Playing from the blinds: ATo ($33)

[Scuba Chuck]

I've been playing often enough to know who are the better players on the $33s now. Villain is a complete unknown. I actually went to PT to see if I had any data on him, and it was zilch.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP3 (t823)
CO (t785)
Button (t845) <font color="white"> 4s 5d </font>
SB (t770)
Hero (t700)
UTG (t420)
UTG+1 (t775)
UTG+2 (t1267)
MP1 (t845)
MP2 (t770)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t45) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t200</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t685 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t485.

Turn: (t1415) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1415) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1415

Well, he probably had two overcards and a flush draw, or a really high over pair, AA, KK. In all circumstances, it was not a great river for you. haha..

In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff.

Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this?

[GtrHtr]

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In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff.

Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this?

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What? Dan Harrington? Put the villain on a range of hands based upon the information you can gather from the action PF to the Flop raise of 200 to the Hero's pot sized bet.

[gumpzilla]

Why 3-bet push the flop? I think you might be okay here in terms of getting your money in ahead, but if that's so I suspect this guy is going to try and give it to you shortly anyway. The only hand that I'm happy I pushed now against is probably 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
In the words of Dan Harrington "your opponenet is telling you you're beat, you have no reason not to believe him" You haven't invested that much in it and the range of hands that villian plays like this all have you beat. You really only beat a bluff.

Do people at the 33's play K 10 like this?

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Yes, they do. I like Scuba's line.

[Scuba Chuck]

Here is my thought process. And a quick teaser is that I squarely put him on KT here.

PF: Villain limps. Now sometimes they do this with JJ+, but it's not common.

Postflop: The board is not one in which I think 2 pair is very common.

The reraise: Villain wants to take me off the hand. He either has nothing or something.

If I had to put percentages on what hands I think he has, it's the following:

5% JJ+
5% 2 pair+
30% Flush Draw
60% KT (or some Tx combo)

I think a push is clearly in order here.

Edit: I clearly need to think more, during the game, of additional hands. It's obviously possible that villain has KQ of spades, or 89 of spades, or just 89 as well. Furthermore, he could have T7 or T4. I am not giving him enough credit for these hands. Regardless, I think that KT (or JT or QT) play this hand the same way.

Finally, one hand that would be interesting is A4 of spades. That being said, I think that hand flat calls.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thought process. And a quick teaser is that I squarely put him on KT here.

PF: Villain limps. Now sometimes they do this with JJ+, but it's not common.

Postflop: The board is not one in which I think 2 pair is very common.

The reraise: Villain wants to take me off the hand. He either has nothing or something.

If I had to put percentages on what hands I think he has, it's the following:

5% JJ+
5% 2 pair+
30% Flush Draw
60% KT (or some Tx combo)

I think a push is clearly in order here.

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Looks just about right to me, except I think a set is more common than two pair, and the 60% includes random crap like middle pair. You're probably way behind only 15% of the time against a random player.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Looks just about right to me, except I think a set is more common than two pair, and the 60% includes random crap like middle pair. You're probably way behind only 15% of the time against a random player.

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Yeah, I was just thinking 10% is probably too light.

[gumpzilla]

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

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Fair enough. But how do I manage the %'s of hands that I'm behind, and the %'s of hands that are on the FD. And yes, I do think that KT calls me.

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

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Fair enough. But how do I manage the %'s of hands that I'm behind, and the %'s of hands that are on the FD. And yes, I do think that KT calls me.

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KT is a monster compared to what some people call with.

[pineapple888]

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

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Fair enough. But how do I manage the %'s of hands that I'm behind, and the %'s of hands that are on the FD. And yes, I do think that KT calls me.

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KT is a monster compared to what most 33 players call with.

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

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Fair enough. But how do I manage the %'s of hands that I'm behind, and the %'s of hands that are on the FD. And yes, I do think that KT calls me.

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KT is a monster compared to what most 33 players call with.

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ya, i thought that was implied...you can really add $55s to that from my limited experience.

[jeffraider]

Very nice hand, Scuba!

[bigt439]

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Finally, one hand that would be interesting is A4 of spades.

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Because it would finally prove party is rigged? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Nice hand though.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I think a push is clearly in order here.

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You haven't finished the analysis. So let's say you put him on that range. He'll presumably call with 2 pair and JJ+ hands. Is he going to call with just a T? If not, will he put more money in with the T down the road if you let him? These last things are the issues I'm concerned with. I think you also give too little weight to hands that beat you here and too much to precisely T's.

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Gump, was hoping you'd respond more to this thought. I think it's very good.

[gumpzilla]

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Gump, was hoping you'd respond more to this thought. I think it's very good.

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It's tough to expand on, because the questions that I'm interested in - what he's calling with and how much more he'll put in with T's down the road - are pretty sensitive to individual players. So the information I have to go on is the size of his raise, which is pretty substantial. Unfortunately, this can mean several different things in my experience:

1) I have a hand that I think is good, and I wish to protect it against the draws. Depending on the player, this could mean JJ+ or it could mean any T.

2) I have a big draw, and I'm happy to take the pot down right here. Again, depending on the player, the big draw could be a combination draw or just an OESD.

3) I have absolutely nothing, but I like betting.

The range of hands and of behaviors is going to be pretty wide. There are certain players who will fold if you push but will keep throwing money at you if you let them. Looking back at this hand, I think this board and the information we have to go on is just a little too dangerous to make that kind of plan worthwhile without a very solid idea that that's the kind of player we have, so I think your push is probably good on balance. But I think it's probably more an issue of not getting pushed off the best hand than extracting more from hands you're actually beating; I just can't see a wide range of T's calling, but I'm certainly surprised in that regard pretty often.