BJ: dealer has a better chance to win...

[wslee00]

hi all - can you guys PLEASE shut my friend up and tell him that the anchorman does NOT give the dealer an advantage... i.e., if the anchorman hits on a 15 when the dealer shows a 6 and he happens to get a 10 and the dealer gets a 4. But of course, the opposite case can happen where the anchorman gets the 4 and the dealer gets the 10.

I would like any math examples, any websites, any anything that will just shut this guy up!

[ohnonotthat]

Hey, if I was able to explain to my girlfriend why SHE needed to take penicillin for the, um, "kidney infection" that I got down in Mexico /images/graemlins/smirk.gif this should be easy.

Maybe this will help him to see the light.



The order of the cards is arbitrary.

Hitting a stiff from third base when the dealer shows vulnerable WILL sometimes hurt the table. However, standing will also sometimes hurt the table. In fact, you will sometimes hurt the table by sitting out, or by rushing back after having sat out.

The relevant factor is that there is no way to know beforehand; the effect(s) of these are events can only be seen in retrospect.

In most locales, a new dealer will burn a card even when in the middle of a shoe. In a few places he or she will burn 2 or more [cards]. Explain to him that this act is also apt to "mess with the order of the cards" but as with the unreliable anchorman there is no way to use this [arbitrary] behavior to predict future events.



Now allow me to help you to see why YOUR way of looking at this situation may be wrong.

If your friend is an otherwise intelligent fellow who, for one reason or another, is simply an easy mark for the "pull my finger" routine - why not just let him enjoy himself.

If he's not altering his blackjack strategy to adhere to this ridiculous belief and - FAR more importantly - if he's able to avoid these instances of "brain-freeze" in all other areas, it's more humane to simply allow him to believe in this, the boogeyman, and the other silly stuff we buy into before we wisen up.

[AaronBrown]

In addition to ohnonotthat's excellent reply I would add there is a deep and abiding superstition among blackjack players that bad play by other players at the table hurts the good players. Your friend has a relatively rational version of the superstition, I have heard much worse.

In general, it almost always helps the players slightly if another player hits. This is because the hit card gives them information, which they can use to their (slight) advantage. The dealer cannot use the information because her play is forced. You can construct examples where the hit causes a small disadvantage to other players, but they're unrealistic.

I think the superstition survives from the home game where the dealer does have choices. In most versions, it helps the dealer if a player busts, because the dealer is then free to optimize his play for the remaining players. So in home games, players will urge you not to hit anything that might bust, even if it's to your advantage to do so.