A Hand From the Archives: AKs play along

[jason_t]

I was asked by PM to post this hand again.

The limpers are donks and the BB is fairly passive but can be donkish at times. Just think standard Party 2/4 texture.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
I was asked by PM to post this hand again.

The limpers are donks and the BB is fairly passive but can be donkish at times. Just think standard Party 2/4 texture.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm leading here and hoping that BB will also raise and that it folds back to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif If I lead out and BB raises and it is 3bet I'm folding.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm leading here and hoping that BB will also raise and that it folds back to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes
[ QUOTE ]

If I lead out and BB raises and it is 3bet I'm folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, folding here when you're getting 12:1 immediate odds on your call at a minimum is bad.

[newhizzle]

id go ahead and bet here, add another player or two and i think its a check, but i dont think its worth giving away your exact hand(if theyre smart enough to figure it out) at this point with a gutshot and two probably clean overs against only 3 donkeys

try to rep a pair for now until BB tells you hes got one

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I'm leading here and hoping that BB will also raise and that it folds back to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes
[ QUOTE ]

If I lead out and BB raises and it is 3bet I'm folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, folding here when you're getting 12:1 immediate odds on your call at a minimum is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet, BB raises, UTG 3bets, MP1 folds and it comes back to me. I'm getting 11.5 to 1 here unless MP1 calls which would give me 12 to 1. It could be capped which would give me effective odds of 8.6 to 1 or 10 to 1 if MP stays.

All I have here are two high cards at this point and a week wheel draw. I need more convincing that facing a 3bet/possible cap is a call. Now if I had a back door flush draw I would call 2more and peel for the turn.

[damaniac]

After you cap and lead, does BB raising really make you very happy?

[oxymoron]

If it gets me HU and improves my FE yes. If it gets a better hand to 3bet so I can move out of the way - yes.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I need more convincing that facing a 3bet/possible cap is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

well at this point its purely math, I don't know what more convincing there is to do?

[oxymoron]

Okay what ranges do you put the other people on when you bet and it is three bet to you? What is your equity on those ranges? Show me your math or you call here because you love AKs and you really haven't done ranges/math? I'm at work and without pokerstove at the moment but even with AKs I think your drawing very thin when it's 3bet back to you.

Don't put random for other people either becuase if it is bet and than 3bet someone has a PP or at least flush draw / straight draw at a minimum.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay what ranges do you put the other people on when you bet and it is three bet to you? What is your equity on those ranges? Show me your math or you call here because you love AKs and you really haven't done ranges/math? I'm at work and without pokerstove at the moment but even with AKs I think your drawing very thin when it's 3bet back to you.

Don't put random for other people either becuase if it is bet and than 3bet someone has a PP or at least flush draw / straight draw at a minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you get people to fold you can win with an A or a 5, maybe not a K. 12-1 is good enough.

Just check, wait and watch.

Just because we had equity preflop doesn't mean we have any stake now the flop comes down.

Betting into the BB is only good if he raises with worse hand. Which he doesn't have.

You now have a drawing hand, and a crap one at that.

Reverse implied odds are the suck.

Any 6 is calling this flop. I don't even know if 12:1 is good enough for a call.

[thirddan]

"Just because we had equity preflop doesn't mean we have any stake now the flop comes down."

I agree that just checking is best...
I feel that every SSer should repeat this at least ten times a day...just because we had a profitable raising situation preflop doesn't mean the the profit will continue once the flop has come...

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting into the BB is only good if he raises with worse hand. Which he doesn't have.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you think BB never 3-bets PF without a pair?

this board is very coordinated, but its also very low and its likely that noone connected with it, if we had the best hand preflop, we are very likely to still have the best hand now, and if we dont we have outs

plus capping OOP and checking this board pretty much screams "AK"

[damaniac]

[ QUOTE ]

so you think BB never 3-bets PF without a pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

No but we then capped and led. If he is STILL raising after this, it's b/c he has a big pair or is very aggro.

