stupid 1010 hand

[Victor]

unknown button opens, sb (38/8/1.2/400) 3bets i call from the bb with 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif button just calls.

flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

sb bets, i raise, button folds, sb 3bets i call.

turn is 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

bet call

river is offsuit 5.

bet call.

[wheelz]

i'd cap preflop. postflop is fine, i don't think there's any issue with not folding an overpair on the river for one more bet.

[Spicymoose]

I play it the same and pray for AK, A9, or some really overplayed other hand. He is quite agro for his low PRF. I think this may lead support to him falling in love with a preflop hand, and taking it to the extreme.

I could also see raising the turn, but given that we have the flush draw, I am not sure, because getting 3-bet would kinda suck. If we didn't pick up the flush draw, I am definetly raising the turn for a free showdown.

[poker1O1]

he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

[poker1O1]

[ QUOTE ]
he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Also, he's clearly not afraid of the flush draw being completed on the turn.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength

[/ QUOTE ]

he's 3-betting a button open raise. i don't think that shows much strength at all. yeah i see his pfr of 8 over 400 hands, but, he's 3-betting a button open raise.

[Danenania]

His PF raise is 8 and he 3-bet a button steal raise. You're giving waaay too much credit. Folding river would be awful.

Vic - I say cap PF. Rest is well played.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want more people to say this.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he's only 1.2 aggro, nothing too huge. I would actually fold this river. Raising pf out of the SB shows much strength and backed in up on the flop as well. I just dont think you win often enough here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want more people to say this.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need to be good about 10% of the time.

Hand that beat us:
JJ - 6
QQ - 6
KK - 6
AA - 6
99 - 3
88 - 3

30 combos. That means there need to be at least 3 combos of hands we beat.

AK - 16
A9 - 12

There are 28 combos. That means that if he overplays these hands 10% of the time, we should call.

[Bond18]

I agree with the point of PF cap, heres a hand i definately want heads up especially being out of position.

[Fabian]

To me it feels like not capping preflop is a pretty significant error.

[Victor]

people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[Catt]

I'm fine with not capping pre-flop. Sometimes I cap and sometimes I don't. Certain players wil fold for two more pre-flop on a Button steal, and certain players won't. I'd make my decision on whether to cap or not based on (1) perceived opening range, (2) likelihood of Button folding for two more, and, as important if not more so, (3) how I think my cap would influence the flop play -- i.e., if I knew SB would always lead after getting called (and Button didn't cap most everything he steals with when 3-bet), then I'd rather SB have the flop lead. If there was a decent chance that Button would fold to the cap, I'd fire away.

I play it the same post-flop. I think I could make an argument for folding the river when it blanks - looking at this hand alone - but I think it's worth the BB to see a showdown (and almost surely lose) then play the hand as you did and fold the river. This sounds a bit goofy as I write it, so I'll think about it a little more.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
To me it feels like not capping preflop is a pretty significant error.

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy has 8% pfr. thats like super small. and this is a 3bet. that means a lot. it means he has monster.

now my hand is pretty good but its proly not the best and lots of flops are super bad. so are lots of turns and rivers. i really want to get the button out if i can. best way is to smooth call pf and raise favorable flops.

now i protect my hand and i can get away from bad flops.

[PokerBob]

perfect imho, but i am awful.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Who is the 3rd - krish? I always wonder if *this time* the BB is a 2+2er who looked into my soul and saw that Surf knows how to fold to a cap after raising and has thus made a mega-iso raise with 22 or something. Then i fold and go back to my other tables and kind of forget about it because i'm on a new SN.

Surf

Edit: FWIW i probably fold the turn if I don't pick up a FD vs this particular player. those who are saying things like raise should really look at what a 30/8/1.2 plays this way and how many worse hands he could hold.

[Victor]

seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[Lmn55d]

Vic, imo this is not even close to being a river fold. Yea his pfr is 8. But this is a blind steal situation. Additionally, have you ever heard of tilt or alcohol induced aggression? lol, these things are all possible. I think you will see a hand like 77, A9, K9, j9, q9 here enough to make this call. Seriously I can think of so many times I've been in almost this exact same spot and have called the river "knowing" I'm beat, only to be showed some random hand.

