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Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 05:41 AM
BB is aggro but winning (28/15). BB is solid thinking player (19/10)

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Steveg12 is MP3 with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Steveg12 raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Steveg12 caps</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.00 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Steveg12 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>,

Now what? How about the turn so far?

calmasahinducow
12-09-2005, 06:01 AM
I think the pot is large enough to call down but I don't see a hand you're beating besides AQ based on the preflop raise from the BB. You are behind JJ, QQ, AA and there's no way KK does that on the turn and AK does that on the flop from BB's perspective.

goofball
12-09-2005, 06:37 AM
I'm a little iffy about the PF limp after one limper only.

Edited becaues I misread the action and though it was heads on the turn. I think you should have raised the turn. Given that you didn't, ugh. Even if BB is aggro he's gotta have a strong hand. If has a set you're dead, and if he has two pair there go 6 of your outs. Button did all that calling and now pops it I think he's got the nuts. Ugh, my mind, brain and soul all hurt as I say fold but...


Also, is BB the aggro but winning player or the solid thinking player?

etizzle
12-09-2005, 06:38 AM
i must say, i've never folded a set on a rainbow board but this is the time to do it. Buttons range IMO is QJ or KT, heavily weighted towards KT both because of combinations and not 3 betting the flop. BB's range is KTs (gotta be discounted a lot), JJ, QQ, and AA.

Plug those two into pokerstove and I believe its gonna be ugly. Here ya go:

Board: 2h Jd Qh Ah
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 06.2124 % 06.21% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Hand 2: 42.7386 % 39.67% 03.07% { AA, QQ-JJ, KTs }
Hand 3: 51.0491 % 47.98% 03.07% { KTs, QJs, KTo, QJo }

I think this is a fold, and if you believe my ranges (they are pretty much a lock for button IMO), then this is a fold by a mile. Personally I would call down and be really pissed, although after this analysis I hope I would fold it.

etizzle
12-09-2005, 06:39 AM
i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

bugstud
12-09-2005, 06:41 AM
can the button have Th9h here?

mc1023
12-09-2005, 07:22 AM
Bottom set with that much action on that kind of board I don't think your going to win here much based on the description of the players, their positions, and their flop actions.

clear fold IMO, your going to lose a lot of bets when behind and even when ahead you could get drawn out and really can't maximize the situation since you have to go into call-down mode at this point.

stoxtrader
12-09-2005, 10:27 AM
I think you can muck, and put BB on JJ, QQ, or AA.

oreogod
12-09-2005, 10:33 AM
wow. I fold.

Im assuming BB knows u, and u know BB decently well, so he must know that u have a killer hand at this point, yet keeps raising.

I hate and almost never fold a set...its rare, but I think this is the time to do it.

newhizzle
12-09-2005, 10:52 AM
which ones the 28/15 (im assuming BB) and who is he?

im pretty sure id call down, but AA/KK/JJ are possibilities, as is something like AQ, if were talking about DERB here or Kukivica or something, i really dont like folding

button is also a concern, but i think he raises preflop with anything that makes a higher set and probably AQ/AJ, so its looking like he probably has the straight(assuming hes the solid one and isnt going to rase a flush draw or something in this spot) which you have the odds to draw out on, of course your outs are tainted by BB's holdings, i think this is close, i would probably end up at least seeing a river and paying off one bet if possible, but it might be a fold, i would have a hard time laying down a set in this spot, but the board does suck

edit: i think preflop is close, but a fold, i would also raise the turn

12-09-2005, 10:53 AM
PREFLOP: With just one limper coming in front of you, I would fold 22 since you still have no idea if you will get the multiway actaion necessary for this hand to be profitable.

FLOP: Capping with your set looks fine. An alternative line would be to just call the BB's 3 bet with the intention of raising the turn.

