$22 Bubble hand; Pre-flop play?

[caretaker1]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t2740)
UTG (t2421)
Button (t973)
SB (t1866)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises to t450</font>, 2 folds</font>, Hero ...

No unusual reads. I felt all dirty how I played it; looking for better.

[splashpot]

I don't think flat calling is that bad.

[11t]

I push this 100% of the time. You have fold equity and TT is a good hand.

[SammyKid11]

Yeah, I like pushing here. You've got him covered, so you have a lot of FE...TT is the fifth-best HU hand -- every now and then he'll have JJ-AA, call, and cripple you (though almost 20% of those times you will outdraw him) -- many times he'll have been raising with something marginal like 88 or AJ and he'll fold. Many times he'll have been raising with something marginal and he'll call and you'll be a favorite to become the huge, all-powerful, way-ahead chip leader.

All in all, a push is very +EV here.

but he's in the bubble, if his opponent has ace/jack and calls, you're flipping a coin on whether to be the chip leader or finish just outside the money + the times he'll bust you with a better hand. Fold EQ is pretty good here but you could raise him with 23o and that'll still be true

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
but he's in the bubble, if his opponent has ace/jack and calls, you're flipping a coin on whether to be the chip leader or finish just outside the money + the times he'll bust you with a better hand. Fold EQ is pretty good here but you could raise him with 23o and that'll still be true

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, you can't be petrified of the good end of a coinflip, even on the bubble. You're not CALLING here...you're re-raising all-in, putting the decision on your opponent (who likely has a worse hand than you AND who has a healthy stack that you cover - ie, he's also going to be scared of busting out to a larger stack and finishing 4th when he had so many chips). Because of that, your FE is quite high. Sure, you'd have the same fold equity with 32o...but not near the same showdown equity to go with it.

The chances he'll fold plus the chances he'll call with a worse hand (only four hands you're behind) plus the chances you can suckout even if he calls with a better hand all add up to a +EV push. I'm not asking you to guess what villain has...I'm asking you to make a decision based on what would be better for you if you found yourself in this spot 1000 times. If every time these particular circumstances were met you were to push, I believe you'd find yourself with more money than if you'd done something different.

[jeffraider]

JAM!

[golfcchs]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I like pushing here. You've got him covered, so you have a lot of FE...TT is the fifth-best HU hand -- every now and then he'll have JJ-AA, call, and cripple you (though almost 20% of those times you will outdraw him) -- many times he'll have been raising with something marginal like 88 or AJ and he'll fold. Many times he'll have been raising with something marginal and he'll call and you'll be a favorite to become the huge, all-powerful, way-ahead chip leader.

All in all, a push is very +EV here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this push is really a lot closer than you think. I is always bad for you when you but heads with the big stack and you are 2nd stack. Bigstack does have a large range, but he is raising UTG and since he seems to be a normal 22'er I say its not a big as you think. Also I dont think you are called by hands you dominate that often. It will usually be overcards or higher pairs.

If this is such an easy push would you make it with 99 or 88?

[SammyKid11]

First of all, in this example Hero is the big stack - villain is the 2nd biggest stack. That is one reason this push is so easy IMO (because his being the 2nd biggest stack gives him SO much to lose - an almost guaranteed placing if he just folds). His range for his initial raise with only three other players is probably somewhere around 55+, AT+, A9s+, KQ, KTs+. That's a LOT of hands he makes his inital raise with that you're crushing.

His CALLING range of your push (given that he's 2nd-big stack and there's a dangerously short stack looming ready to bust out one coinflip away) has got to be signficantly tighter than what he's willing to open-raise with. If I were in his shoes, I'd have trouble calling with less than QQ+, AK. That means a BUNCH of the time here, you're picking up the blinds and his raise with no fight.

Everything is contingent on the one thing you seemed to have missed. HERO is the biggie, villain is 2nd...villain's the one with literally EVERYTHING to lose here.

Yes, I make the same play with 99. 88-66 I might just flat-call and see how the flop shakes out. 55 or lower and I'll probably throw it away.