Curtains Hand #1 (1C5)- Bubble play

[1C5]

Fold, push PF, call and see flop, or a stop and go no matter what cards?

Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB (t3263)
Hero (t1020)
UTG (t2618)
Button (t3099)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ?

[Scuba Chuck]

Other than normal bubble play, has bigstack been bullying? Or, rather, has he been playing very tight?

[1C5]

Average, nothing to stand out while 8 tabling.

[KingDan]

I push. I hate the stop and go with an ace.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Average, nothing to stand out while 8 tabling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does he normally steal with small bets like this?

[ChoicestHops]

Push it. You're the short stack in the BB with an above marginal hand to defend a steal.

[J-Lo]

more importantly is, why didn't SB come over the top?

[EnderFFX]

If there is nothing that stands out, then odds are I'm pushing. I play the $10's/$20's though.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
more importantly is, why didn't SB come over the top?

[/ QUOTE ]

The strategy of just coming over the top of anyone who has less chips than you on the bubble, is very overrated. I wouldn't raise without a good hand as the SB...the risk is too high in a world where people may call with something like 55.

[curtains]

Btw I will only chime in with my final opinion once no one has responded for an hour OR if the thread has been posted for 24 hours.

[Matt R.]

Stop and go.

[bennies]

I always push here. Lowstacked, we need chips, A9 probably beats villains range. Or it's a coin flip, and this is fine.

Stop n' go might be an idea if someone else was lowstacked as well.

[LesJ]

If curtains' stack here was even 1300-1400, the easy answer would be push. At only 1000 chips, however, he has practically zero fold equity against the big stack. If he folds this tho, he will be down to 800 and if he has to lay down on the sb, then just 700. He really doesnt have much time to make a stand and I truly think he is ahead here.
I say lets push, and hope our ace holds up.
Les

well a push has no fold equity. i would fold this. you can push a later hand and steal some blinds. i dont like stop and go either. i fold. i 10 table the 55's.... so take my advice with caution.

Stop and go.. I'm checking if I hit an A or trip 9s though.

[microbet]

He minraised. Because SB is in the way, it is much more likely he wanted to be able to fold to SB than just limpin g because he wants action. Pretty much regardless, I think your hand is too strong and your chip position too weak to let this go. Push.

Edit: Not stop-n-go.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
He minraised. Because SB is in the way, it is much more likely he wanted to be able to fold to SB than just limpin g because he wants action. Pretty much regardless, I think your hand is too strong and your chip position too weak to let this go. Push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Different story if there is parity among the stacks. You're going to have to do something at some point. You're FE is dwindling and the blinds moving around fast. You still have FE over the button and he could be doing this with a lot. Time is a luxury you don't have.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
You still have FE over the button and he could be doing this with a lot

[/ QUOTE ]
If hero pushes, isn't button getting 5-2 to call another t620 or so? Isn't that an automatic call for the button?

[Paul Thomson]

If one of the other stacks were a little smaller (less than 1200), I'd probably fold and try and steal their blind. But if you fold this hand and the SB, then a push will not significantly effect any of the other stacks. So given the situation, I'd use a stop n go, since pushing gives the button nearly 2-1 odds to call.

Do you guys use the stop and go a lot here? I've seen a lot of calls by bigstacks with just overcards to flop lately against shorty's stop and gos. Anyone else noticed this stop-and-go "defense" being used? Anyone else make calls like that? Anyway, I hardly ever stop-and-go. Leak?

[AA suited]

why is this called a Curtains hand if IC5 is posting it? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Matt R.]

I always forget to use it myself. But I really don't see the point in *not* using it in this instance. You're getting called preflop if you push. You might NOT get called if you simply call preflop and then push the flop. I really don't see any advantage here by pushing preflop... unless the guy is not good and will fold getting ridiculous pot odds. A9o is too good to fold to a button min-raise given the stack sizes, but you really don't want to get called with A9o. I have to think the stop 'n go gives you more fold equity than a pre-flop push. Even if the increase in FE is only a small amount, a small amount is plenty to make it the better play.

[sofere]

IMO A9 is too strong to fold in this situation. Your ahead of villains range and the next lowest stack is at 2618. If you don't make your stand here you'll have no fold equity in the future.

