$109... This isn't exactly what I had in mind...

[bigt439]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t1280)
MP3 (t585)
CO (t1290)
Button (t1165)
Hero (t970)
BB (t975)
UTG (t1800)
UTG+1 (t1135)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, BB calls t150, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t150, CO folds.

Turn: (t630) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 checks.

River: (t630) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t200</font>, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: t830

Great turn. Better River.

I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. I also don't think that I can call the river to try and chop since a K and hearts beat me. I don't think this hand is very interesting. Reassure me.

[curtains]

"I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. "

Not sure what the above means. Usually you are more likely to bet at a pot with a decent holding when the pot is large.

[Scuba Chuck]

You really gotta hate how the kings counterfeit your kicker. I fold here.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
"I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. "

Not sure what the above means. Usually you are more likely to bet at a pot with a decent holding when the pot is large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think that is universally true.

In any case, I said what I did because I don't have room to find a fold to any action and it is likely that if big money goes in this pot I'm drawing to at most 4 outs against a flush. My point was that the pot is too big relative to my stack for me to do a whole lot of maneuvering. It just really looks like I was up against at least on heart draw on the flop, but I'm open to suggestions.

[tigerite]

Horrible spot, I think I'd have to bet the turn here, I might sometimes c-r the flop as well, depends on how aggro the opponents were. Thing is if someone else has an ace, they will bet it for you, because they want to drive out heart draws.. meh.

We're not good on the river 1/5 of the time here?

IMHO, the hands that seem to make most sense for MP are Ax (including Axh).

Board: 7h 9h Ad Kh Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.0000 % 50.00% 25.00% { A2s+, A5o+ }
Hand 2: 25.0000 % 00.00% 25.00% { As9c }

He certainly could have other hands that beat us, but are there really enough to make this a fold? Keep in mind that a lot of low made flushes bet the turn and most sets raise flop/bet turn.

I think folding the river is fine. I also think that a more interesting question is what to do on the flop. Do I understand correctly that you figure someone had to have the flush draw on the flop so you would fold to a good sized bet on the turn?

I understand with 5 opponents on the flop you fear the flush draw but mathematically speaking it's still far more likely that the flush draw is NOT out there (correct me if I'm wrong) which indicates pushing the turn. Sure you'll be be facing a flush sometimes but I believe you will also be ahead much of the time when called and you will take it down uncontested lots too which is fine also. There's over 600 in the pot and you have about 800 chips left at that moment, the risk reward looks real good to me here. If the pot were significantly smaller or your stack bigger then it would be a much tougher spot but the way things are pushing looks clear to me. One thing for sure you do not want to give a free card here because if you still have chips when the river rolls around you could be in a very tough spot.

I also disagree that the pot is too big to bet, just the opposite, it's too big not to push.

[Sciolist]

It could also be that a heart acting last will go ahead and bet too. I think I'd be looking for a c-r here, if it's checked and the turn comes a heart, so be it, I'm not going to be investing more. You can probably C-R all-in and take a decent pot on the flop?

[Kristian]

I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

[ QUOTE ]
I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, the fact that 2 callers on the flop makes it more likely that the flush is out there but I'm not sure that it's all that much more. I mean with 6 to the flop you will get called in at least one place right? 2 callers wouldn't be out of the question even if there was no flush draw out there either.

Do let us know if you get a response from the probability forum, I'm sure curious. I've been thinking about this one a fair bit and waffled myself before posting but I still like pushing though I can't say I'm sure. If the mathematical chances of a flush draw being present are higher than I suspect then that would change things. Wish I was better at math.

[Deuce2High]

I would go for a check-raise on this flop every time. The flush isn't really ever going to slow me down here, I don't think.

[bigt439]

Alright, thoughts so far:

- When I'm ahead, I'm usually way less ahead than when my opponents are ahead of me. I have 4 outs against a flush, set, or better two pair. Something like AT has 3 outs to win, 3 outs to chop, and if he has a heart (good chance of the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif because 2 other are out), 9 outs to win.