TURN: This is where I dont like your play. When the BB leads out the turn you should not freeze up here and call, you should raise, you still have a guy behind you to worry about, and its very important in this large pot to do everything you can to protect your hand. If the Button has QJ,QT,KQ,AQ, the pot is now large enough where you would want to make him fold correctly or call incorrectly with these hands. I realize that the Button may never fold QJ or AQ if he has it but you can still force him to call incorrectly which is still +EV for you, but if youre turn raise makes him lay down a KQ or QT type hand this would be wonderful for your hand.

About you freezing up on the turn and just calling...I understand that this board is pretty scary but if you assume that the BB would play AA,QQ,JJ,AQ, and QJs the same way preflop+flop+turn, you are still an 11-9 favorite over the BB's range. Given the size of this pot, you should be willing to raise this turn even if you were an underdog to the BB's range to protect your hand the times it is good, but the fact that you are still a 11-9 favorite is more the reason you should be popping this turn.

OK, now given the way you played it, should you call the turn 3 bet? You are getting 9-1 odds to call this 3 bet and youre not closing the action. I still cant see folding here. If its 2 pair vs a straight you still have 4 outs, and youre almost getting the right price. IF its AQ vs QJ then you have the best hand and youre a big favorite to win this large pot. I know you could easily be drawing to 1 out, but this pot is large enough where you have to call IMO. There are still other illogical scenarios like AK vs AJ or AJ vs AQ, or AJ vs QJ, that you can hope for also.

Also, I assumed that the Aggro player was the BB and the solid player was the Button.

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 12:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
can the button have Th9h here?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I put him on KT or 109. I cant see him taking all that heat with just a Q, and I think he knows better than to smooth call the flop with QJ. Once he raised the turn, I was really more less thinking K10 and not much else, and the BB should know this, which is what makes his turn three bet even more scary.

Great responses so far I think. I am curious to hear more about the first decision on the turn, call VS raise.

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 12:50 PM
I thought the decision on the turn was close. I did think the button's most likely hands was probably K10, but 109 was a defintely possiblity, as well as a small chance he has something weird and random. But it sure looks like some sort of draw to the nuts. Once the BB can lead at that card, Im sorta with Stox and I put him JJ, QQ, AA, but at this point I think AQ is still a definite possibility. I thought about raising right there, but I thought calling might be better. Since there is a pretty good chance the button has just made the nuts, and the BB might get over agrro with a set on turn, I thought calling might allow me to get away from the hand if it got too ugly. If I raise that turn, the button is gonna three bet, the BB is gonna just call with the hands in his range, and I'm gonna end up putting in three bets on the turn and maybe one on the river out of spite, while drawing to one out a fair amount of the time.

Anyway I could be convinced otherwise, but calling felt right. I can give the BB a worse price if he has 109 by raising, but he is still coming along regardless of wether or not I raise. Since the bb has JJ QQ AA or AQ, (I think), after he leads the turn, I cant see how just calling is that wrong since there is also a good chance the button just made the nuts.

andyfox
12-09-2005, 01:14 PM
Sure seems like your in, at best, second place on the turn, and you might be drawing to a one-outer. I agree with your "scary" characterizaton of the BB's actions, especially considering he bet into your flop cap when an ace came. An ace comes on the turn and a guy still bets after there's been a lot of flop action, and my experience is that he's either got snow or a hand where he wants to be raised.

Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 01:21 PM
Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree with you and others that Im taking a little bit of the worst of it limping behind there. Its just that calling is way more fun than folding. Thats gotta count for something right?

andyfox
12-09-2005, 01:32 PM
Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 01:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the post Andy. Your thinking is pretty similar to mine.

12-09-2005, 02:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im the one that came up with the 11:9 figure, and I just wanted to point out to you that this number is not "strictly mathematical", in fact this figure is based almost purely on logic. The only hands I have in the villain's range that constitute this number are the hands that I think the villain would logically play this way, AQ,AA,QQ,JJ,QJs. I think if you look at the action preflop+flop by this aggresive player you will see that there is a good chance he would play all these holdings the exact same way. So based on logic and mathematics, the hero is a small favorite to have the best hand which is why I think raising is the correct move on the turn since at this point in the hand the hero didnt know the guy behind him had a likely straight.

andyfox
12-09-2005, 03:09 PM
Thanks. I'd discount Q-Js somewhat, since most players are more likely to knuckle, than raise, preflop with this hand, and the turn ace might slow Q-J down, especially out of position again two opponents, one of whom capped the flop.

