Turned Trips but the Other Guy Keeps Betting

[Harv72b]

Reads are crucial in this hand, so don't just skim the following paragraphs. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

The table in general ain't so great, and is playing pretty tight and aggressive (although you can't tell from this hand). I'm doing what I do too often--sticking it out for a few more orbits after getting stuck early (chasing losses--I am teh suck). MP2 (the villain) is 16/9/5 over a 100 hand sample; I don't have any notes on him, which means he hasn't done anything unusual over that span. UTG+1 is a solid TAG from several hundred hands; if he's limping from EP on this table, he's either got a medium pocket pair or suited paint. The other players don't matter in this hand, although SB being the lone donk at the table (65/7 over ~50 hands) factored into my decision to limp behind preflop.

Two hands prior I had 3-bet an MP3 openraise from the button with KJs, and been capped by the SB. Both of us called, and SB led at an AJX flop, MP3 folded, I called, called his bet when I turned trip jacks, and only raised after spiking quads on the river (he made a pretty bad crying call with KK). I mention that hand because it was undoubtedly still fresh in the minds of everyone at the table, and is obviously the opposite strategy from what I used here.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (13 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero...?

Call or raise? And if we're 3-bet after raising?

[silkyslim]

whats with the call on the flop??? Pot is big enough to raise this, no? does villain limp JJ? does he bet A6 on the flop? i dont see what villain could reasonably have besides 3 pair. He needs to 3 bet your raise since tards do this alot when the board pairs. I dont get the continuation river bet, maybe he doesnt believe you. Id raise/call here expecting to see KJ.

KJ I think is the only possible hand he can have. I would raise/call a 3-bet.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
whats with the call on the flop???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting correct immediate odds to continue with my 5-outer plus backdoor flush draw, and am utterly convinced that I do not have the best hand at this point in time.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats with the call on the flop???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting correct immediate odds to continue with my 5-outer plus backdoor flush draw, and am utterly convinced that I do not have the best hand at this point in time.

[/ QUOTE ]
im not saying fold im going on SSH style raising to improve winning chances. you can fold some better hands and buy outs so that if you improve it wont be to a 2nd best hand or give people redraws. based on your reads though, i can see why you just called. can u explain this move more for my benefit?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
im not saying fold im going on SSH style raising to improve winning chances. you can fold some better hands and buy outs so that if you improve it wont be to a 2nd best hand or give people redraws. based on your reads though, i can see why you just called. can u explain this move more for my benefit?

[/ QUOTE ]

With the size of the pot, a raise is almost never going to fold top pair (maybe a weak top pair from the BB). It's not going to buy me the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif as an out, because a flush draw isn't folding no matter what I do. About the only time it could potentially buy me any outs is when someone is in the pot with a better six, which might happen about as often as I get laid (which is to say, not that often).

Besides which, with the nature of the flop and the size of the field, this almost certainly hit someone better than it did me. By raising, I open myself up to the possibility of being 3-bet (even by a worse hand; i.e., flush draw), which I would then be forced to call with the escalating pot odds/potential of it being a draw. And, finally, I can't think of a better hand to illustrate when you're willing to peel one card on the flop but will gladly toss your hand UI to a turn bet; while the flop bettor is easily aggressive enough to have bet a flush draw there, even if that's the case he almost certainly has 15 outs twice to beat me.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I know that there aren't really many hands that he can have that beats you based on preflop, but once he sees all that turn action he has to fear a 6. Once he leads the river I'm just calling.

I also think the flop is pretty close to a fold. I'd estimate 5 outs for Hero which is about enough but we have to consider that the pot will get raised behind us... especially on this kind of board. Implied odds might make it a call but I think it's close.

[SNOWBALL138]

Would he limp with a better six? A6s (diamonds maybe?) could maybe play like this, but I'm mostly doubting that possibility.

Pocket eights play this way? no, never.

Uhhh, would he limp JJ or KK? Not usually, but its possible he missed a limp-reraise attempt with KK, or AA. He never has JJ here, right?
con
KJ might play like this on the turn, especially given the possibility that he noticed your slowplay with the trip jacks. Maybe he's losing that session, and convincing himself that you were free showdown capping?

This is so iffy. Its really hard to find a smoking gun and have an "aha!" moment with this hand.

I think its close between raising and calling a 3 bet, and just calling. I like raising and calling a 3-bet a little better than calling, just because its really hard to put him on a hand that beats you, and I can totally see a guy with his stats having an almost complete aversion to the idea of check/calling the river.

