Preflop with 88

[Aaron W.]

I'm multitabling with no HUD. With two limpers plus the two raisers, I figured this would be a 5-6 handed pot. With the two raisers, I figured that postflop may find a bunch of bets thrown into the pot. Therefore, I called. Your thoughts?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls ...

[ajm36]

I don't like it. You really don't know what The EP's will do with 2 bets coming at them, this may get capped, and you are most certainly behind either the raise or the 3-bet OR both. Say it is 5 handed and everyone stays to the river. Are you good with THIS hand under THESE conditions 1 out of 5 times? The decision to fold here should be automatic.

[istewart]

I wouldn't call here without some good reads. Consider first that you have to make up a helluva lot of bets by calling three cold, secondly that players in this game are quite passive, and thirdly that if you hit a set your relative position is very bad.

[Schwartzy61]

I don't see this getting past 4-handed. With a 3-bet out there I would only expect 1 EP limper to call and don't expect the blinds to enter the pot either.

With that said, I fold...

[Jake (The Snake)]

There's a big difference between 5:1 and 15:3 in the amount of postflop bets you have to make up when you hit your set.

Calling on set value alone here, even if you KNOW you are getting 5 opponents and you know nobody is capping would be wrong. I highly doubt there will be a significant # of times you can win this hand without spiking an 8. I fold.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls ...

[/ QUOTE ]

This was for set value only. I don't intend to go very far unless I snag my 8.

Miss the set 8 times = 24 SB lost
Hit the set once = 12-13 SB preflop + 5-6 SB on the flop + 4 SB on the turn + 3 SB on the river = 24-26 won = close enough.

Having not played full ring in a few months, I've forgotten a number of estimates that I used to use to determine my postflop implied odds on these sorts of hands. So these numbers which I pulled out of nowhere could be off a little bit.

[Fantam]

You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm multitabling with no HUD. With two limpers plus the two raisers, I figured this would be a 5-6 handed pot. With the two raisers, I figured that postflop may find a bunch of bets thrown into the pot. Therefore, I called. Your thoughts?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I don't like it. You're a much better player than me, but I don't see how you can't play this for set value. I can see calling one raise, but I hate calling three cold here.

[MN_Mime]

Even snagging the 8, there are a good number of situations where you simply can't make up those bets.

A83 - when you're against non-ace overpairs and/or just overcards
KK8 - paralyzes PFR (maybe most paired boards)
any 4-straight
monotone flops

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It's a tough hand and I hate releasing it, too.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Even snagging the 8, there are a good number of situations where you simply can't make up those bets.

A83 - when you're against non-ace overpairs and/or just overcards
KK8 - paralyzes PFR (maybe most paired boards)
any 4-straight
monotone flops

---

It's a tough hand and I hate releasing it, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

A83 stands a good chance of hitting one of the two preflop raisers. If one of them has AK/AQ, I can expect lots of bets to make up for those times the first guy has KQ and the second guy has JJ.

KK8 also has the bonus money aspect when I hit AK/KQ over the head with a sledge hammer. The same is true for AA8. QQ8 and lower may be a little different, but if you get down to 558, I expect the action to up again on average (because there are now more overpairs).

4-straights happen.

Monotone happens. But monotone flops will cut down on profit, but I'll still get action if villain holds the high flush card (A or K, sometimes Q). So I don't think villains will freeze up completely.

I wouldn't hate releasing it. If I saw a strong enough argument to convince me that it's not even close to profitable with four players already entering the pot, I'd happily release it.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, firstly I think that it may be a little unreasonable to expect both of the early limpers to call a double bet cold preflop.

So I would reduce the estimated number of preflop bets to say about 10sb.

Then I would assume that it would be reasonable for both of the preflop raisers to call your flop raise if you made your set. So I would also estimate about 6sb for the flop.

However, I would reduce my estimated bets for the turn and river to say one caller. That would make my turn and river estimates about 2sb each.

Overall, that would total about 20sb, and make the preflop call unprofitable.

I admit though, that it looks closer than I at first thought, and that you would only need an extra call or raise here or there to give you profitable odds.

