AKs EP, pick up draw on turn, empire 55r [Archive]

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schwza

12-09-2005, 12:36 PM

i just got to the table, but i have PT stats on villain from before. 16/6 in 250 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+2 (t3837)
MP1 (t6124)
MP2 (t5000)
MP3 (t3735)
CO (t5215)
Button (t3710)
SB (t6583)
BB (t2740)
UTG (t1360)
Hero (t4305)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t150, 2 folds, MP2 calls t150, 5 folds.

Flop: (t375) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t250, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

hero?

gobboboy

12-09-2005, 12:39 PM

I would bet 200 on this flop. Half the pot is more than enough to get him to fold a hand you beat and if you're beat he's calling this flop anyway.

On the turn I lead out for another half pot bet. If he raises, I would probably call if you don't have an image at the table. You have a ridiculous draw right now, with 18 outs likely giving you the best hand.

Sam T.

12-09-2005, 12:42 PM

Whatcha got on post-flop aggression?

He seems pretty tight, so I don't think he's doing this with air. A ten, maybe some mid pockets, and he is putting you on AK (since he can beat it).

If I think I can get a check behind, I'll check here. Blasting passive players out of pots is hard to do. If I think he's going to bet as soon as I show weakness, I probably fire another barrel, say t500.

ansky451

12-09-2005, 12:53 PM

I'd either check, with the intention of check raising, or bet something scary like full pot. If he pushes I'd insta call, and be unhappy about it. Betting half pot is just kind of weak, and lets him try to raise you off with his junky pair.

12-09-2005, 01:07 PM

I think I like a check/push. You probably get a bet/fold out of a good amount of the hands that called you on the flop (TP, PP, 2P), and you've got a lot of outs on hands that call you.

schwza

12-09-2005, 01:23 PM

i bet and got minraised.

MP2 (t5000)
Hero (t4305) 3255 left after the bet

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t150, 2 folds, MP2 calls t150, 5 folds.

Flop: (t375) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t250, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t650, MP2 raises to t1300, Hero

12-09-2005, 01:29 PM

Easy call... river could be hard to play if an A or a K falls, but you can't fold getting correct odds to draw for the nuts, and raising seems reckless.

gumpzilla

12-09-2005, 01:31 PM

I call pretty quickly. I think he's probably ahead here and I don't think he's going to fold that minraise to a push over the top, so I'd rather just wait and see if I can get money in when one of my 12 outs hits. And I might check-call a reasonable bet on the river if an A comes, so that's sort of a pseudo out.

schwza

12-09-2005, 01:55 PM

i thought about pushing for a bit, but chickened out and called. a big question i had was whether i was going to get called by JT/J9/QJ.

MP2 (t5000)
Hero (t4305) 2605 left

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t150, 2 folds, MP2 calls t150, 5 folds.

Flop: (t375) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t250, MP2 calls t250.

Turn: (t875) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t650, MP2 raises to t1300, Hero calls t650.

River: (t3475) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)

hero?

gumpzilla

12-09-2005, 02:01 PM

This depends pretty heavily on my opponent. I will occasionally check this to them, but the thing is that most hands he's likely to bet here are also pretty likely to call a bet on my part. So I bet about 1200 here, and really hope he comes over it. I think he can call 1200 with a fairly wide range of hands, whereas a push I think he'll only call with a K.

Sam T.

12-09-2005, 02:02 PM

No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

schwza

12-09-2005, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I will occasionally check this to them, but the thing is that most hands he's likely to bet here are also pretty likely to call a bet on my part.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd be surprised if villain bets anything but a K here. he's got to have enough of this board to want a free showdown if i give it to him.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he can call 1200 with a fairly wide range of hands, whereas a push I think he'll only call with a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. do you think he pushes with a K? if so, then it's a no-brainer to bet 1200.

gumpzilla

12-09-2005, 02:21 PM

I think he'll frequently, though not always, push with a K. The stacks are short enough relative to the pot that even a thinking player might believe that you're forced to call with less than a K, but that's up in the air. (EDIT: A player who is not very good probably thinks "Holy [censored], I have a K, I just owned this guys face off, push push push push push," so you can count on him to get it in. I don't know which this guy was.)

