Value bet this river?

[Isura]

I didn't realize this was a nl50 table until this hand. No stats or reads. Easy value bet on the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($34.54)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($47.65)</font>
MP ($134.61)
CO ($191)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($47)</font>
SB ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $3, MP folds.

Flop: ($8.25) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($22.25) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7.

River: ($36.25) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $36.25

[GrunchCan]

I suspect that this is a mandatory value bet on the end. And I admit that this is probably the weakest part of my game right now. I make this check all the time, just like you did.

[Mercman572]

If you value bet this you commit to calling a push given stack sizes. Besides that, I don't think many hands you beat from UTG call your value bet. Turn he might be taking a crack with a small PP that didn't hit the flop and expects a fold (after all your AK missed if he thinks like alot of these players /images/graemlins/tongue.gif). Check is fine IMO.

[GrunchCan]

Evwerything you just said is why I usually check. But I can't help but feel that I'm missing a huge chunk of my BB/100 by making these checks based on 'no hand you beat can call' reasoning.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Evwerything you just said is why I usually check. But I can't help but feel that I'm missing a huge chunk of my BB/100 by making these checks based on 'no hand you beat can call' reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it really depends on the board and your ability to fold if checkraised given the stack sizes. Here villains most likely holdings are 10x, a pair of 3s or 4s, or pp 55-88. The turn bet looks like it was meant to take down the pot. If he really had a 10 he'd probably lead the river since hero only called rather than raised. Value betting here is determined by how likely you think villain will call with a small pair vs how often you think he will c/r AI.

I'd value bet this much more often if my bet didn't commit me to calling a checkraise since you'll have so little left in a huge pot.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd value bet this much more often if my bet didn't commit me to calling a checkraise since you'll have so little left in a huge pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. It seems that we're risking all of villain's stack when behind, but we only get that first bet when ahead (since he doesn't check/raise with a worst hand).

I dont see what betting does here. What will he call you with that you have beat? Only thing I can think of is a small-mid pocket pair. None of the draws got there either. If he's an awful player he might look you up with an A4 or A3.

Not to mention any bet commits you to calling a check-raise.

I think you're ahead most of the time here, but shouldn't be because you won't get called by a worse hand. If he really hit a ten and leads the turn, why wouldn't he bet the river? I think if villian is CR happy, then he would hit it on turn and then push river. In reality, I feel 99 is the most likely hand and he doesn't think you have a ten at the beginning of the turn (or he was just making a stab at the pot since you're most likely to have overcards rather than an overpair).

Anyone disagree?

[wdeadwyler]

Easy value bet, a mid PP or something like JJ or QQ will look you up around 100% of the time here. If he has a ten or 88 make a note he is a donk checkraiser and remember that next time. I bet around 1/3 of the pot on the river, enough that he has to call and hates it.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a good point. It seems that we're risking all of villain's stack when behind, but we only get that first bet when ahead (since he doesn't check/raise with a worst hand).


[/ QUOTE ]


Good point. In situations like these, I find myself pushing more and more often. You will get called (and win) more often than you would think.
Or, if you're damn sure he won't c/r without beating you, you could bet small (1/3-1/2) and fold to the c/r. If he's not tricky at all its a decent line.

In your particular situation, QQ/JJ are the hands that you want to call, but I'm not sure that he would have those, most would raise preflop with them I would think. His play is consistent with missed clubs, if he would limp a suited connector or something like that utg.
I might check behind here, i don't think he has a calling hand often enough to make it worth it.

just one thing. I know you are really committed after you bet and he c/r, but if he "only does it with a better hand" then why do you have to call. If you bet like 12 and he put you in, cant you save the last 18? I could be wrong, but it seems like a fruitless call. I think I would bet 12 and fold to all in, but maybe there's a reason I'm not the one with their name in green /images/graemlins/smile.gif

He either has a boat / a ten or he has a small pair. Check.

nh, stack sizes dictate alot here

[Andrew Fletcher]

Why not re-raise the turn? If you're just going to call the turn bet, then I think a check on the river makes sense.

Jesus, bet this frickin turn. In a raised pot, he never checks a T or boat to you here. He could easily have a small pp, put you on whiffed AK or club draw, but was too much of a wuss to cr and put his stack in on the flop with his read.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see what betting does here. What will he call you with that you have beat? Only thing I can think of is a small-mid pocket pair. None of the draws got there either. If he's an awful player he might look you up with an A4 or A3.

Not to mention any bet commits you to calling a check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

you could just quote me next time /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy value bet, a mid PP or something like JJ or QQ will look you up around 100% of the time here. {/quote]

I discount these hands being possibilities. How often do you see them limped UTG and checked when unders flop?

[ QUOTE ]

I bet around 1/3 of the pot on the river, enough that he has to call and hates it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Enough to reopen the betting but fold him anyway when he has trash? I've gotten burned on these in the past when villain C/red, it's not worth it IMO. The times he's willing to call with a very small pair have to be significantly more than the times he is planning a checkraise or calls down with a better hand (though unlikely) for that to be profitable.

The value added just isn't that much, if you ever consider folding to a push I REALLY hate it. That's why I'd need enough to be able to fold to a CR if I bet Half pot. There at least you add significantly more value with your bet that you're risking giving up a showdown with.

[Bukem_]

Raise the turn. Check the river.

[soah]

I'd much rather raise the turn than bet the river. Betting the scare card on the turn usually means they didn't hit it, so the main possibilities are a pocket pair, or a flush draw. His bet is pretty weak though, and it looks more like an attempt to find out if his 99 is good than a serious attempt to move you off a hand. But I have no idea how players bet their hands at these stakes, so I might be way off.

Raising the turn pretty much commits you though, so you have to balance the extra EV of driving out a flush draw versus the lost EV of paying off with the worst hand. (Of course, if a worse hand will pay off to you then that should be factored in as well. Again, that's something I can't comment on at these stakes.)

[wdeadwyler]

UTG play is much more indicative of an small-medium pair than a 10 in my opinion. When villain leads turn at these stakes I tend to put them on a weaker hand, I would expect some sort of c/minraise if villain had a real hand. I dont mind calling the turn, but if villain checks the river we have to value bet.

As for my 1/3 pot value bet, I am calling a c/r all in obviously. However, for villain to take this line with a hand better than mine is bizarre, and I expect a huge percentage of to get paid off by a worse pocket pair or something like 8A.

[rachelwxm]

bet river.