- Saying you'd like to check-raise this flop is all fine and dandy given how this hand played out, but I feel like it misses a lot of value against a probable A. If the turn is not a /images/graemlins/heart.gif I push and get called lots. There's also a strong chance a better A would raise the flop. Check-raise does have its advanatges I just don't know if they outweigh those of extracting value with a bet. Maybe they do.

- Alright, this getting into the probability thing of people being on hearts is getting a little off track. This isn't really a probability question as much as it is a read based on their flop action. Now probability comes into it, but you can't just say what's the chance they're on hearts because I think it's significantly higher than any mathematical answer given the action. In all posts advocating I continue on with this hand I would like people to put the BB and MP2 on a hand or at least a range of hands. How many of those do I beat on the turn? Do we want to put each player on the case A's (possible, but anytime we're dealing with case cards its unlikely), do we think they're weak enough to call with a 9 here (I say people are junk all the time, but that would be a reaaaally junk play), did someone not raise a worse two pair (again, possible, but given the flush and people loving to get cash in I don't know). Now think about how much easier it is to put at least one of them on hearts. Limped in with some suited connectors OR a suited A (it's huge that the A is the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) and cold called my flop bet (now consider that 5 other people saw this flop so it's even more likely these hands were limped and from my experience a flush draw is going nowhere to that flop bet, especially in MP2's spot). Checked through the turn to get cheeky (although I agree they would usually bet), but by the river it doesn't much matter. What do I beat at the river? Absolutely nothing but a stone cold bluff. If I'm chopping, I'm putting in 200 to win 415. I don't like those odds or how my chip stack will look if I lose.

Anyways, I just feel like it's easy to say, well they're probably not on hearts, your hand is sweet, pot is big, ship it. But if they're not on hearts, what are they on? This hand is obviously way different heads up, but it's two way, and they're both cold callers on a flop where made hands would want to protect. Good analysis so far, keep her coming. I'd love to see someone directly rebut my points.

[microbet]

I might go with 150 on the flop, but sometimes I think about reverse-implied odds and to more like 225-250.

This being a Party sng it's quite possible that one of your opponents has some ace and the other has some non ace crap hand in which case folding or giving a free card is sick. Don't get me wrong, I hear what you're saying but still, the way this hand played out doesn't hindsight tell you that there's a good chance that the flush was not there and you were ahead on the turn and doesn't that make you want to reconsider how confident you should be here that the flush is out there?

You think it's easy to say they're probably on hearts but isn't it just as easy to say, well someone has hearts so check-fold the turn? Off the top of my pointy little head, say you push the turn, 25% of the time you take it down, 25% of the time you are called and are ahead and 50% of the time you are against a flush, that still works out pretty well compared to folding.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
- Saying you'd like to check-raise this flop is all fine and dandy given how this hand played out, but I feel like it misses a lot of value against a probable A. If the turn is not a /images/graemlins/heart.gif I push and get called lots. There's also a strong chance a better A would raise the flop. Check-raise does have its advanatges I just don't know if they outweigh those of extracting value with a bet. Maybe they do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not c/r this flop all-in? Most hands that would call your lead flop push turn line would call the flop check/push. The only hand that would call you that'd make you a dog is a set.

[Kristian]

The prob forum came through and crunched some numbers. Assuming the hands of the other 5 players are randomly distributed, there is a 21,9% chance we are up against at least one flush draw on the flop.

Does this change anyones opinion, or is it pretty much as expected?

[ QUOTE ]
The prob forum came through and crunched some numbers. Assuming the hands of the other 5 players are randomly distributed, there is a 21,9% chance we are up against at least one flush draw on the flop.

Does this change anyones opinion, or is it pretty much as expected?

[/ QUOTE ]

They're really far from randomly distributed and the heart on the turn changes this greatly.

You're almost always way better off playing against the hands your opponents are representing than random hands.