Moses (Custer) hand #2: Folding TPTK

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB (t1010)
Hero (t990)
UTG (t990)
UTG+1 (t1010)
UTG+2 (t970)
MP1 (t880)
MP2 (t1365)
MP3 (t745)
CO (t1015)
Button (t1025)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t45</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30.

Flop: (t142.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t275</font>, MP3 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t517.50

I am puzzled. What did he put him on? TT or 99?

I'm puzzled too. I'm going broke here for sure.

Why no pre-flop reraise?

[mlagoo]

it was raised to him and he was out of position. preflop looks, if not standard, definitely reasonable.

postflop is strange. i can only imagine that... Hero is thinking that if UTG+1 not only bets but raises into the preflop raiser, he has to have a fairly strong holding here. but i'm not convinced that UTG+1 couldnt have AQ here. I would think that making this raise with AT/TT/99 might actually be a mistake. i dunno though. i dont play at those levels.

[curtains]

I would not have folded. Probably would have moved allin.

[wuwei]

Preflop, I play it the same way most of the time.

The flop fold reminds me a bit of an AK hand I posted not too long ago... most didn't like folding that flop either. UTG+1's flop rr is fairly scary considering the action, but that's probably giving too much credit to random players.

nah, yer doubling up! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
I am puzzled. What did he put him on? TT or 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never played a $215, but I'd say his range is obvious and narrow for the majority of players. Just sit and think of what hands play this way.

For the ones you beat, how much are you going to lose? How will the hand play out? How probable is it he has one of these versus one of the ones you beat? What are your outs?

For the ones you beat, how much value are you going to extract? How will the hand play out?

I think the answer is obvious.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am puzzled. What did he put him on? TT or 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never played a $215, but I'd say his range is obvious and narrow for the majority of players. Just sit and think of what hands play this way.

For the ones you beat, how much are you going to lose? How will the hand play out? How probable is it he has one of these versus one of the ones you beat? What are your outs?

For the ones you beat, how much value are you going to extract? How will the hand play out?

I think the answer is obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not. You know what questions to ask, but it's not easy to come up with answers. He could easily have AQ here. KK is also possible.

[bigt439]

... these hands aren't getting any better...

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
You know what questions to ask, but it's not easy to come up with answers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking about the situation is much more valuable than the answer.

[ QUOTE ]
He could easily have AQ here. KK is also possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do they limp/call those hands? You think a player who limp/calls AQ or KK is going to often raise here?

If you're going to assume something about a player, make it be consistent throughout the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
... these hands aren't getting any better...

[/ QUOTE ]

Then, I guess you should simply be not reading any of these threads.

[Custer]

Probably the toughest early stages post flop decision I had all session. Thank you so much for posting it. Did I think he had TT or 99? No. It's tough to make a set, so my general rule in holdem is that if the only hand I am beat by is an extremely unlikely set, they get paid. I thought AT and A9 much more likely. AQ also possible, as is T9 and AJ. Who said KK? Go back and reread the hand. What odds am I getting? 845-2035,about 1.5 to 1, somewhat less when I have the best hand and my opponent folds. So the guy raised a 100 bet to 275. He didn't raise it to 200, he didn't raise it to 300. He raised it as much as possible without making it look like a big raise and not making it obvious (he could have made it 295). This with an A on the board, the PF raiser still to act behind him and the bb making a 2/3 pot bet. Would you take +150 that he had AQ and AJ vs. AT, A9, T9, TT, and 99? At the time, I decided not to. Looking at the decision again with lots of time (right now), I am even more confident that the fold was correct.

Thanks again for all the replies.

moses

[Custer]

I missed another point. The 845 chips I will lose are worth more per chip than the 1245 I might win. This skews the odds. How much more are those chips worth? Anyone who can correctly answer that question would be an AWESOME player. Becuase I don't think anyone has been able to prove it mathematically. ie no one knows for sure.

moses

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am puzzled. What did he put him on? TT or 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never played a $215, but I'd say his range is obvious and narrow for the majority of players. Just sit and think of what hands play this way.

For the ones you beat, how much are you going to lose? How will the hand play out? How probable is it he has one of these versus one of the ones you beat? What are your outs?

For the ones you beat, how much value are you going to extract? How will the hand play out?

I think the answer is obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not. You know what questions to ask, but it's not easy to come up with answers. He could easily have AQ here. KK is also possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch ! Did I say KK there? I must be smoking crack.

Moses, thanks for the insight. I probably would have pushed there.

[good2cu]

what limit is this?

[ QUOTE ]
what limit is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

200/15

Doesn't your lack of aggression here make his range much wider for the hands he could have?

I mean he raised a standard 3 times and then you just called (not the normal play with AK) the villian raised on the flop because he just smooth called his raise preflop, you haven't represented the hand that you have, that is why the villian is raising your bet.

I push but maybe I am just newb that doesn't know what he is doing

[Custer]

Your thoughts are good, but they don't pertain terribly much to this hand. Reread the posted hand.

moses

ahh yes I did F it up, I still go broke though.

[z32fanatic]

I go for check raise on this flop. The way you played it, I would probably fold as well. We are ahead of AJ and AQ, but behind 99, TT, AT, A9, and T9. With the raise I think we are behind because I doubt AJ raises here. I lean towards the fold but it's close. If the board was AT4 or A94 I would definitely push, but the T and 9 just open up too many possible holdings that we can't beat. I also have 850 chips remaining and can find better places to get it in during level 1.