[QTip]

Yeah. This is certainly weird. A 5 AF is certainly ridiculous, but can't put a ton of stock in that over 100 hands.

I'm going to wus out here and just call the river bet. I've just seen too much stupid stuff and a 3 bet is going to make me sick. We've just shown so much strength, the 6 is so obvious and he simply does not seem to care.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. This is certainly weird. A 5 AF is certainly ridiculous, but can't put a ton of stock in that over 100 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should mention that because I'm a retard, I didn't even notice the sample size until after the hand, so I was perhaps putting more emphasis on my read than I should have as it played out. Of course it's really hard to notice a glaring number superimposed on the table below the guy's name. :rolleyes:

[Harv72b]

Meh, the thread is dead I guess. I need to work on my definition of "interesting" hands.

I did raise the river, and he called the raise and showed KJ. MHIG.

Keeping in mind that I didn't bother to note sample size and therefore thought my read was stronger than it actually was, I had planned on capping if he 3-bet. I was that sure.

His 16/9 numbers, combined with the fact that the table as a whole was playing tight/aggressive (SB being the sole exception and the reason the table was still going), I felt that I could rule out him holding a 6; he wouldn't have limped A6s second in from MP2. He also wouldn't have limped behind with JJ or KK; them's raising hands, and barring a misclick the fact that he had no notes indicated to me that he wasn't likely to be trying sometihng tricky like limping behind &amp; hoping to reraise. So, as the first couple people in this thread said, he basically had to have KJ, or maybe some superdraw like Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (although that probably doesn't call a river raise).

I just posted this one because I thought it made for a good (if not easy) example of online hand-reading. And yeah, I was a little proud of myself for nailing it in real time. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[istewart]

I would fold the flop here. I hear your argument, but you're nowhere near closing the action and sixes and fives will be a costly second-best hand frequently on this type of board, I would imagine.

[QTip]

Harv:

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone limp with A6 there. The reason I doubted he had it was most wouldn't bet the flop with that unless they also had some sort of draw with it. You had the 6d, so, it's not A6s diamonds, and it's not A6s spades since that's on the board as well. There are 2 things going on here:

1. Our read on his PF play. Of course, cards are hidden, but misclicks can happen, tilt, FPS or whatever.

2. Our read on his postflop play. As I said, the six hitting is painfully obvious (these cards and action are not hidden), and he doesn't care.

So, between the two, the postflop play is a more sure thing imo.

Amazing how he overplayed that.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seconded. The five outs are if you're really lucky (do you want to see the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif come up?), and then there's redraws, etc. If you make flop peels like this routinely, it could be a leak.

[Harv72b]

I'm going to have to disagree on the flop call. While it's certainly possible that someone has the flush draw, it's hardly a given. And of course it's also possible (as was the case this time) that someone else flopped two pair, but that's also not always going to be the case. When all of my outs are live that gives me ~6.5, including the backdoor flush draw. Obviously you have to discount, but even with 5 outs this becomes a reasonable flop call.

As far as what I do if the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif turns (or any other 5), I raise once and exactly once. If MP2 3-bets or a flop caller 3-bets behind me, I act accordingly...in this case, probably calling for 1 more and folding the river UI multiway, calling 1 on the river HU, or folding if it's 3-bet &amp; capped after my raise.

As far as what I do on the turn, if any card comes other than a 5, 6, or diamond, I fold for one bet.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario has me putting in 4.5 BBs and losing to MP2's KJ, when I turn a 5 and call down in a HU pot. Most of the time, I'm losing 1 SB by calling on the flop and then folding when the turn doesn't improve me. A few more times I turn a diamond and call 1 more on the turn, fold the river UI.

As for the best case...well, I think we pretty much saw it here, although it would've been nice if UTG+1 had called on the turn (he thought about it for around 15 seconds before folding to my first raise). Will I end up turning two pair or trips and losing to a river redraw? Yeah, from time to time. Every so often I'll turn a 5 or 6 and then catch the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif on the river, winning several bets from a flush.

I dunno, someone else can do the math if they like, but I don't think peeling on the flop here is -EV, assuming I play it properly on later streets.

[chief444]

Harv,

Flop call seem really really iffy considering sometimes you'll catch two pair and get rivered...or even are against a bigger hand now.

I don't see how you can do anything but call the river and hope to see KJ.

Chief