Tough decision, could you fold?

[jasonHoldEm]

Hi guys,

$5 NLHE SNG at Stars.

I'm the chip leader with 3 left (I'm already in the money).

Blinds are 50/100

I'm the button with K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif

I make it 500 to go, SB folds, BB calls

FLOP: 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Ugh...

BB checks, I bet 1000, BB check-raises all-in. BB is 2nd in chips, I have him covered by about 400.

BB is essentially a "nuts" player (although this would be a great opportunity to bluff, I doubt that he is).

I know he probably has the flush (probably the nut flush at that). I'm realatively confident he'd also move in here with a set, but I don't think he'd call my pre-flop raise with 44. So I'm looking at either set over set or a made flush. He has one out to beat me if he's moving with JJ, I have a number of outs to catch a full house if he has the flush.

What do you do?

Results in next post...

Thanks,
J

[jasonHoldEm]

If I wasn't already in the money this would have been a more difficult decision. Even though I'm pretty sure I'm behind I make the call.

He turns over A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif for the nut flush.

My trip kings do not improve and I get knocked out two hands later.

Not sure if I would have done anything differently if I had the chance to do it again. I might have bet more pre-flop, but generally when I'm in the money already I tend to make "small" raises with big hands because I want people to call...in this situation it worked, unfortunately it worked for the other guy.

Any suggestions are appreciated.

jHE

[fnurt]

3-handed I really can't argue with the way you played it. Betting more than 5x the big blind before the flop would be silly IMO.

[Magician]

Very hard to lay those down.

Keep in mind even if you call and are behind, you are still only a 2 to 1 underdog - there's about a 1 in 3 chance that the board pairs giving you a fullhouse.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Man, that picture is so annoying, I couldn't stand to sit here and read your post. Hope I didn't miss anything too interesting.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Glenn]

How big was his raise all in? If it was 3000 or less, calling is a +Tournament chip EV play even if you KNOW he has a flush. Against a flush you have 34% pot equity or so. If he reraises 2000 all in for instance, you have to call 2000 and the pot will be 7050. Your tournament chip expectation on this call is .34*7050 or 2397 so it is a +397 EV play (vs folding which is a 0 EV play) even if you KNOW he has a flush, which you probably don't.

Now sometimes in a tournament it is correct to pass up a slightly +EV play for survivals sake. However, this situation is not one of those times. It is a really easy call.

[nicky g]

What are the stack sizes? How on earth did you come up against a 3-handed nuts player in a 5 dollar Sit and Go? Against the average $5 SNGer I wouldn't fold in a million years.

[FeliciaLee]

I was the SB. I haven't played a $5.50 SNG in quite a while, but I let Jason do the choosing /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Getting into the money was too easy with this crowd. I busted someone the very first hand. He just wouldn't give up a completely dominated holding, lol.

Jason is right, the BB was a total cinch player. I should know, since I am pretty much one myself (although I have opened up a bit, of late). We all have to start somewhere, and this is where the BB has started out. I don't blame him. Once the BB and I got head's up, it was easy to to tell he was new at SNG's, if we hadn't already known, lol.

I would have bet more pre-flop. Jason was working on trapping the guy, I would have been happy with the blinds. That is me, I don't screw around with desperate people, shorthanded, in SNG's. Had he called and we had seen a flop, I would have laid them down because I knew I was beat. Sometimes you just know. Jason knew. Jason still had about 3800 chips after his 1k bet on the flop. Had he laid down his trips, he could have fought his way back to chip lead against this weak player. I would have lived to fight another day.

Instead, what happened was that two hands later, Jason flopped top pair, I had an open-ended straight draw, Jason went all-in with only about 340 chips left, and it was an easy call for me. I got the straight, and Jason got 3rd place.

Jason and I were clearly better players. I would have taken the hit and tried to make a comeback.

Earlier in that same tournament, for example, I was dealt pocket jacks. One smallish stack went all-in. A couple of folds, then a big stack went over the top, all in, for over 2k chips. I thought about it for a minute. I was clearly beat. I hated laying those jacks down, but I did it anyway. Sure enough, I was beat before the flop, and would have lost two ways, had there been a 3-way river.

Laying down a good hand is hard to do. Making a great laydown is a nice feeling. You know your read was completely correct (yes, even on the internet). I would rather outplay someone, than outdraw someone.

I also had another occasion yesterday, in a higher buy-in tourney, where I had to lay down pocket kings on the flop. I did it, as bad as it felt, and it was the right decision. I ended up cashing at 2nd, whereas I would have been out the second hand had I held onto those kings for dear life. The stupid caller who called my 500 chip reraise after two raises and a call BTF, however, did not even get close to the money. He gave up all of his chips long before we got to the final three. Putting down those pocket kings was tough, but in the end, I won 30% of the prize pool, and this guy walked away emptyhanded, like I'm sure he does almost every tourney.

Call me weak, call me passive. I go for the money, first place if I can maneuver it, and sometimes that means making some early laydowns that are just plain painful.

Jason is becoming pretty good at NLHE sng's. He has grown dramatically in the past few weeks. Go Jason! This was a toughie, but I would have laid them down any day of the week, given the type of player the BB was.

Another lesson learned. Hey, we still made money, didn't we, J?

[jon_1van]

I have to look at it this way,
I call unless the third guy (chip loser) is just about out of chips.

I couldn't bring myself to fold it. You could fill-up. He could be bluffing (he must know he is a "nuts only" player). Only fold if waiting a couple hand gives you a very good chance that the other guy will bust out.

Jon 1van

p.s. that picture is annoying

[jasonHoldEm]

Greg (all),

Ok...I give up. /forums/images/icons/frown.gif I'll go back to the atari joystick.

jHE

[slogger]

This may be a leak in my game, but I'd call every time. How sure are you that he wouldn't call a T500 pre-flop raise with 44? How about KJs? Couldn't he have hit his two pair on the flop and put you on AA, AK, or QQ (or another pair for that matter) and come over the top representing the flush figuring that he's either got you beat or he's got a chance of pushing you off a flopped set?

If he wouldn't call you with 44 or KJs, what hands are you worried about? A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif ? Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif ? A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif x /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif ?

Add the facts that you're already in the money, you have outs to the boat, and you'd still technically survive a beat here, and it becomes a near automatic call IMHO.

I'm very open to criticism if anyone thinks I'm way off here.

[jasonHoldEm]

Stacks at the start of the hand:

Me: 5595
SB: 2750
BB: 5155

Preflop I bet 500 SB folds BB calls

On the flop there is 1050 in pot

BB checks, I bet 1000, BB moves in for 4655 (1000 call + 3655 raise)

There is 6705 in the pot when I must make the decision to call his all-in (I must call 3655, leaving me with 440 if I miss).

Sorry for not including this before.

Jason

[Ignatius]

This post is completely meaningless w/o the stack sizes of all players at the table (not just in the hand) and the payout schedule.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

No need to give up what you like. I just can't read the post, because the movement is so distracting.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You're getting 2:1 on the call, and you're just about a 2:1 dog IF he has the made flush. Against any other hand you're a solid favorite, or even a huge favorite. Sounds like an easy call to me.

So the answer is NO, I could not fold. And I'd be disappointed in myself if I did. It would've been wrong. Only if he showed me his made flush would it be correct, and even then it would barely be correct to fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)