Debatable theory question= AK vs. pocket pairs

[bunky9590]

A recent tourney situation (and a little time to think) gave me the opportunity to come up with this debate. What do you feel more comfortable moving in with AK or pocket pairs (in general).

Here's my thinking, I am pretty sure that preflop that AK (suited or not) is a 13:10 underdog to pocket pairs (except for AA and KK obviously) the suited aspect will change things in the numbers. The pocket pairs are the same favorite to the AK but are major underdogs to higher pairs (4:1 sound about right?)

Here's my question over the long haul would it be more beneficial to just move in with AK (suited or no) against what you believe to be pocket pairs. (or lets say you knew they had a pocket pair for whatever reason) The pocket pairs definitely have a tougher decision to make (the lower the pair the tougher the decision). Would it be a positive EV over the long haul. Or is my thinking completely off base.

Oh, and lets not consider stack sizes, position in tourney, etc. Just the confrontation of AK vs pairs.

[J.R.]

The short answer is yes. Buy Sklansky's tournament book.

The idea is - 11:10 odds for an underpocket pair v. AK. Factor in the odds for the few times when you opponent has KK and AA, and the chance they have undercards or are dominated (AK v. A8, etc.). Then factor in the percentage of time they will fold a better hand when you move in with AK to get the exact answer. Other thoughts favoring moving in with AK include the difficulty of playing AK post flop (when you may get moved of the best hand on a raggedy flop) and the small chance that even if you are behind on the flop, the turn or river might help you.

In general, moving in with AK is the best play if your opponent will fold a better hand some of the time and/or will call with a worse hand some of the time

[Jimbo]

I believe this is the type of hand where you consider how much better you play than your opponnent. If you are the better player and you are sure they have a pocket pair why knowingly take the worst of it? Conversly if you feel you ae not the most skilled player you should be willing to accept a coin flip type hand. If you think the pocket pairs will fold to your all-in bet what does it matter what two cards you have? Any two will do under those circumstances.

[Louie Landale]

AK beats a LOT more hands than does 22, especially the kinds of hands that may call a big raise. It really doesn't matter that 22 beats AK heads up.

- Louie

[Cyrus]

"AK beats a LOT more hands than does 22 ... It really doesn't matter that 22 beats AK heads-up."

Here's some probabilities about AK squaring off against 22. It's really close!

AK suited vs 22
(with 22 being of different suit than AK,
e.g. A/forums/images/icons/spade.gifK/forums/images/icons/spade.gif vs 2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif2/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif)
22 Wins 49.62% | Loses 49.75% | Ties 0.63%

AK suited vs 22
(with one deuce having the same suit as AK,
e.g. A/forums/images/icons/spade.gifK/forums/images/icons/spade.gif vs 2/forums/images/icons/spade.gif2/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif)
22 Wins 50.00% | Loses 49.33% | Ties 0.67%

AK off-suit vs 22
(with 22 being of different suit than either A or K,
e.g. A/forums/images/icons/spade.gifK/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif vs 2/forums/images/icons/club.gif2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif)
22 Wins 52.77% | Loses 46.65% | Ties 0.58%

AK off-suit vs 22
(with one deuce having the same suit as the Ace,
e.g. A/forums/images/icons/spade.gifK/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif vs 2/forums/images/icons/spade.gif2 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif)
22 Wins 52.31% | Loses 47.08% | Ties 0.61%

And here is how every pocket pair fares going against AKsuited heads-up :

<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr> against A K suited

Won% Lost% Push%
22 49.62 49.75 0.63
33 50.31 49.14 0.55
44 50.98 48.53 0.49
55 51.57 47.99 0.43
66 51.96 47.68 0.37
77 51.96 47.71 0.34
88 52.12 47.53 0.35
99 52.19 47.44 0.37
TT 53.71 45.92 0.37
JJ 53.68 45.94 0.38
QQ 53.56 46.04 0.40
KK 65.49 33.69 0.82
AA 87.22 11.53 1.25



</pre><hr>


Notes:

* The suits of each pair are different than the suit of AKs.

* A 10m sim was run for every row in the above table.

* The table was drawn up years ago so I hope the probabilities haven't changed much since then. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Aragorn]

If you know what you opponent has, you might as well wait until you have a better situation like pocket 9's against his pocket 8's.

Unless someone has a HUGE tell or you have buddy standing behind him, you will never face this decision.