Isolating with a small pair.

These situations haven't come up much for me particularly since I play mostly micro/small-stakes full ring games which tend to be quite a bit more loose-passive.

Prima 1/2 8-handed, villain is 17/11/2.37 over 400-500 hands. He's sitting on my direct left at two out of three tables, but I'm in position at this particular table.

The game is tight and aggressive, table average PFR was around 9-11 I think. Previously, the villain has opened JTo+ in HJ, and T9o+ in CO or better, and has been running over the blinds a decent amount. I've started three-betting with more marginal hands, and villain has folded to flop or turn aggression when caught without much of anything, bet-folding a few times. Blinds are tight, don't think they'll play without JJ+.

PF:

Villain opens in CO, I three-bet on button with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Blinds fold, villain calls.

Flop: (7.5SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain checks, I bet, villain calls.

Turn: (4.75BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain checks, I bet, villain CRs, I call.

River: (8.75BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain bets, I call.

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The hand felt right at the time given the circumstances, but I'm wondering if I should have waited for a hand with slightly better showdown value against his hand range, although I expected to win this hand the majority of the time without a showdown.

Also, comments about post-flop stuff would be appreciated, particularly the turn-river play. As it played out, I ended up putting in two bets on the turn and one on the river, whereas if I had checked behind on the turn, I would have put in one (possibly two) on the river, given the read that the villain could be tricky/aggro. Another option would be three-betting the turn, but it seems excessive.

[Eeegah]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8734 % 51.03% 00.84% { 99-22, A9s-A2s, KTs, QTs+, JTs, ATo, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 48.1266 % 47.28% 00.84% { 44 }


This is a lousy hand to isolate with IMO. I'm also done with the turn C/R.

Folding the turn is terrible. Majority of the time I have six outs getting 7.75:1, with two more bets going in on the river if I hit. Additionally, I'm ahead of most of his hand range on the turn given the flop check-call. The only hand I can think of that might play like this that I'm behind would be 88 exactly.

fold preflop

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the turn is terrible. Majority of the time I have six outs getting 7.75:1, with two more bets going in on the river if I hit. Additionally, I'm ahead of most of his hand range on the turn given the flop check-call. The only hand I can think of that might play like this that I'm behind would be 88 exactly.

[/ QUOTE ]

66, 45s, maybe A8s if he's getting tricky. Hell anything with an 8 if he's starting to notice that you're isolating him. Spiking a 5 is almost certainly a lock, a 4 probably is but still needs to be discounted slightly--calling is just over dead even at a full 6, just under at 5.5. Do you think your implied odds make up for the fact that you paid off on the river?

[ QUOTE ]
66, 45s, maybe A8s if he's getting tricky. Hell anything with an 8 if he's starting to notice that you're isolating him. Spiking a 5 is almost certainly a lock, a 4 probably is but still needs to be discounted slightly--calling is just over dead even at a full 6, just under at 5.5. Do you think your implied odds make up for the fact that you paid off on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given his opening range (in the OP), 45s is impossible, 66 is fairly unlikely (haven't seen him open with low pocket pairs), JJ+ is capping PF, and I'm almost certainly getting CR-ed by anything else that's vulnerable to overs. I'm 6.67:1 against with 6 outs going to the river, and the pot is already at 7.75BB closing the turn action (again, assuming we're behind).

[Eeegah]

All right, let's do a two-street analysis here. There's three outcomes:
<ul type="square"> You call, make your hand on the river and win 10.75. I'll give you the six full outs for now, so the EV here is (10.75)*(6/46).
You call, miss your hand and pay off the river with the worst hand. The EV here is (-2)*(1-6/46)
You call, miss your hand, pay off the river and win anyway. Let x be how often you're ahead on the river. The EV here is (2)*(x).
[/list]

For this to be a break even call the sum of those terms must be zero, with some algebra we can solve for x:
(10.75)*(6/46) + (-2)*(1-6/46) + (2)*(x) = 0

x=~17%. If we discount your outs to 5.5 then x=24%.

You obviously have a perfect read on the guy; if you think you're ahead on the river (ie he doesn't have a King either) 17% of the time then cool. Either way it's a damn close call, and calling a fold here 'terrible' is a misnomer imo.

i will point out that postflop i think is fairly good here. you are ahead enough times on the turn to make this play

[ajm36]

I don't like doing this with 44 because that hand doesn't make me money. I have done this with 55, but it's always sticky. The turn c/r is dead give-away to fold this hand. Is his hand really improved by the 2? He had something on the flop or PF and 4's are no good here.

[ QUOTE ]
All right, let's do a two-street analysis here. There's three outcomes:
<ul type="square"> You call, make your hand on the river and win 10.75. I'll give you the six full outs for now, so the EV here is (10.75)*(6/46).
You call, miss your hand and pay off the river with the worst hand. The EV here is (-2)*(1-6/46)
You call, miss your hand, pay off the river and win anyway. Let x be how often you're ahead on the river. The EV here is (2)*(x).
[/list]

For this to be a break even call the sum of those terms must be zero, with some algebra we can solve for x:
(10.75)*(6/46) + (-2)*(1-6/46) + (2)*(x) = 0

x=~17%. If we discount your outs to 5.5 then x=24%.

You obviously have a perfect read on the guy; if you think you're ahead on the river (ie he doesn't have a King either) 17% of the time then cool. Either way it's a damn close call, and calling a fold here 'terrible' is a misnomer imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

These calculations don't mean much without evaluating the villain's hand range, and our equity on the turn.

I went over some various hand ranges in PokerStove, and folding the turn is without a doubt terrible, particularly against an aggro/tricky player. It's not close. Against top 15% of hands, we have approx. 67% equity on the turn, against top 20%, 69% equity, and against top %25, 67%. If anything, this should be a three-bet. Effective odds are 8.75:2, and I now think that this is an easy calldown as the most passive line.

I'm not particularly proficient with the math, but I assume I'd have to weight the hand range as well after the flop check-call. I'm making a slightly -EV turn call *if* I can place the villain on exactly combinations of 88/66 (which is basically impossible, and even then is +EV if the villain three-bets on the river with a set).

As noted in the OP, I'm more interested in what hands you guys would three-bet on the button vs. someone with a very large range of opening hands and is running over the blinds with little resistance. I'm assuming that at some point you have to play back at him, or you lose too much in profitable situations (particularly with the tight blinds). I'm also wondering how much PF equity can be made up through position/fold equity (in addition to having a showdown-quality hand). Note that I had observed the guy bet-folding/check-folding against aggression on the flop/turn.

[ajm36]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm more interested in what hands you guys would three-bet on the button vs. someone with a very large range of opening hands and is running over the blinds with little resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA-99--maybe 88
AK-AJ(although not AJo always)
ATs
ATo sometimes
KQs and KQo
KJs sometimes
QJs maybe

I'm not a 6-max guy so they would probably have a better idea--but this is what I 3-bet in these situations. I might add something to the list.