When I said "strictly mathematical," I didn't mean to imply that you hadn't considered what hands BB was likely to have given the action. (Your analyses are unfailingly well-thought out and instructive.) A guy keeps betting like this I usually put greater emphasis on him having a great hand rather than a very good one. But no doubt BB wouldn't put either of his opponents on a set, given that neither of them raised pre-flop and he might figure Steve would slow play a set of 2s. And guys just don't put other guys on sets of deuces. He'd have reason to believe A-Q was the best hand, putting Steve on Q-J.

Your point, as usual, is well taken.

DcifrThs
12-09-2005, 03:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

[/ QUOTE ]

i can almost guarantee you that bb=thinking solid 19/10 otherwise there wouldn't be a problem...

as to the hand, AQ is the only hand you beat, but you definately have the button beat. ive folded a set to this action 2 times that i can remember but the guys stats were like 15/9/1 and 17/10/1...

here i think is a fold not because of what the bb has, but what the button's most likely hand is (KT) but lets look at some bb vs. stevieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee math

AQ=9
AA=6
QQ=6
JJ=6

your odds=18:2 immediate, 21:3 efffective assuming button doesn't do anything else but go to a showdown right now. so we're looking at 7:1...its 2:1 you're ahead of button using straight math, if bb only raises AQs here instead of AQ its still just 4.5:1 and looks like its a call down.

the problem here is a few things can happen (besides of course the 1/44 event we'd all love to ocurr)
1)the button has both of you drawing right now

1a) you get there (J pairs) and you have to call again

1b) you dont get there and its ANOTHER 2 bets to you

2) button caps and you get 20:4 immediate on the turn and its another bet or 2 to you on river so 22:5 at the best case scenario after a cap (which is very unlikely to happen)

3) you fold the best hand (which has 2 ways of looking at its costs...the difference between your would have been win and the expectation you had given your estimates of odds...and your true odds*potsize - your effective odds*potsize where true odds is the actual known distribution of each player's hand at the moment you have to call- which cannot be truly known)

given all this, i an argument can be made for calling the bb...but the button can still cap and personally i think button has you drawing to unknown cards... id fold here in real time assuming 19/10 is bb and button is 28/15

Barron

threeonefour
12-09-2005, 03:46 PM
i don't think anyone has mentioned this yet but i think there is a distinct chance both players have KT. something to think about anyway. the Button is representing KT and the BB threebets anyway?

EDIT: i know people think it might be impossible due to the preflop action. but the turn action seems to indicate it, and even solid players mix it up and do strange things sometimes.

DcifrThs
12-09-2005, 03:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think anyone has mentioned this yet but i think there is a distinct chance both players have KT. something to think about anyway. the Button is representing KT and the BB threebets anyway?

EDIT: i know people think it might be impossible due to the preflop action. but the turn action seems to indicate it, and even solid players mix it up and do strange things sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

Barron

12-09-2005, 04:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I'd discount Q-Js somewhat, since most players are more likely to knuckle, than raise, preflop with this hand, and the turn ace might slow Q-J down, especially out of position again two opponents, one of whom capped the flop.

When I said "strictly mathematical," I didn't mean to imply that you hadn't considered what hands BB was likely to have given the action. (Your analyses are unfailingly well-thought out and instructive.) A guy keeps betting like this I usually put greater emphasis on him having a great hand rather than a very good one. But no doubt BB wouldn't put either of his opponents on a set, given that neither of them raised pre-flop and he might figure Steve would slow play a set of 2s. And guys just don't put other guys on sets of deuces. He'd have reason to believe A-Q was the best hand, putting Steve on Q-J.

Your point, as usual, is well taken.

[/ QUOTE ]
Andy if we eliminate QJs, the hero would then be neutral at 9:9 against the BB's range. In this situation I would still feel compelled to raise the turn to protect my hand the times it is good, but if I somehow had all this information heads up I would just call down, since I would see no use in putting more money in the pot when I'm just even money to have the best hand.

DcifrThs
12-09-2005, 04:12 PM
westley,

what does button have?

button is agro and winning.

was there a flush draw on the flop? what did he do nothing but CALL WITH that whole time.

steve played this hand expertly (assuming he folded) other than the pf call.

edit: also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn.

Barron

Justin A
12-09-2005, 04:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
westley,

what does button have?

button is agro and winning.

was there a flush draw on the flop? what did he do nothing but CALL WITH that whole time.

steve played this hand expertly (assuming he folded) other than the pf call.

edit: also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure but I think Steve meant to say that button is solid and thinking, while BB is the aggro but winning player.

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 04:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
westley,

what does button have?

button is agro and winning.

was there a flush draw on the flop? what did he do nothing but CALL WITH that whole time.

steve played this hand expertly (assuming he folded) other than the pf call.

edit: also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure but I think Steve meant to say that button is solid and thinking, while BB is the aggro but winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry if i was unclear. The button is probably a small winner but he is a little too aggro and sees a few too many flops. The bb is a typical solid 20/10/1.5

SpaceAce
12-09-2005, 05:34 PM
[ QUOTE ]
there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 0% chance that the above statement is correct. Not only is there the online misclick factor but also the human factor - people occasionally do things you don't expect.

I'm not saying the guy has KT, but assigning a 0% chance to any particular holding is ridiculous, especially as the action unfolds and new information comes to light.

SpaceAce

oscark
12-09-2005, 05:41 PM
Yeah, this hand was not fun.

Oscar

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 05:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this hand was not fun.

Oscar

[/ QUOTE ]

Oscar=Player in BB?

SackUp
12-09-2005, 05:49 PM
i put the bb squarely on QQ /images/graemlins/wink.gif

oscark
12-09-2005, 05:51 PM
Unfortunately.

DcifrThs
12-09-2005, 05:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 0% chance that the above statement is correct. Not only is there the online misclick factor but also the human factor - people occasionally do things you don't expect.

I'm not saying the guy has KT, but assigning a 0% chance to any particular holding is ridiculous, especially as the action unfolds and new information comes to light.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

allow me to rephrase /images/graemlins/grin.gif. i'll lay you 199:1 on whatever money u feel comfortable wagering that bb does not have KTs or KTo. if there is a misclick factor along w/ human nature then this wager should be very attractive to you...if not, then .5% probability of him having KTo or KTs is too high for your risk aversion factor...thus if you were in the hand, its effectively a 0% probability that the solid thinking (in stevie's words "super solid") bb would have those hands given the preflop action. then factor in the flop action ... and if its NOT zero, the chance is so close to zero as to be meaningless for analytical purposes.

care to wager?

Barron

andyfox
12-09-2005, 06:21 PM
"also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn."

The 11-9 was in reference to Steve's play the first time around on the turn, when there was just a bet from the BB. At that point, the hands Westley has listed are the most likely holdings for the big blind, although for reasons I've indicated in another post in this thread, I think Q-J is unlikely.

DcifrThs
12-09-2005, 06:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
"also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn."

The 11-9 was in reference to Steve's play the first time around on the turn, when there was just a bet from the BB. At that point, the hands Westley has listed are the most likely holdings for the big blind, although for reasons I've indicated in another post in this thread, I think Q-J is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty andy. i misread that. i also vasly discount QJs

Barron

Steve Giufre
12-09-2005, 07:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
"also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn."

The 11-9 was in reference to Steve's play the first time around on the turn, when there was just a bet from the BB. At that point, the hands Westley has listed are the most likely holdings for the big blind, although for reasons I've indicated in another post in this thread, I think Q-J is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, and I think QJ is pretty much impossible. I'm really not even sure Oscar plays AQ like that (up to this first turn bet.) I know a lot of guys would, but its not entirely possible he may have slowed down a bit with that hand. Maybe we can get him to chime in since he just popped up.

After he three bets the turn I think AQ very unlikely but I could be wrong. I think he should put he stop sign up with jj qq and aa included.

12-09-2005, 09:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
westley,

what does button have?

button is agro and winning.

was there a flush draw on the flop? what did he do nothing but CALL WITH that whole time.

steve played this hand expertly (assuming he folded) other than the pf call.

edit: also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
Barron, the 11:9 favorite part only pertains to why the hero should initially raise the turn. Once the hero just calls the turn and it goes raise and 3 bet behind him, I understand that the hero's hand has been severly devalued. And maybe it is right to fold this turn, but I will just come right and say it, I cant fold this hand even on that board in this huge pot, when I know there is one opponent for sure that is very aggressive. I am not saying its right to call down here, Im just saying what I would do. And If this is a leak in my game I am comfortable with this flaw.

Steve Giufre
12-10-2005, 12:16 AM
I folded. They capped the turn, and Oscar check called the buttons river bet. Oscar had QQ and the button had K10.

I felt OK about folding the turn after the three bet, but I was unsure about whether or not I should raise the first turn bet or not. After thinking about it more and reading some of the responses I'm pretty sure I got it right (regardless of the results.) Even though I think AQ is highly unlikely, if he does have it, I do only have 4 outs to the best hand, and Im pretty sure its getting capped behind me.

12-10-2005, 01:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I folded. They capped the turn, and Oscar check called the buttons river bet. Oscar had QQ and the button had K10.

I felt OK about folding the turn after the three bet, but I was unsure about whether or not I should raise the first turn bet or not. After thinking about it more and reading some of the responses I'm pretty sure I got it right (regardless of the results.) Even though I think AQ is highly unlikely, if he does have it, I do only have 4 outs to the best hand, and Im pretty sure its getting capped behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Easy fold IMO /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
NH, thanx for posting the results, I think the whole world wanted to see this one.

golferbrent
12-11-2005, 03:46 AM
Steve,

I think you are in big trouble here. If the BB is solid as you say... then I dont see him holding a hand you beat here. Preflop he has 1 of four hands (A-A,K-K,Q-Q, and A-K). Based on the flop action and the ensuing turn action you can now put him on exactly 2 hands... A-A or Q-Q.

Based on this analysis, I have you solidly in third place. The button surely has to have K-10. It is the only hand he can call all those bets on the flushless flop and then raise the turn with. I hope you found the courage to fold on the turn.

As far as the other people putting the BB on a wider range I don't see it if he is a solid player. I wouldn't even include J-J in his range. I don't see a solid player raising a field of 5 others with J-J OOP. Not going to happen.

Only, slight mistake you made was possibly calling preflop. In general, I don't see this as a huge mistake, but if you grow too fond of these hands it will become a mistake. Every now and then... limping with baby pairs is ok. What a bummer of a pot... but I hope you lost the min!

DcifrThs
12-11-2005, 12:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
In general, I don't see this as a huge mistake, but if you grow too fond of these hands it will become a mistake. Every now and then... limping with baby pairs is ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

given the game description (party higher limits) pf, why is limping behind 1 limper w/ a small pair sometimes good? why is it only ok every now and then?

Barron

golferbrent
12-11-2005, 05:28 PM
Depending on the context of the game... you will get the volume to justify the limp to flop a set, occasionally. However, personally I wouldn't limp unless I have 2 limpers in front of me.

However, overlimping will sometimes encourage the right type of player behind you to overlimp as well. Thus creating the volume you are looking for. It is a hard situation to explicitly describe, but you know it when you see it.

DcifrThs
12-11-2005, 06:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Depending on the context of the game... you will get the volume to justify the limp to flop a set, occasionally. However, personally I wouldn't limp unless I have 2 limpers in front of me.

However, overlimping will sometimes encourage the right type of player behind you to overlimp as well. Thus creating the volume you are looking for. It is a hard situation to explicitly describe, but you know it when you see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought you were im plying that in this spot in this situation its ok to overlimp 22 after 1 limper occasioanlly.

i dont think its ever ok to limp 22 after 1 limper in this game in that spot. thus i asked clarification.

if its a loose game, and fairly passive, then its a totally different game than the one steve is writing about. in all likelihood at 1/2 after you limp 22 after 1 limiper, somebody will raise, or one more person will limp and it'll be between 3-5 handed with you not in an ideal position to extract the most from your set or better the 1 in 8.5 times you hit. further, you wont get paid off as well and overall i think 22 here limping after 1 limper is always a mistake.

Barron

golferbrent
12-11-2005, 07:54 PM
In the 1/2 game it is definitely a bad play. However, this was a 50/100 hand and in my experience that game is more passive then the 1/2. It plays fairly similar to the 30/60... not identical but similar. I don't think overlimping is a habit you want to get into... no matter what your holding. However, in that 50 or the 30 I don't think it is entirely wrong to do occasionally.

In the 1/2 it is always wrong here.

chaosuk
12-11-2005, 08:17 PM
This isn't a logical approach at all. You can't simply reverse-engineer to the hands he would play the flop onwards and not weight their preflop-flop probs (assuming you haven't down so).

For analysis for this type of player in this scenario raising from BB p/f: I'd likely put AA-QQ at 100(-d)%; JJ 70%; QJs 5%; AQ 10%; AQs: 30%

AQ has to be discounted a little on the flop too.


I also think, that bty raising on the turn (a mistake I'd easily make here) I'm struggling to protect myself against many hands at all - i.e. by protecting I mean getting hands to fold that I fear will outdraw me - I prlly won't get em to fold. Even if those hands fold, I can't see it being worth the trade-off for doing someone else's value-raising.

chaos

DcifrThs
12-11-2005, 08:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
In the 1/2 game it is definitely a bad play. However, this was a 50/100 hand and in my experience that game is more passive then the 1/2. It plays fairly similar to the 30/60... not identical but similar. I don't think overlimping is a habit you want to get into... no matter what your holding. However, in that 50 or the 30 I don't think it is entirely wrong to do occasionally.

In the 1/2 it is always wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i forgot this hand was 50 /images/graemlins/frown.gif my bad.

Barron

golferbrent
12-11-2005, 10:12 PM
np... Do you agree that the games are substantially different? In my experience I have felt that they are... just curious what others thoughts are?

ike
12-11-2005, 10:21 PM
I disagree. I think small pairs are great in the big party games and you stand to get paid off very well, very often. I'd rarely fold 22 after a limper.

DcifrThs
12-11-2005, 10:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I think small pairs are great in the big party games and you stand to get paid off very well, very often. I'd rarely fold 22 after a limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

well we can disagree then b/c i dont think the pot gets multiway and you hit your set enough or you dont face another 2 back to you that its worth it after 1 limper.

this is of course assuming the players behind you are not all loosey goosey and passive b/c typically they'll be agressive and tighter than the game in which i would play 22 after a limper.

Barron

ike
12-11-2005, 10:49 PM
It occurs to me that our disagreement is probably a moot point. My guess is that each time this sort of situation actually comes up we're both looking at the numbers on the players behind us and making pretty similar choices. On a side note, have you been playing this game much lately?

DcifrThs
12-11-2005, 11:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It occurs to me that our disagreement is probably a moot point. My guess is that each time this sort of situation actually comes up we're both looking at the numbers on the players behind us and making pretty similar choices. On a side note, have you been playing this game much lately?

[/ QUOTE ]

nope, but ive peeked in on occasion. when i did used to play it for the most part i would not be limping 22 after 1 limper. so the dynamics could have easily changed.

either way you're right in that its kinda a moot point. steve played well and folded.

Barron