[newhizzle]

well i never said anything about wanting the BB to raise, but i like keeping the inititive here, like i said, one or two more opponents and i think its a check

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked. I think betting to clear the field is bad. No one who taints my outs is folding and these donks quite likely aren't going anywhere anywhere in this huge pot. I don't see any value in charging myself two to see the turn, especially with a weak, dirty draw. I want to get to the turn as cheaply possible and hit one of my outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I checked. I think betting to clear the field is bad. No one who taints my outs is folding and these donks quite likely aren't going anywhere anywhere in this huge pot. I don't see any value in charging myself two to see the turn, especially with a weak, dirty draw. I want to get to the turn as cheaply possible and hit one of my outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

so are we playing along or what?

i agree that betting for the sole purpose of clearing the field is bad, but i think there are other reasons to bet too.

this may well be a check, but for the sake of arguement, i think we need better reasons to check, lets look at the aggrivating and mitigating factors behind both plays:

reasons to check:
1. BB is a passive player and has shown strength before the flop, i really dont know what his range is here, but i think he could have more than just a pair
2. the board is coordinated and the looseys arent likely going anywhere, but it is also low and unless theyre just playing any suited crap, they probably didnt connect with it other than the clubs
3. our overcard outs may not be clean, now i think they are cleaner than we think, AA and KK are fairly unlikely just because we hold an ace and a king in our hand, our other concerns for our overs are reverse domination or someone holding a 5, unless these guys are super-loose, id say they are more likely to have bigger cards, then the flush draw also hurts us, so id give us about 4 outs for the overs
4. our straight draw is tainted, now i think it is likely that we are drawing to a split, but someone holding a 6 is a bit less likely, so id give us maybe 1.5 outs for that
5. betting here is going to make it more expensive to draw, now this i disagree with and ill explain why in a minute

i may have missed something, but please let me know if i did

reasons for betting:
1. we may have the best hand, i think have the best hand here more often than some may think, if noone started with a pair, it is unlikely that this flop helped anyone, if we have a board like 789, i think we have a very easy check
2. deception, if we check into this field after capping OOP, we are giving away our exact hand(if you disagree with this name another hand other than a big suited ace that we are playing like this)
3. betting may get us to the turn for cheaper than checking, BB is probably betting every time we check, but not raising every time we bet on this board , a check on this board i think signifies weakness, on an AKQ type board, it signifies strength, if i was one of these MP guys with like 77 or an ace high flush draw, i would put as much pressure on the SB as possible to see his hand through, but if SB bet out, they are probably going to be more fearful of a big pair
4. betting maintains the initive, like i said in my first reply, i would rep a pair until BB tells you he has one, if you check, you are telling him that you dont have one, yet you have no idea of his holdings, i dont like to be the one guessing here, make the BB question your holdings
5. the field isnt really that big, 3 players probably did not hit this board, add one or two more and i think it goes from being close to a clear check

now i dont know what BB or anyone elses ranges are here really, and i have no idea how to weight these factors, but im just trying to say that i think this is a lot closer than some might think

i pretty much figured a check would be the answer to this, but i think there are good reasons to bet too

[jason_t]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#cc3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.5 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks.

River: (10.5 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[newhizzle]

check and call, but dont over call, maybe raise if the last guy bets

[me454555]

I guess that the keys to this flop are 1) We are definatly continueing to the turn given the size of the pot 2) We are likely to be behind otf and 3) We can't protect out hand on the flop from any hand we want to fold b/c the pot is too big. Hands in this category include any A or 6. These hand will call 2 cold b/c the pot is so large that it is correct for them to do so.

Given all that information checking and calling is prolly the best option so we can reassess our hand on the turn

[elindauer]

I see two options:

- bet hoping to be raised by the BB
- check intending to see the turn as cheap as possible

Trying to use the BB to drive out opponents makes no sense to me. The hand you can fold that would be of any use is another ace, so that you scoop the pot if a 5 hits. However, given the loose-donkish nature of the other players, I simply don't believe they will ever fold these hands to a flop raise.

Further, the BB likely has you beat at this point. You hold AK, so there are a lot fewer combos of it left for him to even have you tied. If he has a pair, you must improved to win, so the only hands worth even considering driving out are hands you currently have dominated. You be trying to fold KJ to prevent the case where the turn and river are exactly KJ.

There are a few other scenarios where you might be glad you elliminated a hand on the flop. If the turn is a 5, you'll be glad you folded any 6s and maybe even 7s. If the turn is Ac or Kc or 5c, you may be glad you folded some middle club.

Yes, the pot is big, but these possibilities are also quite remote, and you have to pay to prevent it in the form of your extra flop expenses. Folding a club is only useful those times you catch the Ac, Kc, or 5c for example, AND the pfr doesn't have a club, AND the river is a 4th club. I don't think these chances are worth the expense.

Therefore, I check, planning to call.

-Eric

[me454555]

I think bet/fold is the best river line. BB likely has AK so lets put him to the test and see if he's willing to call w/just A high. Getting him to fold is huge b/c it would cost 1/2 the pot. The other 2 donks don't likely have much of a hand either but if they raise, you're a high is toast.

[elindauer]

There is no way these donks are laying down a pair. Check and play poker if you face a bet. You may even check-raise and knock the BB off a chopping AK occassionally.

-Eric