I don't like stop and go with any two here cause it really doesn't add all that much fold equity.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Hero should fold, IMO. I only play $11-$33, but when someone enters pot, especially with a raise, they rarely lay the hand down, and A9 is not strong enough to play here. Let's see what everyone else thinks...

[ilya]

Hero must play here IMO. He is by far the shortest stack and is on the verge of running out of FE. Also, if he folds here there is no guarantee that he will have an opportunity to open-push in the next couple of hands, as the other stacks may well keep raising each other to take advantage of the fact that Hero is short.
I prefer pushing preflop to a stop-and-go, because the only hands Button is likely to fold to a stop-and-go for just 600 more on the flop are hands that Hero is 60/40 or better against.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero must play here IMO. He is by far the shortest stack and is on the verge of running out of FE. Also, if he folds here there is no guarantee that he will have an opportunity to open-push in the next couple of hands, as the other stacks may well keep raising each other to take advantage of the fact that Hero is short.
I prefer pushing preflop to a stop-and-go, because the only hands Button is likely to fold to a stop-and-go for just 600 more on the flop are hands that Hero is 60/40 or better against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude if my opponent folds a hand that has a 40 percent chance to beat me on the flop, this is a major accomplishment for me, and I mean MAJOR, in a game where elimiantion is such a disaster.

In any case I did stop+go, missed the flop completely, and was successful, as my opponent folded. Probably the difference between the two plays is pretty slim, but I feel that stop+going was correct in this case, as I feel they would have almost surely called preflop with such a stack for only about 600 more.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero must play here IMO. He is by far the shortest stack and is on the verge of running out of FE. Also, if he folds here there is no guarantee that he will have an opportunity to open-push in the next couple of hands, as the other stacks may well keep raising each other to take advantage of the fact that Hero is short.
I prefer pushing preflop to a stop-and-go, because the only hands Button is likely to fold to a stop-and-go for just 600 more on the flop are hands that Hero is 60/40 or better against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude if my opponent folds a hand that has a 40 percent chance to beat me on the flop, this is a major accomplishment for me, and I mean MAJOR, in a game where elimiantion is such a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant that Villain would only fold hands on the flop that would be 40% or less against you if you pushed preflop &amp; he called.

edit: never mind, I think I misread your post.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
more importantly is, why didn't SB come over the top?

[/ QUOTE ]

The strategy of just coming over the top of anyone who has less chips than you on the bubble, is very overrated. I wouldn't raise without a good hand as the SB...the risk is too high in a world where people may call with something like 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, couldn't you argue that your hand has far too much value to do a stop n go here? Specifically, don't you want him to call with a hand like 55 or KQ? You need to double up here.

[curtains]

Of course I don't want him to call with a hand like 55 or KQ!!!! What crazy universe of sit and go playing have I entered? You want to be called by a hand that is either 40%-55% against you when there are already 700 chips in the pot, just to win an extra 600?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I don't want him to call with a hand like 55 or KQ!!!! What crazy universe of sit and go playing have I entered? You want to be called by a hand that is either 40%-55% against you when there are already 700 chips in the pot, just to win an extra 600?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you don't want to get called by 55. It's a disaster. Getting called by KQo preflop would be a lesser disaster at the worst as it is +$EV to call there preflop if he shows you KQo, but stop-and-go may give a higher $EV. I don't think he's folding KQ on the flop though, at least not unless you would have had him beat.
But I think you're right that a stop-and-go is better, as it gives pretty much the same $EV against hands like KQ and 55, but increases your $EV a bunch against hands like K8s.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
more importantly is, why didn't SB come over the top?

[/ QUOTE ]

The strategy of just coming over the top of anyone who has less chips than you on the bubble, is very overrated. I wouldn't raise without a good hand as the SB...the risk is too high in a world where people may call with something like 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, couldn't you argue that your hand has far too much value to do a stop n go here? Specifically, don't you want him to call with a hand like 55 or KQ? You need to double up here.

[/ QUOTE ]

God no. You'll take having 1700ish every time than having to go 60/40 or 50/50 for 2500ish.

[bennies]

The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate (it must be pretty late where you live /images/graemlins/tongue.gif).

I still think you are wrong - mostly because the pot is not 1700 chips but only 900! 600 more in it would mean a lot for hero.

