Sit and o hadn - top pair and flush draw

[nicky g]

9 handed NLHE on Victor Chandler. This is the first hand. I'm on the button with my starting stack 2000 and all but one or two call to me. I have K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . I toy with the idea of going all-in to try to steal the lot but it seems a little early for such shenanigans /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif . I limp. Small blind completes, we see a flop, which contains a King and two rag hearts. It is checked to the CO who bets 100 into a pot of 300 or so. I raise to 400, everyone folds to the CO, who calls. Turn is a blank. He check, I checks. River is a blank. Check, check. Comments?

All I'll say for the moment is that my flop raise is obviously too small - I made it looking at the size of his bet rather than thinking about the pot size, which was a mistake. Would anyone consider moving in on the flop?

[gunboat]

Fold that piece of cheese preflop.

All-in on flop? Since you did not raise preflop, you will be called most of the time by top pair, good kicker or sometimes even middle pair. Too early to risk your stack.

[cferejohn]

I'd fold this preflop every time. The only time I would ever play this is on a steal (i'd like a big pre-flop raise better than a call - not all in though; there doesn't seem to be any reason to commit that many chips in the first round). The fact that there are a lot of callers makes me even less prone to call, since it makes for a better chance that Ax of hearts is out there.

If you hit a flop, you are mostly winning a small pot or losing a big one. What are you hoping to be up against? Jx or Qx of hearts? That's not going to happen very often unless someone happens to have specifically QJ or JT. That's 2 hands that might call that you beat, then there is Ax hearts (10 hands, or 9 if you think AhQh would have raised - hardly a sure thing, esp. with all the limpers), which kills you (plus the possibility that the naked Ah outdraws you). And once you discount the flush possibility, you are really in trouble. You're pretty much hoping to flop 2 pair and be up against a king. If he has KQ you might win a decent sized pot, but any worse king probably isn't going all the way with this so you again are winning a small pot. And if he flopped a better 2 pair, or gets one later, you are really screwed.

You could also possibly win if 2 4s come, but again, who is playing hands with a 4 in them (other than A4s, which you obviously do not want to be up against)? 45s?

To tie this together, I would say "if you need to hit 2 cards on the flop to like your hand, and even then you may be up against a hand which dominates it, you don't want to see a flop (i.e. steal or fold)". Not the most concise thing I've ever said, but hey, it never stopped Andy Rooney.

I assume you got beat by something like KT?

[nicky g]

Hmm. I don't really agree with folding this preflop. There's a family pot and I'm on the button with a reasonable drawing hand. It only cost me 1/50 of my stack to call.
I also think you understimate how strong my hand is on the flop. Multiway it's in danger, but heads up, it's almost even money against top pair better kicker, and can't beaten both ways on the flop (I either have the best hand or the best draw heads-up). I'm in bad shape against a set or top 2 but those aren't particularly likely, and even then I have outs to the flush. My problem here is the money situation; my raise has left me with a large chunk of change in the pot and, when he calls, a much weakened hand that I can no longer really bet on the turn. So in some ways I should have folded prefop, as one of my best flops (pair and flush draw) leaves me in a trouble money situation and I may not be able to get it heads-up in such a large multiway pot (indeed someone may be setting a trap behind me), and I agree that this isn't really the time to be gambling it up for my whole stack. But on the other hand I have huge implied odds preflop and i got away from it without too much damage to my stack. He had KJ and won. I came third which at least ended my bubble run.

[cferejohn]

"Family pot" is a bad thing in no limit, especially with drawing hands that look to make the 2nd nut. In limit, more players equals bigger implied odds, but in no limit, you usually get all the implied odds you need from the fact that if you hit your hand, you can get a single person all-in.

Conversely, your reverse implied odds from making the second best hand is your entire stack. I agree that if there is a time to call with this, its when it is for relatively little of your stack, so if you don't flop a flush or a flush draw, you can get away cheaply (obviously you must be willing to fold top pair if you get action).