JJ vs. a guy who doesn't trust me

[imported_smoove]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP3 was 36/8/1.2 over 500 hands. Button and SB were both LAGgy. MP3 had seen me raise preflop 3 or 4 times from LP, only to fold the flop to one of his donks. After this, it seemed he coldcalled me a bit more often. Even though I was MP1 this time, I had a feeling he might be trying to isolate me with a sub-premium hand.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

<font color="blue">Well, only one over.</font>

Turn: (10 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, SB folds.

<font color="blue">Given my read that MP3 thinks I'm bit of a LAG, I would have expected him to raise me on the flop with a king. Ok leading out again?</font>

River: (12 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

<font color="blue">One more stab? He still hasn't shown me he's ahead.</font>

Final Pot: 14 BB

[Nick C]

Another option would be to check-call the river and give MP3 a chance to try to steal from you with a busted gutshot.

But, anyway, the hand looks fine to me. Hopefully what you got called with on the river was a worse pocket pair (99, for instance) or ace-high.

[pauliewalnuts]

I agree with Nick. This hand looks pretty good. Its entirely possible he has AT or 99, so value betting the river is +EV in my opinion. Only thing I can see this playing this way that beats you is QQ.

[Harv72b]

Perfectly played, given your read on the villain.

And given the way you think he sees you, I don't like the check/call option on the river. I think he'll check behind with a lot of worse hands which he'd call a bet with (i.e., AQ, 99, etc). This looks like a solid value bet situation to me.

[imported_smoove]

Thanks guys. He had AT. I'm glad I had that read and went with it or I might have slowed down at some point.

[newhizzle]

i like it, i could definately see this guy calling with AQ or 99 or something

[goofball]

Just keep betting betting betting. He'd have told you about top pair.

[MrEngenic]

If he raises on any street, do you fold?

[imported_smoove]

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises on any street, do you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the really tough question. If he raised me on the flop after I'd capped preflop...I might start thinking I'd made a bad read. I'd then be tempted to put him on a regular 3-betting range: TT-AA, AK. He probably doesn't have JJ. It's possible he'd try raising the flop with QQ...but everything else beats me. I'd probably fold. If he waited for the turn (a brick), I might think he had just trapped me, and be tempted to fold. If he waited all the way to the river to raise me, I'm probably just call the one bet at that point. What would you do?