Having said that, we also need to remember that you will not win the pot everytime that you make your set, because sometimes you will be beaten by a straight, flush or better hand.

So I dont think that we should be over optimistic when considering the implied odds either.

[MN_Mime]

I was thinking JJ/TT vs KK type of situations for A83. You probably get a bet from one of them and then you act after calling 3 cold and they both know they're beat.

I was originally thinking KK because AQs, QQ-TT are all in a world of hurt here. You're right, QQ8 is probably a better example of what I was getting at for the second case because they are more apt to miss.

Your monotone point is well taken, but there's a fair chance that there is no redraw for either player. PP is looking at 50% and suited overcards is 25% a made hand (where you're now a 2-1 dog). Assuming 3 players see the flop...

against 2 PP (~33%) - no redraw 25%, 1 redraw 50%, 2 redraws 25%
against 1 PP and 1 suited overs (~66%) -
no redraw 37.5%, 1 redraw 37.5% and no flush, 25% made flush
[Edit: I discounted the possibility of 2 suited overs on this hand with the PF action so far]
Looks like a combined 40% that you *could* get action but you're behind about 40% of the time you get that action.

You're seeing offsuit overs almost never...

I'm, of course, ignoring set over set.
---

I don't think there's an 'overwhelming' argument against it but I think it's -EV because you can't make those bets up as often as you might against weaker holdings. Calling 3 bets cold is a steep price on a long-term loser unless you have good control of the table.

Don't you guys consider that he has position after the flop and can easily be closing the action post flop on the other streets?

Post deleted by Philo

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not cold-call three bets before the flop. With four opponents seeing the flop and a very big pre-flop pot, you are not going to win every time you hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

One could argue that implicit collusion is starting to take effect here. If we're seeing two people going at it with AA, then we're in damn fine shape should we spike an 8.

No idea how to take advantage of it, just making a point.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,
The pot size is basically going to be the average pot size when a big field is 3-bet. I'd ballpark maybe 10-11BB, but probably not 13-14. If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really important. You obviously also lose quite a bit when you hit your set and lose.

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really important. You obviously also lose quite a bit when you hit your set and lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do sets really lose 25% of the time?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really important. You obviously also lose quite a bit when you hit your set and lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do sets really lose 25% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that's the rule of thumb for a flopped set on all boards.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,
The pot size is basically going to be the average pot size when a big field is 3-bet. I'd ballpark maybe 10-11BB, but probably not 13-14. If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that 25% is waaaaaaay over the top. When you flop a set, I would think you get cracked closer to 10-15% of the time (about half of your estimate). Obviously, this number shifts with the number of villains in the pot, but I don't think losing 25% with your sets is very reasonable. (Note: A set is not the same as trips.)

If someone with some substantial PT stats could write a script to isolate sets, I would be interested in seeing some numerical data...

[Jake (The Snake)]

Hey Aaron,

Firstly, I think that if you fool around PokerStove some, you will see that the 25% estimate is not far off. Obviously PS isn't perfect for that kind of calculation, but it will get you in the ballpark if you try a bunch of different flops against 5 others. I'd like to know the PokerTracker % as well, but I also recall the 25% number being used quite often on the forums.

In any case, let's use an estimate that says 10/11 times your set holds up, no chance it gets reraised behind you, and 5 opponents. Obviously a favorable situation.

We'll say 89% of the time we lose 3 small bets, so 89 times we lose 3 = (267 SB).

1% of the time we lose 2 SB plus probably 8SB postflop so 1 time we lose 10 = (10 SB).

10% of the time we need to make up 277 SB. That is 27.7 SB per time we hit our set and it holds up. With 5 opponents putting in 3 SB in preflop, that means we need to make up 12.7SB on average postflop.

That's going to be really tough to do on its own. Now when you factor in the possibility that less people call preflop, that it is capped preflop, or most important, that your set hold up less often than 10 out of 11 (which is absolutely the case) then it becomes an easy fold if we are doing this on set value alone.

[Shillx]

Call. Call with hands like 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif as well. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif