stars NLHE decision

[kirisim]

I'm in this $10 NLHE on Stars. Started with 270 people, down to 17 now. Most stacks around 20K or less, with a couple around 60K. I'm in good shape with 30K (I'm about 4 out of 17.) Blinds 1K/2K with T100 ante.

First place is $750, second about $450. Right now we're in the money - I'm getting $30 on my $10 investment. Only the top three places will be meaningful money to me.

Folded to my SB. I have A7o. The BB is a known caller and will frequently defend. He has 22K. I think a few seconds and raise to 6K. He thinks, and thinks, and thinks, and reraises allin. I think he's weak. I think I've got him. I call. He's got KQo, outflops me, and I'm cut way down and out next hand.

So on the one hand

1)I thought I had the best hand and it turns out I did(57-43 favorite)
2)I want a huge stack going to the final table
3)Only the top three positions are meaningful money - this is only a $10 tournament after all

On the other hand:

1)I've got a good stack and I can cruise for a while
2)A7 is not that good a hand; I'm only a big favorite over an ace with a lower kicker
3)It is idiotic to call off my large stack now with this crappy hand


It occured to me this may raise the issue of Sklansky's "Maximize your EV" vs. Daniel's "Go for the WIN." Comments?

[Copernicus]

Another Sklansky-ism...don't raise a meangingful amount if you'll hate a re-raise.

Either you made a mistake in raising to start with, and hate this re-raise, or you were ready to fold to a re-raise (certainly the third possiblity..that you are so strong you'd love a re-raise doesnt apply), and then made a mistake in changing your mind.

For me 6k is too big a % of my stack to risk on A7o vs a meangingful stack. He can fold rags to any raise, he can put you on a steal and stay true to his "defend the blinds" history with a slightly (but not much)better or worse hand, or he can dominate you. As the Anti-MeatLoaf said, two of three aint good, and the other one you didnt have to risk so much.

[fnurt]

I've seen this post before, and it always elicits all these responses like don't get involved on coin flips, blah blah blah, but the bototm line for me is you were paying 16k for a shot at winning 28k, those are huge odds to be getting when you're a favorite. You had a read on this guy based on what you had seen him defend with, you thought you were the favorite, you were right. To me it's the right decision.

It's true that if you have a BB who defends a lot, you should be more reluctant to raise from the SB, but I think A7 is a good enough hand that you have to raise it.

[Copernicus]

Did I misread something?

When the blinds and antes totaled $3800, how is he risking 16k to win 28k? Its heads up..he can't be getting implied odds of any better than (smaller stack + 3800)/ (smaller stack) at any point in time, which is something like 26/22.

Whatever the odds are post-flop, pre-flop he was giving the BB odds of $8,800 to $4,000, betting from a steal position, into a known defender. He has virtually no folding equity. Cards wise he is risking $5,000 to pick up $3,800 immediately, or 26/22 ultimately. Bad pre-flop raise.

I agree once the all-in comes back he is probably pot-bound, but never should have been in that position to start with.

[fnurt]

There is 28k in the pot, 22k from the BB and 6k from our hero's initial raise. So he needs another 16k to call.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Assuming we're dealing with stack sizes before the blinds, his raise ($6,000) + the ante ($800) + the all-in raise which includes the BB ($22,000) = a pot size of $28,800. He needs to put in $16,000 to call. He's getting 9-5 odds from the pot. Not enough if his opponent has a pair or a bigger ace, but more than enough if his read is correct.

[cferejohn]

I think this comes down to a read. You made it. It was right, and he out drew you. I raise A7o from the SB 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. As for the reraise, it comes down to how your opponent had been playing. If he often come over the top of LP raisers, I call. If he had never or rarely done it, I probably fold if his stack is close in size to mine (which it evidently was). These are the kinds of chances you are probably going to have to take late in a tournament if you want to win. They aren't always going to pan out (otoh, sometimes you will be the small underdog who outflops the favorite). Make this play 100 times and you'll become one of the chip leaders late in the tournament over half the time. I'll take that.

[kirisim]

Yeah, that was my point. I want to be the guy at the final table with 90k when everyone has 30K. Plus, as I said, the money wasn't that meaningful to me.

If this was a bigger tournament, say $100 or above, I would have folded the A7 to begin with.

[Copernicus]

Not a misread..just looking at things at two different points in time. I was looking at the ultimate implied odds he could expect when making his initial decision to raise to 6k. That decision puts him pot-bound to any reraise, and at that time his total implied odds are only 26/22. It is dubious logic to reason that he's getting great pot-odds on a reraise, when its his own money that will create those odds.

With a sufficient stack you can always make a raise that is large enough to odds-justify a reraise all-in if you are counting your own money, no matter what hits on the flop....ie you can always make yourself pot-bound. Having the odds to call post-flop is an illusion you created yourself when you make the pre-flop mistake.

[curtains]

If you are going to fold A7o in the SB in that spot in $100 tourneys, you shouldnt be playing $100 tourneys

[Rickfish]

I agree. What is the difference between a $10 tournament and a $100 tournament? None really, only some people play better in the $100 (because they play tighter) and some play worse (because they are too tight).

[kirisim]

For me the difference might be this. In a $10 tourney that pays 27, places 11-18 get about $30. For making the final table you might get only a measly $50. In a $100 tourney, places 11-18 get about $300. But if you make the final table you get $500. So what I'm saying is, there's actual meaningful money to be won by playing tight and creeping up the ladder.

Regarding the guy who said I shouldn't play the $100 tourneys if that would change my decision, you are right. I typically dont play the $100 tourneys unless I win a satellite.

But let me ask you this: Would your decisions at 2 tables in the WSOP 10K event be different from a $100 event? In this case, creeping up the ladder can mean the difference of tens of thousands of dollars.

[Ignatius]

There is about T4000 when it gets to you, a pot sized raise would be to T8000 and there's only a 9% chance that he has a dominating hand. Others will probably disagree, but out of position against a tricky opponent I'd tend to move in here. You need a hell of a read on him (which you had) to make more profit from your medium ace by raising small or calling; still I'd rather try to take it down now, than trying to "trap" him with two facecards and play a 3:2 pot for all the marbles.