15/30 A flop decision with TPTK - AJo

[Surfbullet]

MP2 is 41/8
BB is 30/11

Not enough hands for AF etc. As a whole, too loose, and too aggressive, though content to call pf.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Surf is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Surf raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Surf bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Surf...?

Surf

[toss]

I'd call on the basis that they're over aggro and see if any one caps.

I would fold the flop, The BB just check 3 bet the flop, he has a 7 here almost every time. Even if you somehow have the best hand and you make a bad fold on the flop, any K,Q or heart will likely kill your hand anyways. Given this flop action you will be behind to trips about 95% of the time, and the other 5% of the time when you some how do have the best hand on the flop, you will still be an underdog to have the best hand by the river. Obviously I made up these percentages but you get the idea. I think this is a clear fold.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
I would cap the flop, The BB just check 3 bet the flop, he has a 7 here almost never.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

Actually, I like both toss's plan, as well as capping. I'd definitely be very vary of MP1. His play looks like either a flush draw or a 7. If he wakes up on the turn, I'm probably folding, barring a read that he makes completely donkish plays, like bluffing a field of 3 flop aggressors with 6-high.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would cap the flop, The BB just check 3 bet the flop, he has a 7 here almost never.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

Actually, I like both toss's plan, as well as capping. I'd definitely be very vary of MP1. His play looks like either a flush draw or a 7. If he wakes up on the turn, I'm probably folding, barring a read that he makes completely donkish plays, like bluffing a field of 3 flop aggressors with 6-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

these were my thoughts as well.

I capped, call-call.

Turn is the A/images/graemlins/club.gif and BB donkbets. I..? What's my plan if I see action from MP? What about possible river cards?

Surf

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
I capped, call-call.

Turn is the A/images/graemlins/club.gif and BB donkbets. I..? What's my plan if I see action from MP? What about possible river cards?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming "call-call" means BB, MP1, and MP2 all called?

I hate this situation. You're trapped being 2 possible LAGs + potential slowplayed trips.

A couple questions: over how many hands do you have those stats on the players? Even if it's not enough for AF to converge, is it enough for VPIP to converge? Any stats on MP1?

If MP2 folded, I think it's an easy call to see what MP1 does. If he raises, I'm folding some large percentage of the time. If I were in the situation, I'd probably pussy out and call the donk bet, but I'm not convinced it's the best play.

I guess I'm afraid of raising and then getting 3-bet by MP1, and now the pot is laying me some huge amount on my calldown, enough for me to convince myself that it's +EV to do so, just in case MP1 is pulling some huge donk move. This is only if MP2 and BB fold, though. I'd have a hard time imagining your hand was good if you raised, MP1 3-bet and either MP2 or BB still wanted to see the river.

Sorry, I got kind of lost in my own thoughts there. I'm thinking it's close between calling and seeing MP1's action or raising, with the only point of a raise being to charge flush draws. If you do raise and get 3-bet, the pot's laying you enough to draw to your 4-outer. The river sucks in this situation because it's always easy for me to convince myself to call 1 more bet, since the pot's like 5 kajillion BBs by now, and my hand "may be good 1 in x times".

I don't know what to say about the river. If it's an A, J, or maybe a 7, I'll put in some action on the river. If it's a /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and MP1 didn't wake up on the turn, I'd be wary. If it's anything else, I think it could basically be considered a blank.

EDIT: Actually, I think maybe a call is good, because any A or J has few to no outs against your hand. The main reason for a raise would be to charge flush draws. Unless MP2 or BB is known to play draws very aggressively, it's not likely they have one. Also, calling saves you a bet if MP1 decides to wake up with a raise.

[me454555]

If we assume that one of them has a flush draw, other is equally likely to have a 7 or J.

Going by pokerstove numbers if they've got a J and its worse you've got 43% equity. If he's got a 7 you've got only 9% equity or so. If you split the difference, I figure you've got about 26% equity. I think you can still call the flop bet but if a heart hits you'll have to fold the turn or river.