Of course you are right about not taking chances on the bubble, but as I said in an earlier response this comes into play more if there are other short stacks. Here, Hero is way outchipped by everyone and he can't afford not to try and win these extra 600 chips (even if there is a 23% chance of villain sucking out).

Well, it's not totally clearcut, you made good points about pot splitting etc, but I think preflop pushing is the best.

Stop &amp; go. You've got squat for FE, and three cards is better than five. A question, what hands do you push here because you want a call? Obviously AA-QQ. I think I'd push AK and AQ, but what about AJ and 88-JJ. In other words, how much of an advantage do you want to risk it all? 70/30, 75/25, 80/20?

Will

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate (it must be pretty late where you live /images/graemlins/tongue.gif).

I still think you are wrong - mostly because the pot is not 1700 chips but only 900! 600 more in it would mean a lot for hero.

Of course you are right about not taking chances on the bubble, but as I said in an earlier response this comes into play more if there are other short stacks. Here, Hero is way outchipped by everyone and he can't afford not to try and win these extra 600 chips (even if there is a 23% chance of villain sucking out).

Well, it's not totally clearcut, you made good points about pot splitting etc, but I think preflop pushing is the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

eeeeh, math time out... . I'm glad I saw this before tigerite or someone lost all respect for me. Anyway, curtains is more correct than me, Hero risks 1520 (not 900 like I said) to win 620. As curtains said pushing preflop is probably +CEV but not +$EV because it's bubble time.

However, other things might make up for it. For one, Hero probably has a tiny amount of FE preflop (at least he would at the 55's). For another, when we flop an A we loose money the times we don't double up.

I think I prefer s n going now though.. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Custer]

To add to Curtains' point, the 900 chips already in the pot once you call are worth much more per chip than the extra 600 chips you might win. IMO, it is almost never correct to play your hand in such a way where you will need to win a showdown to take the pot on the bubble.

moses

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble!

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't there 900 in the pot PF? Leaving hero with 600 (620). So, on the flop hero puts in his remaining 600 and villain faces a 600 to win 1500 decision.

Just sort of to help myself through stop'n'go theory, working with the A9 vs Q8 assumption:

If hero pushes PF, villain has the option to call 600 to win 1500 which is 2.5:1. As a 60:40 underdog, that's an easy call.

If hero pushes on the flop, villain has the same call 600 to win 1500 (2.5:1) option. But, if the flop has missed villain, he's now about a 75:25 underdog and isn't getting the proper odds to call.

Of course, the "if villain misses the flop" part is a big if.

I suppose the thinking is that sometimes villain misses the flop and folds, and when he doesn't the net effect is the same as pushing PF.

Have I got it right so far?

Does that mean that to really answer the stop'n'go vs PF push question we have to determine the a priori value of the turn and river? This little text box is a bit small for me to try to work that out, especially given: I might be wrong; and if I'm right someone else might volunteer it.

[curtains]

900, 1700 ...whats the difference! /images/graemlins/smile.gif Anyway I dunno the way to phrase it, I just know we are risking a lot of chips to win an extra 600.

My general rule of thumb is to try to win pots uncontested late in events instead of gambling for a bit extra, even if I think it might be +CEV. It's possible that this might not be correct in this given hand. But damn, I dunno, maybe they are capable of folding 22 on a really ugly board. I mean the board was KTx what the hell could he possibly have that is such a huge underdog? Only ridiculous hands like Q8, 87. I don't know that our opponents are restricted to just folding hands like that..They fold way too often for me to believe they always have some totally hopeless hand like this.

[curtains]

btw the good news about this hand is the difference in EV each way is probably very small..so its not a huge deal if you play it one way compared to another.

[liucipher]

Out of curiosity, is A9o pretty much the lower bound of hands you're pushing (and/or stop-n-going) here?

[Degen]

whats wrong with folding?

poooooossssssshhhhhhhhh

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, is A9o pretty much the lower bound of hands you're pushing (and/or stop-n-going) here?

[/ QUOTE ]

btw folding preflop here is flat out terrible. Your hand is way too strong against a huge stack button raiser, and you are BY far in last place in chips and have only 5x the BB. If you would even consider folding this for a second, you have a drastic hole.

