Bet how much on flop?

[tewall]

Here's a situation I've been thinking about. Say the blinds are 25/50, and you and the Big Blind have 750. Only he calls your PF raise of 150. You don't have any reads on him, and your image is tight. The flop misses you, and he checks. So the pot has 325 and both you and he have 600 left. What do you do?

It seems to me either going all-in or betting a half pot are reasonable plays. Are there reasons to prefer one over the other? Do your cards and the flop change your decision? (remembering that the flop missed you)

[tewall]

If you compare this to a typical all-in situation where you have a stack of 10xBB, here you are betting 600 to win 325, as opposed to 600 to win 90 (if the blinds were 30/60). Plus your less likely to be called then if you go all-in pre-flop. So both these facts argue that going all-in is a favorable bet. OTOH, if you do get called, you're probably in much worse shape than in the all-in pre-flop with 10xBB situation. But still, it's not likely your opponent will have a hand he can call with.

However, it's also true that betting a half-pot is a favorable bet, and will difficult for an opponent to call.

Going all-in would likely chase out hands, such as lesser pairs or draws, that might call or come over the top to a half-pot bet. But the half-pot bet doesn't commit all your chips to a hand that missed.

[tewall]

No one thinks this is an interesting question but me?

[tewall]

It appears to me that betting a half pot is slightly better than going all in, but it's difficult to say as it depends upon what assumptions one makes about the probability of being called. Betting a half pot, the plan is to fold to a raise. I estimated that half-pot bet would win 60% of the time. I estimated the all-in bet would win 85% of the time. (do these estimates seem reasonable?)

If there's an Ace on flop, that would seem to edge even more towards a half-pot bet, but OTOH on a board with a lot of draws possible, the half-pot bet might be worse as it would be goading someone into coming over the top when you couldn't call.

[xLukex]

Bet half the pot is the blinds are 25/50.

Go all in if the blinds are bigger and there are less spots you can maneuver.

IE if this is 75/150 and you are in the same position (relative stacks to the blinds), yeah, then you can push.

[tewall]

Thanks for the response. The other thing that makes a half-pot bet a little bet I think is that at the 25/50 level there's more people playing. So you don't gain so much by increasing your stack as you do later on when there's fewer people, hence the risk/reward ration is worse than later on.

What made me think of the all-in play is that:
a)Compared to 10xBB situation, your risking 600 to win 325 rather than 600 to win 90 (if the blinds were 30/60)
b)It's less likely that you'll be called than when you push later one.

However, on the down side, when you do get called, you're in worse trouble, and even though you gain more (325 vs. 90 later), that 90 is worth more later than now (with fewer players playing).

[player1]

i'll usually bet 150 again, then check the turn if called. if he checks again on the river, then prolly push. i think there still is "plenty" of play left, even with 425 left (after you post the SB).

jc

[downtown]

Hi tewall,

Your post reminded me of a hand I posted a while back here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=305144 5&fpart=&PHPSESSID=) That may help you out a little. Without any other information that may sway my decision, I tend to push in the situation you describe.

[tewall]

Thanks, I'll take a look.

I've been thinking about it to me more, and it seems to me that the half-pot bet is better if the other guy has a similar stack to yours, but all in is better if he has a larger stack (but not so large that losing 600 doesn't hurt, in which case 150 is probably better).

I did the math making the assumptions that all-in would win 85% of the time, and 150 60% of the time. I don't know how reasonable those numbers are. That's the tought part of the analysis, coming up with reasonable guesses as to how likely the opponent is to fold.

Another factor would be how many players are left. The fewer players there are, the more you stand to gain when the opponent folds, and the mathematics shifts more towards pushing.

[tewall]

Interesting thought on pushing at the river. My thought was be done with the hand unless improve. At the river you'd be betting 450 to win 625. Unless I had reason to think my opponent was on a draw, I think I'd prefer to take my chances with the 450 left.

[tewall]

Yes, it's similar, but there's two differences. One is you posted a specific hand, where you know you have 2 overcards. The other is that you are OOP (unfortunately you were called by the button and not by a blind). If I had been called by a blind, and the blind bet into me, I would fold, because I would expect someone betting into me after I had shown strength pre-flop to have strength.

In the hand you posted, I think pushing is the right play, and I think it's clear. It's a difficult call for the button, even if he has a Jack. A smaller bet, and he might call, which you definately don't want, let alone him coming over the top. Also with 6 outs if he does call and you're behind, you still have almost a 1 in 4 chance of sucking out. So I like pushing here.

Thanks for the link. It's a very common scenario to fold a bunch of hands, and then get to a situation where you start thinking about stealing, or wake up with a legitamate raising hand which misses the flop, so it's good to have a plan of attack in mind.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi tewall,

Your post reminded me of a hand I posted a while back here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=305144 5&fpart=&PHPSESSID=) That may help you out a little. Without any other information that may sway my decision, I tend to push in the situation you describe.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? with 600 in stack and 325 in the middle i'd cbet 200 here hit or miss. stack would have to be more like 450 before i'd just push (and i'm kinda fishy - i'd be much more likely to push with something like a gutshot than if i had AA - i'd likely bet 175 with AA).