I like pre-flop. Can't find a river fold. Had the turn been some non-heart I could have looked for a fold there.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my post? If so, can you respond to it? If not, can you read it /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Spicymoose

[Victor]

throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
throw ak out guess he aint 3betting and leading every street. throw a9o out bc he aint 3betting pf.

this is yet another case of refusing to believe what my opponent is telling me.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 combos of A9s. If he plays like this 100% of the time with that hand, then you can just barely call. If you refuse to believe he will play AK or A9o this way as little as 5%, then yes, a river fold is good.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, a river fold is good

[/ QUOTE ]

sweet, im glad we agree.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Who is the 3rd - krish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ayup.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

preflop is fine. Postflop is fine. he'll show you a small pp often enough to call the river.

Krishan

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Now it's true that we can't say that with absolute certainty. But given enough hands with player types like this we can begin to estimate how many combos of a9 an opponent could have. I'd say less than 1.

Krishan

[TStoneMBD]

hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

i cant fold this on the river. there are too many hands he could have. i understand why youd want to fold but im just not liking it. hes not going to put you on TT+ since you didnt cap preflop so he will often have a 9. even if you didnt pick up the flush draw on the turn im taking this hand to the showdown.

another reason why you cap preflop is that when players play back at you after youve coldcapped its because youre beat and can fold. here you cant.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
hi vic. i think not capping preflop is passing up alot of equity. i sometimes just call this myself cause it feels right sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i stoved it.

button has 35% of hands.....21.5
sb has 99, ajs, kqs, ajo....43
i have 1010.................35.5

i will willingly give up a few % of equity to protect my hand and get away for cheap when im clearly behind.

the equity is misleading bc it counts when flops come ak4 and i river a 10. clearly i wont stick around for that so that equity is not realized.

edit to add that my opponent is always sticking around to the river for overs. by capping now the button will only be facing one bet on the flop as well and will call with overs. so, even when ahead preflop, i will be dodging 6-12 outs on the turn and 6 more on the river.

[Catt]

The only info we have is 8 pfr over only 400 hands. We have no idea (other than what the stats say) how he reacts to blind steal situations; what he might think of button; what he might think of us; what has been happening at the table; if he's down / up feeling lucky / feeling run over; what he's doing while playing; what mood he's in, etc., etc.

I make folds on the river here like these. I think most of the time they are good folds; I'm sure some of the time I'm wrong, but I think I'm making good decisions long-term on fold or call. I'm not saying that the stats are meaningless or we must always call here (because I do not think that is close to true). However, based on the info given in the OP and then in subsequent posts, I don't think this should be folded. When I do make a fold like this, I don't post it because, while I may believe it was the best play and mayh continue to so believe upon a post-session review, I'm either unable to convey that info adequately in a post for someone who was not there, or I am able to convey it and it either is "good fold" or "I wouldn't fold" -- i.e., nothgin good really comes from posting it. Victor may have had enough extraneous info to make this a good fold; but absent that info (which may require presence at the table to truly appreciate it) I don't think I could argue as an outside observer that this should be a fold by any noteworthy margin (and I think there are decent reasons to make a close call if, as I suspect, he's playing in a game where he will likely play against this specific opp with some frequency).

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd cap preflop. postflop is fine, i don't think there's any issue with not folding an overpair on the river for one more bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

this guy has 8% pfr. thats like super small. and this is a 3bet. that means a lot. it means he has monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you would have folded to the flop 3 bet then without the BD draw?

[Victor]

no. im never folding to the flop 3bet on similar boards.

my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

[ QUOTE ]
my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]


my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

so he will only 3 bet a total monster PF, but he will 3 bet the flop OOP with less than the goods? I dont think those 2 statements work well together.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with bryce on this one...unless he's an actively-thinking TAG (not multitabling drone) players will often just keep betting on the river with whatever they bet on the turn in situations like this... *sometimes* they reveal their hand with a true action on the river, but not often enough to change the decision IMO.

Surf

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my opponent is talking to me. i dont believe him on the flop. im not gonna believe him on the turn either. but i think he will speak the truth on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe that he can 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with an unpaired hand there's no reason to believe that he's going to magically stop on the river. This is one of those scenarios where your brain registers winning 1 out of 10 as "never". Once you make it this far you really can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with bryce on this one...unless he's an actively-thinking TAG (not multitabling drone) players will often just keep betting on the river with whatever they bet on the turn in situations like this... *sometimes* they reveal their hand with a true action on the river, but not often enough to change the decision IMO.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree as well

[poker1O1]

the flop 3bet OOP is such a huge indicator to me. I'm still pushing for a river fold.

[Victor]

ok. if i was a good player i would fold the turn absent a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll confess....now who's the 3rd one?

EDIT: I posted before reading past the quote. Vic, looks like we have more than 3 so far.

[ QUOTE ]
ok. if i was a good player i would fold the turn absent a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's far more sensible.