I wouldn't fold most aces here. You have no room to wait around for a good hand at this point.

the bad thing about a stop n go is - obviously any flop is only going to hit any player roughly 33% of the time, so first villain gets 33% chance of hitting his hand (that's the good news). what this doesn't take into consideration is that villain can already have a pocket pair and if that is the case then villain would be pretty silly to fold to a 600 bet when pot is 900, he would be getting proper odds to call.

In summary, villain will hit his hand 33% of the time and if he has a pocket pair already he ain't foldin'. I think a push is right here. Even though you have little or no FE, it is outweighed by the fact that you need to accumulate chips to avoid busting out on the bubble and this looks like a good spot to double up, time is getting short with this SMALLISH stack.

[fluorescenthippo]

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't fold most aces here. You have no room to wait around for a good hand at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about hands like KQ and 66?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
what about hands like KQ and 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding either of these hands would be terrible.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that bennies's argument is weak. but you miss a couple of points.

[ QUOTE ]
not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

with A9 you usually will not face a big risk of a chop from a smaller A. this would be more valid if you had something like A6. getting called there would mean you're a ~88% favorite, which is enough that you want a call.

[ QUOTE ]
from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's flat wrong. when he misses and you flop an A (or a 9 if he has two cards below 9) you hate for him to fold.

the biggest question in my mind is how often you'll be able to get all the chips in when you flop a pair.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero must play here IMO. He is by far the shortest stack and is on the verge of running out of FE. Also, if he folds here there is no guarantee that he will have an opportunity to open-push in the next couple of hands, as the other stacks may well keep raising each other to take advantage of the fact that Hero is short.
I prefer pushing preflop to a stop-and-go, because the only hands Button is likely to fold to a stop-and-go for just 600 more on the flop are hands that Hero is 60/40 or better against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude if my opponent folds a hand that has a 40 percent chance to beat me on the flop, this is a major accomplishment for me, and I mean MAJOR, in a game where elimiantion is such a disaster.

In any case I did stop+go, missed the flop completely, and was successful, as my opponent folded. Probably the difference between the two plays is pretty slim, but I feel that stop+going was correct in this case, as I feel they would have almost surely called preflop with such a stack for only about 600 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you stop and go most hands you play in this situation? I assume you push your big pairs as he is committed to calling and you don't want him to fold the flop.

What about AK/AQ? I hate the stop and go with these hands, because a large portion of the time he folds, you will want him to call (flop a or k)

[curtains]

Of course I want a call when he misses and I hit, but I was saying that OVERALL on all the flops where he misses, I probably don't want a call. Meaning that if I knew for sure that by calling preflop I would get him to fold every flop he missed, I would take this deal. Of course when I hit an ace, I can also consider checking as well, in which case my opp will bet a large % of the time.

Note that this is in reply to schwaza, I forgot to quote.

[curtains]

I stop+go very rarely overall. It just seemed like a decent spot. I mean honestly my decision was made with a maximum of 5-10 seconds of thought (You dont want to think too much when planning a stop+go IMO). I still thnik a stop+go is okay, but I believe the difference between stop+go and just pushing here, is very close and its hard to say either way which is correct.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]



with A9 you usually will not face a big risk of a chop from a smaller A. this would be more valid if you had something like A6. getting called there would mean you're a ~88% favorite, which is enough that you want a call.



[/ QUOTE ]

Well my point was that when 2 overcards come to my nine, then I do risk a decent chance of a chop, and these are the most likely hands for my opponent to fold something like A4. Its a lot more likely they will fold a KQ3 flop than a K62 flop.

[pergesu]

I'm not sure how this thread has gone on three pages.

This should be a very obvious stop n go.
1. Your hand is too good to fold preflop
2. You want to win this pot without showing down
3. Button will call nearly 100% of the time preflop

Somebody said that seeing the flop doesn't add much FE, but it adds enough to make this the right play imo. Button is NOT folding his hand preflop, but if he misses he will often make the mistake of folding to an all-in.

I'm not sure what curtains did here, because I just read the first page and couldn't take it anymore. I'd be incredibly surprised to find he did anything other than SNG here.

[curtains]

I stopped and go'ed, I don't think its really that clear as you say...meaning the difference between the two plays is extremely minor.