View Full Version : Obvious call with the 2nd nuts?
blackaces13
12-08-2005, 07:39 PM
Party .5/1
BB is a conservative ABC player.
Hero is in the SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
PREFLOP: 2 folds , MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 4 folds , Hero completes, BB checks.
FLOP: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players, 4 SBs)
<font color="red"> Hero bets </font> , <font color="red"> BB raises </font> , MP1 calls, MP2 folds.
TURN: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 4.5 BBs)
Hero checks, <font color="red"> BB bets </font> , MP1 calls, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font> , BB calls, MP1 calls.
RIVER: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 10.5 BBs)
<font color="red"> Hero bets, BB raises </font> , MP1 folds, Hero...
Based on the play of the hand I think there's a good chance he's playing A-little, I'd be concerned about the Ad when that 4th diamond hits on the river. I would slow down and c/c.
blackaces13
12-08-2005, 07:52 PM
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Based on the play of the hand I think there's a good chance he's playing A-little, I'd be concerned about the Ad when that 4th diamond hits on the river. I would slow down and c/c.
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I don't think he's going to bet many hands that I beat, but he will probably call with them.
The problem, which I ran into, is that it is extremely difficult to go bet/fold on this river. So when I'm behind I lose 2, and when I'm ahead I gain 1 or zero by betting.
jaxUp
12-08-2005, 07:57 PM
not bet/calling this river will give you cancer. It's science.
Buck_65
12-08-2005, 07:59 PM
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not bet/calling this river will give you cancer. It's science.
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Listen to the man.
istewart
12-08-2005, 08:00 PM
Looks like a fold to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif
he's playing like he has the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but yes we have to call. I might be check/calling. I would probably take some time on the decision. We are not folding, no way.
Also, it's not the second nuts. There is a straight flush possibility, but I suspect he'd be more aggro on the turn with a made flush.
milesdyson
12-08-2005, 08:02 PM
calling is probably -EV. AQ is a preflop raise for even many "conservative" players, so most likely he has the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. it is very doubtful he raises the river with the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif anyway, and there's no way he's raising the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and he can't have the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
yeah i'm gonna say this is a -EV call but i pay the man.
jaxUp
12-08-2005, 08:03 PM
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Looks like a fold to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif
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I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough.
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I don't think he's going to bet many hands that I beat, but he will probably call with them.
The problem, which I ran into, is that it is extremely difficult to go bet/fold on this river.
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Not being able to bet/fold is one of my leaks. But on this river, I think that the probability that he has the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is pretty high. Unless you have a read that this guy is a maniac or a dufus, I think you can find a fold after his raise. Do you really think he's raising with something like the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif? I'd probably check/call this river.
milesdyson
12-08-2005, 08:05 PM
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Looks like a fold to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif
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I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough.
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only AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif fits, and he didn't raise preflop. plus we just yelled LOUDLY on the turn that we have a flush, and his would be the 3rd nuts.
this can't be a +EV call (i make it, though).
istewart
12-08-2005, 08:06 PM
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Looks like a fold to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif
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I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough.
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Yeah but what's his other card then?
jaxUp
12-08-2005, 08:11 PM
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Looks like a fold to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif
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I think he's over-excited about a Q 1/13 here. Didn't sound like read was too thorough.
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Yeah but what's his other card then?
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A or J of non-diamonds? I could be wrong, but I have a really hard time folding here.
blackaces13
12-08-2005, 08:38 PM
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calling is probably -EV. AQ is a preflop raise for even many "conservative" players, so most likely he has the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. it is very doubtful he raises the river with the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif anyway, and there's no way he's raising the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and he can't have the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
yeah i'm gonna say this is a -EV call but i pay the man.
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That's about exactly what went through my head after he raised the river. I was about 98% sure he had the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I really wanted to fold. Then as I saw the clock ticking ever closer to 0 I told myself, "I'm just not good enough to make this laydown right now, even though I KNOW he has me beat".
I called, he showed A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif and I was once again reminded why I still choose to play Party .5/1.
milesdyson
12-08-2005, 08:45 PM
wait how did this remind you of why you choose to play at party?
istewart
12-08-2005, 08:49 PM
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wait how did this remind you of why you choose to play at party?
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Yeah, really.
blackaces13
12-08-2005, 09:02 PM
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wait how did this remind you of why you choose to play at party?
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That was just my way of saying that I'm not confident enough to play againt better players and for higher stakes on a regular basis. Wasn't meant to be taken literally.
milesdyson
12-08-2005, 09:18 PM
k, it was either that or saying the guy was donking around (but he played well).
but yeah i feel the same way sometimes.
Eeegah
12-08-2005, 09:55 PM
Can I turn this around a bit? Okay, I'm detecting a leak of my own here. If I were BB I'd almost certainly raise with the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the river and call a 3-bet. If it were UTG or something I'd be much more cautious, but SB could have any two suited--am I wrong in thinking he won't have an A or K half the time? (statistically speaking he'd have a lower flush about 55% of the time if he had two random diamonds and I had one)
Edit: Getting out of my chair somehow answered my question for me--we're losing 2 bets if I'm wrong and gaining one if I'm right. Whoops--I need to do more examination of game theory like that.)
blackaces13
12-08-2005, 10:05 PM
The thing is the only hand he can have with a Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in it is AQ and he should raise that preflop. Just the chance that he would raise it preflop makes an already unlikely holding even less likely. The flop raise indicates Ace, the river raise indicates it was a diamond.
Eeegah
12-08-2005, 10:10 PM
Sorry, I meant more of a general question. Say we were BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif and had called down. I raise this river and am now thinking that'd be a leak of mine.
Being a nit: you have the third nuts.
63d or 68d makes a straight flush
Ad ace high flush
Kd (you) king high flush.
ajm36
12-08-2005, 11:28 PM
This is an EASY call. After BB raises the river, there are 13.5 BBs in the pot. You are DEFINITELY good 1 out of 13 times here. Incidentally, if I am BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJx, I play it exactly the same way.
Songwind
12-09-2005, 02:11 AM
I agree. I think this falls under the NPA's rant about folding the river in large pots for a single bet unless you're 90%+ sure that you're beaten.
milesdyson
12-09-2005, 03:45 AM
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This is an EASY call. After BB raises the river, there are 13.5 BBs in the pot. You are DEFINITELY good 1 out of 13 times here. Incidentally, if I am BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJx, I play it exactly the same way.
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is that right? well how about this? there are three combos of Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ. there are also 3 combos of Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA. these are the only two hands he can have that we beat, and there are SIX of them. AQ should be severely discounted for the lack of the preflop raise, and QJ should be discounted for the flop/turn/river aggression. compare this # to the countless A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifX hands he can have here, all of which fit much much better with his play in this hand. here, i'll do it for you.
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 - 3 (A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif makes a turn flush)
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT - 3
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ - 3
AQ and AK should have been raised preflop. this is a total of 30 hands, all which make perfect sense given his play. discount AQ/QJ to 2 of 6 combos because they do not fit well and this is not a call.
it's an easy call to make without thinking, yeah, and i would make it too. but it's a fold.
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