Pushing to extract the max from a K and sacrificing the rest of his range is giving up some money, I think. What hands with a K are plausible to have gotten this far that are also making that little minraise on the turn? Is he calling you PF and on the flop with KJ? It's not unheard of but it would be mildly surprising. So I think he's going to have a K somewhat rarely, but I don't have a good concrete range to put forth for him at the moment. And, as mentioned above, I think he will push with a K when he does have it often enough to balance this out even if he does show up with a K more often than I expect.

ansky451

12-09-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

schwza

12-09-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way I'm trying for the CR. Shove it on in there on the river, and get called by KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wasn't debating bet vs. check, because like i said in another post, i think only a K bets. i decided to bet 1300 and he called.

your read was way off. he had KJo and i wish i'd shoved. i was impressed/surprised that he only called the river, and i was definitely surprised that he called preflop with KJ (and to some extent the flop).

Rizen

12-09-2005, 02:29 PM

I think PF and flop are pretty straightforward. Arguing over the flop bet is kind of nitpicking, and anything between 200-300 is a good c-bet IMO.

On the turn I either bet an amount that is very close to pot sized or I check/push. His min-raise is interesting. I don't see you getting away from this hand here, and his min-raise is probably either super weak or super strong. In all honesty I'm not really sure what the right move is there, but I probably take the easy way out and call as well (not that calling is wrong, but it just feels so dirty).

Once you hit your hand on the river I probably shove rather than try a value bet with the stack sizes and board. I don't know that a K pushes over the top of you, and with that board I think that a push might look like a bluff or weak two pair often enough that you'll get called. I certainly think any hand he would call 1200 with he would call your shove with at least half as often.

-Rizen

Shameless plug for my poker blog:

http://rizenpoker.blogspot.com

12-09-2005, 02:31 PM

No, I don't think he pushes w/ a K. You should push, you get called by a K and likely any hand that was good up to that point since the push could look to him like you simply wanted to represent the K.

intheflatfield

12-09-2005, 03:07 PM

I push here w/ the Qd hitting on the turn. If he was drawing to a straight, or even if he hit it, he as to be concerned about the flush, and if he was also on the flush draw, he's dominated. I think I a mini-bet here just gives villain the opportunity to hijack the hand.

schwza

12-09-2005, 03:09 PM

i think he has a lot of 2 pair hands like T9, JT, J9, QT that will call 1/2-pot but not full. he may even find a fold with a set. he calls (or raises) 1/2-pot almost 100% given the action to here and often will raise a K. (my calling the turn raise should make AK unlikely in my hand). so we need him to call a push something like 60% i'd guess, and i think he can find a fold with most of his 2 pair hands.

schwza

12-09-2005, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn I either bet an amount that is very close to pot sized or I check/push

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting, you and ansky said the same thing. why do you like full pot over 3/4-pot? my thinking was "ok, just keep value betting the 'AA,' nothing out of the ordinary here."

bruce

12-10-2005, 12:05 PM

You are destined to win this hand b/c of villian's poor play. I'd be a wee bit surprised to see KJ calling a raise, but it certainly is not shocking. There are many
ways you could have played this hand. I think we're splitting hairs about the size of the flop bet. Who cares if you bet T75 more or less? Why would you want to checkraise all in on the turn with a draw? Your draw is not as big as it appears. You have a flush draw with three straight draws.
Even not knowing your opponents hand, no one could really
count an Ace or King as a clean out. So you have twelve
outs with one card to come. That's not exactly a monster draw in my book even with two cards to come. When villian
miniraises this usually suggest he has nothing or mostly a fairly big hand, which in fact is what he had.

I think the most interesting question would be if we had
an intelligent villian. How would you respond if he pushed on the turn? Now you're in the pickle jar.

Bruce