Party 10+1 Bubble Question

(my first post so please be gentle)

Party 10+1 SNG 3 places paid 4 players remaining

Hero ~1200t
Button ~2300t
SB ~1300t
BB ~3200t

Button has been loose and active both before and after flop; SB is weak-tight; BB is solid. Blinds are 50/100.

Hero picks up QQ and bets 200.
Button pushed all in.
SB folds.
BB pushed.

Hero pushed. But afterward, I got to wondering if going all in was good tactics but bad strategy. I'm not sure of the math, but it looks like if they both have underpairs (best case), there's about a 30% chance that one of them will make a set when I do not. If one has AK and the other an underpair, my chances are worse.

What do you think - should I fold and try to make the money or take my chances with what is probably the best hand?

[Sciolist]

Take your chances - the money comes from finishing first, not passing QQ on the bubble.

I also think that a min raise is a bad idea. I am going to be making this something like 3x. The BB has a lot of chips and he's going to be calling with a lot of hands - at least, I would be if I were him. You'd have no idea where you were.

I agree QQ is probably ahead here. My question is whether to shoot for the moon, with a 30% or so chance of getting nothing, or to try to guarantee a spot in the black.

Yeah, push, without a thought.
Shooby

[Hendricks433]

did you raise to 200 total or 300 total first?

First to act, I made it 2x the BB.

[Shillx]

Yikes. Fold just about everything here when the 2 big stacks move in. I'll run an ICM but I would fold KK here for sure.

You will have roughly 23% equity if you fold here. This assumes that the other 2 are in a coin-flip.

Assume that you have AA and they will win 70% of the time. You have 36% equity if you win the hand. You have 0% if you bust. Therefore your total equity here if you call with AA (and they win 70%) is 25.4%. You need to win about 64% of the time to call here.

Aces figure to win about 70% against 2 opponents so that is one hand that you can call with. Kings don't win anywhere close to 70% of the time (maybe 60-63%) against 2 others and thus it is a fold here. QQ is a turbo muck.

Brad

[patrick dicaprio]

i think you are giving them way too much credit. i wouldnt be surprised to see a total bluff called by Ax in these situations. you have the best hand are getting way too good odds and you lose there is another game starting in ten seconds. as I see it you have to bet 1000 to win about 2600. pretty damn good odds for having the best hand.

Pat

[patrick dicaprio]

you want to win not get your $10 back. you wont have a better chance to win for the rest of the game most likely.

in these situations at this level you cant assume guys are playing strong hands like AK or KK or AA. there are just too many hands that can be played this way. now i know that given the stack sizes total junk is not likely since they both have survivable stacks, so i can see concern, but i think you still have to play.

Pat

[aaronk56]

I think I would've called the all-in here to not realizing how bad of a move it is. I assumed a top 20% hand for the initial push and a top 5% hand for the caller and its very -EV

Thanks Brad. This is kind of what I was feeling when I thought about it at length. Nice to have some hard numbers from someone with more experience.