Semibluff or Chip Spew?

Reads:

UTG is weak passive, will pay almost any price to see his draws.

MP is a conservative thinking player. Better than I am. Has built a huge stack and has never been caught bluffing. Will not put very much of his money in the middle without thinking he's got the winner, and he's almost always right.

I'm in LP with a very loose table image. I've made at least three $100 bluffs on the turn and river, then shown my hand afterwards. I haven't been position raising very often unless I have some kind of hand.

We're playing 1-2 NL Live. UTG has $200. I have $650. MP covers us both.

UTG makes it 20. MP calls. I call with 7
/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Everyone else folds

FLOP: ($63) Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG checks. MP checks. I think my 7 might be good here, so I bet $15 (too little in retrospect). UTG calls. MP raises to $45. I think that represents a fairly strong queen like KQ or QJ but probably not AQ, so I call thinking I'll shut down if I don't improve on later streets. UTG calls.

TURN: ($198) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

It's checked to me. I think the A must scare MP, plus it gives me a backdoor flush draw. If the flush (or 7 or 8) hits, I want to be able to double up through MP, but he's unlikely to call a $550 push into a $200 pot. So I bet $100, looking to either fold both players or build a pot in case I hit. UTG folds. MP thinks for several seconds, then calls. Now I'm sure he has a Q, but not AQ.

RIVER: The river is a total blank, 6
/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP bets $100. I contemplate a push, then fold.

Comments on all streets appreciated.

[JFB37]

On the flop, as you know, betting 1/4 the pot is useless. It isn't going to fold anyone and MP may well have interpreted it as a naked bluff, hence the c/r.

On the turn, again the bet was too small. You are only betting 1/2 the pot and it just doesn't look like you mean it. In that spot, why not just take the free card?

On the river, Villain has clearly made a blocking/value bet. Given your read, he might fold to a push but it is going to look suspicious. There is no way he is going to give you credit for 4 5. Here is where your weak bet on the turn hurts you and makes a push less credible.

[hgoodman]

Calling 10x the BB with suited connectors is going to cost you money in the long run. Not to mention, do you think MP is calling 10x the BB without a PP or AQ or better? Its either a set or AQ here.

[Big_Jim]

PF is fine.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that represents a fairly strong queen like KQ or QJ but probably not AQ, so I call thinking I'll shut down if I don't improve on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]
EWWWWW... two pair/trips/runner runner draw OOP is NOT WORTH IT. With this action, there's a distinct chance that you're drawing nearly dead.

FOLD

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling 10x the BB with suited connectors is going to cost you money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

10X the BB is not what he is considering here, it's stack sizes.

$20 is only 3% of his stack, and MP has him covered, and he has position on MP.

[JFB37]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling 10x the BB with suited connectors is going to cost you money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends how the table plays. Larger pf raises are common in low buy-in live games. Remember that Hero and MP are both fairly deep-stacked and Hero has position. I don't have a problem with the pf call.

[ QUOTE ]
Not to mention, do you think MP is calling 10x the BB without a PP or AQ or better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely why one might call pf with 87s in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
Its either a set or AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt it is a set. Why would a set check-call the turn? He's worried that someone has pocket Aces? Neither Hero or the pf raiser has played this like pocket Aces.

[tdomeski]

preflop is dependant on MP and how you view him and he views you...so that is all on you.

flop I would check or bet the pot

if i got to turn the way you did I check everytime

river fold.

holla.