[baronzeus]

love it. whole hand. all streets. just beautiful.

to everyone saying fold the river---maybe, but sometimes people go crazy and sometimes you are splitting with TT. if you dont think its possible he'll ever play AK like this then i guess you could fold, but i dont usually, because i dont trust my opponents.

[Victor]

shocked you arent advocating a cap.

[Victor]

Our House: what did he have, Kh, Kx?
Victor: qq
Victor: not sure if he had heart or not
Our House: k
Our House: still, you can't be sure
Our House: in NL maybe
Our House: in a live game maybe
Our House: with a super read maybe
Our House: not just 400 hands of stats
Victor: ok
Our House: i've talked to a lot of top notch players/posters
Our House: they all say the same thing
Our House: we don't make much of our money online from making great laydowns
Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense
Our House: but if you really feel that way preflop, you should fold
Our House: cause TT is no different than 99 or 88 or 77
Our House: against that guy
Our House: plus....
Victor: i play those the same way
Our House: you do realize that by capping you back him off right?
Our House: you may get a free river or turn
Our House: if you cap
Our House: then he leads and you raise on the flop
Our House: there's a good chance he'll think QQ is no good
Our House: and check the turn
Our House: you'll bet
Our House: he's done now
Our House: you can decide to check the turn or river
Our House: a turn check would be bad
Our House: but a river check is good
Our House: you don't get outplayed by a worse hand and you get to see the SD for half a bet less
Victor: close to convincing me
Our House: lol
Victor: i never thought of that line

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
shocked you arent advocating a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]


a cap totally bloats the pot and takes away your positional advantage on SB with a hand that has very little equity 3 ways and bad reverse implied odds. that is, of course, unless you can get btn to fold (which i doubt).

i think in this case calling is >>>> capping

also, another line that pops into mind against this guy is to cap the flop, and if he leads the turn call (or fold if no str8/flush d) and fold the river.

if he checks to you on the turn i think you need to bet at least the turn and maybe even the riv (IF you think he will play AK lik ethis)

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
a cap totally bloats the pot and takes away your positional advantage on SB with a hand that has very little equity 3 ways and bad reverse implied odds. that is, of course, unless you can get btn to fold (which i doubt).


[/ QUOTE ]

quoted bc thats what i think too.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
also, another line that pops into mind against this guy is to cap the flop, and if he leads the turn call (or fold if no str8/flush d) and fold the river.

if he checks to you on the turn i think you need to bet at least the turn and maybe even the riv (IF you think he will play AK lik ethis)

[/ QUOTE ]

would like thoughts on this line

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also, another line that pops into mind against this guy is to cap the flop, and if he leads the turn call (or fold if no str8/flush d) and fold the river.

if he checks to you on the turn i think you need to bet at least the turn and maybe even the riv (IF you think he will play AK lik ethis)

[/ QUOTE ]

would like thoughts on this line

[/ QUOTE ]

i like. another line i would never think to do. atually, i like this the best.

bet/fold type lines are good vs. the loose passives it seems.

[Poldi]

I dont see another way to play this. I´m surely not folding an overpair to unknowns without big action on the big streets.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll confess....now who's the 3rd one?

EDIT: I posted before reading past the quote. Vic, looks like we have more than 3 so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button. Just like there are tons of hands we should complete/fold from the SB.

[ QUOTE ]
There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL..

If I raise from the button, an 8% PFR 3-bets, and Victor caps, I'm folding HALF of my range.

Got that Vic? Now that you have that info, you and the 8% guy can get together and use it against me.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, I'll confess....now who's the 3rd one?

EDIT: I posted before reading past the quote. Vic, looks like we have more than 3 so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button. Just like there are tons of hands we should complete/fold from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

this guy is unknown. hes not a 23/18 tag.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for showing the math, Guy. I read it over thinking "that's not right... Ah, f'it, i'm tired." Now I don't have to come back later not-tired and lay it all out.

IMHO too many 2+2ers write off loose calls as "not that big of a mistake" which is quite incorrect - i'm not talking about this hand specifically (though think about the turn with no FD) but in general.

