NL600...is this the overbet we're supposed to do?

[Garland]

Opponent stats:

VP$IP = 15.31 and Pre-flop Raise % = 3.51 over 1339 hands.

Garland

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

UTG+1 ($573)
MP1 ($1089.75)
MP2 ($324.70)
MP3 ($385.30)
CO ($576)
Button ($221)
SB ($376)
BB ($573.35)
Garland ($598.05)

Preflop: Garland is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $3.
Garland calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($21) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Garland bets $14</font>, UTG+1 calls $14, BB folds.

Turn: ($49) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Garland checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Garland raises to $105</font>, UTG+1 calls $70.

River: ($259) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Garland bets $473.05 (All-In)</font>

[BobboFitos]

check raise

[ClaytonN]

hard to make a good read without any good notes on his post flop aggression. any ideas?

[Garland]

I messed this up.

I initially put villain on a single 9. However my thinking is incorrect: His stats absolutely do not support him having any hand UTG with a single 9. Way too tight for it.

In addition, if he had a 9, he'd be sure to bet it on the river, where I raise all-in. If he has a busted draw with big cards, I give him a chance to bluff. The same results will happen if he happened to have JJ.

Bobbo got it right and nothing more needed to be said. I should have check-raised, clear as day.

Results: Villain thinks for a few seconds and folds.

Garland

I like the overbet at the river. Look like you are going to get pay off by a 9 most of the time. Hope you don't run into 99.

[soah]

The hands that fold on the river also take a free showdown when offered.

[yvesaint]

i dont really see him having a 9 here a lot, unless he's "mixing it up" with T9 or 98 or something. does a value bet look bad here? if you check, he definitely checks behind Jx, but what if you bet like 100? he probably raises with a 9, and you get it in anyways, but will still call with AJ? no?

though when he flat calls your turn raise, hes got to have something. most likely a strong J to me.

[Bukem_]

Sometimes I bet $100 here. Pretty hard for a jack to fold, pretty tempting for a missed draw to bluff all in. Any nine pushes anyways.

[ninjia3x]

Just wondering, can you see a 9 checking behind Garland? He doesn't have a whole lot to value bet here.

[scdavis0]

I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[kipin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak....

[zeero3]

I agree w/ Soah. Overbet and hope for a call here.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're very weak tight but you can't possibly be serious here.

[bigfishead]

This hand reaks of a busted draw on the river. Your only chance for payoff is a heart or str8 card IMO. In that case I love the overbet. Many made hands will call thinking you spiked the 9's only.

[Kirkrrr]

Looks good to me. I don't see him laydown down jacks full here anywhere near enough to not justify the overbet.

Edit: jacks or Nine's full, that is. The pot is pretty big.

Kirk

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're very weak tight but you can't possibly be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the guy goes crazy on a J996 turn and then checks when the board double pairs on the river, what hand am I supposed to be getting value from with just a naked 9? I'm not going to check because I know he has quads or jacks full or J9, but because I'm going to put him squarely on either a bluff, the same hand, or a better hand.

[Hattifnatt]

Perfect time for the overbet IMO. nh

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
check raise

[/ QUOTE ]

At first I liked the overbet lead, but now I see that this is winning so much more money over the longrun. A 9 or JJ is all-in no matter what the line. Any non-9 has a shot to donate if checked to.

vnh

[Leptyne]

My stats tell me that the only possible holdings for UTG+1 are 99, JJ, AJs. JJ should raise pre-flop, but with such low PFR one could not rule out a limp here. The play is a standard line for a flopped over-full, trying to help you make something and keep you in the pot. The turn call also fits the line for the over-full. On the river it won't make any difference what you do. The over-full or quads will put their money in. An AJs will fold or check behind.

Line looks solid to me.

Nice hand.

Dumle