Surf

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on this I whipped up a real quick spreadsheet and found the results to be quite interesting so I thought I would share them.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Pot Size
Win % 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1/1 100.0% 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00
1/2 50.0% 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50
1/3 33.3% 2.33 2.67 3.00 3.33 3.67 4.00 4.33 4.67 5.00 5.33 5.67 6.00
1/4 25.0% 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25
1/5 20.0% 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20
1/6 16.7% 0.67 0.83 1.00 1.17 1.33 1.50 1.67 1.83 2.00 2.17 2.33 2.50
1/7 14.3% 0.43 0.57 0.71 0.86 1.00 1.14 1.29 1.43 1.57 1.71 1.86 2.00
1/8 12.5% 0.25 0.38 0.50 0.63 0.75 0.88 1.00 1.13 1.25 1.38 1.50 1.63
1/9 11.1% 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.56 0.67 0.78 0.89 1.00 1.11 1.22 1.33
1/10 10.0% 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
1/11 9.1% -0.09 0.00 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.73 0.82 0.91
1/12 8.3% -0.17 -0.08 0.00 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.75
1/13 7.7% -0.23 -0.15 -0.08 0.00 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62
1/14 7.1% -0.29 -0.21 -0.14 -0.07 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.29 0.36 0.43 0.50
1/15 6.7% -0.33 -0.27 -0.20 -0.13 -0.07 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.27 0.33 0.40
1/16 6.3% -0.38 -0.31 -0.25 -0.19 -0.13 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.19 0.25 0.31
1/17 5.9% -0.41 -0.35 -0.29 -0.24 -0.18 -0.12 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24
1/18 5.6% -0.44 -0.39 -0.33 -0.28 -0.22 -0.17 -0.11 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.17
1/19 5.3% -0.47 -0.42 -0.37 -0.32 -0.26 -0.21 -0.16 -0.11 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.11
1/20 5.0% -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05
1/21 4.8% -0.52 -0.48 -0.43 -0.38 -0.33 -0.29 -0.24 -0.19 -0.14 -0.10 -0.05 0.00
1/22 4.5% -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.41 -0.36 -0.32 -0.27 -0.23 -0.18 -0.14 -0.09 -0.05
1/23 4.3% -0.57 -0.52 -0.48 -0.43 -0.39 -0.35 -0.30 -0.26 -0.22 -0.17 -0.13 -0.09
1/24 4.2% -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.42 -0.38 -0.33 -0.29 -0.25 -0.21 -0.17 -0.13
1/25 4.0% -0.60 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.44 -0.40 -0.36 -0.32 -0.28 -0.24 -0.20 -0.16
1/26 3.8% -0.62 -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.42 -0.38 -0.35 -0.31 -0.27 -0.23 -0.19
1/27 3.7% -0.63 -0.59 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.44 -0.41 -0.37 -0.33 -0.30 -0.26 -0.22
1/28 3.6% -0.64 -0.61 -0.57 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.43 -0.39 -0.36 -0.32 -0.29 -0.25
1/29 3.4% -0.66 -0.62 -0.59 -0.55 -0.52 -0.48 -0.45 -0.41 -0.38 -0.34 -0.31 -0.28
1/30 3.3% -0.67 -0.63 -0.60 -0.57 -0.53 -0.50 -0.47 -0.43 -0.40 -0.37 -0.33 -0.30
</pre><hr />

Conclusion:
It sure looks like folding on the river in a big pot isn't nearly as bad as we make it out to be. Was Ed Miller wrong?

Example from chart:
Pot is 20BB and our opponent bets into us. We need to be good 5% of the time for the call to be correct. This is obvious.

Now if our winning chances are actually 6.7% (1/15) then we net a profit of 0.25BB's. But if our winning chances are only 3.3% (1/30 then we lose 0.33 BB's on the hand. Both of these scenarios represent a 1.7% change from our break even point. But, we can also look at the case where we are 1/25 (4%), which would be the a change of 5 hands in the denominator (6.7% is 1/15 and 4% is 1/25 and the breakeven point is 1/20...) and find that we lose 0.2 BB's per hand which is a similar amount to what we win when we look at it in the opposite direction.

Help me understand the results of this table which is basically looking at our EV of calling 1 big bet on the river in a pot of various size vs. our chance of winning that pot. It appears that incorrectly calling for one bet on the river is worth almost the same as incorrectly folding. (If calling is worth +0.25 then folding is -0.25.)

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]

God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap, Im glad someone mentioned this. Im like never folding A9 offsuit or suited to a buttons open raise. Unless hes passive and only raises strong hands. Usually this is a 3bet for me, easy.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. but i still cant fold it.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whew. I'll often 3-bet A9 here.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are correct. What I mistakenly did was consider the 4% difference as 4% of 100% (with the $20 being 100%). Unfortunately, $20 represents only 10% here. So being ahead 6% of the time is a 40% loss from the 10% breakeven.

40% of $20 = $8 (NOT 80 cents)