T8s gets there

[Buck_65]

Villain is 17.4/12.4/2.9 over 600 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

I was going to check/raise the flop if CO called. If I bet it, MP1 raises like 99% of the time here which I don't especially want (flop AF = 4.0, he slows down on bigger streets).

I typically bet this turn, but just happened to C/R this one due to game conditions. That is the street I'm least concerned with.

Any thoughts?

I would've lead the river and called a raise

[imported_smoove]

How many hands are you legitimately afraid of here? AA, AJ, JJ? To him, the turn wouldn't be that straight scary, so maybe he'd go nutty with AK or AQ (he's pretty aggressive). I dunno...maybe I'd take a stab at betting the river.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
I would've lead the river and called a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely one of the more interesting decisions in the hand. He definitely value bets AK/AQ if I check, and he's not raising them if I bet. Betting out on the river only seems strong when he's got something like KhJh, which he's not playing like this on the turn anyway.

I would bet the river for value. most of the time you will win. Are you afraid of a full house?

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river for value. most of the time you will win. Are you afraid of a full house?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes you need to determine what a bet accomplishes for you. Hand reading will tell you this guy has a hand worth betting if checked to, almost guaranteed.

Sure, I'm ahead of his overall hand range, but there will be 1 bet going in regardless of who bets for many of his possible holdings. So now a bet only looks appealing if villain has a hand worth calling 1 bet with but not worth betting himself if checked to. Can you think of some hands in this category that are in villain's range considering his aggressive play, especially on the turn? This isn't some typical party monkey I'm up against, he plays good poker.

I will, however, be raised on this river when he did just fill up or make quads. In the grand scheme of things, it's probably close between betting and checking. Maybe I'm overanalyzing things, but this seems to be worth exploring.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes you need to determine what a bet accomplishes for you. Hand reading will tell you this guy has a hand worth betting if checked to, almost guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure I follow. If you think that checking to him will cause him to bet a worse hand shouldn't you then check raise?

Maybe I am over simplifying . . . but If I ever have over 50% pot equity heads up . . . I will value bet or check raise (assuming there is a strong chance villian will bet). The question then becomes: Do we have over 50% pot equity?

He could easily be playing AKo, AQo, KQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, KJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[KDawgCometh]

meh, I think you should CR the flop regardless. you have a pretty big draw right now, and putting in a few more bets here is still a solid play

I think that you can sexy the river, though, he does go pretty nuts on the turn, so the board pairing sucks, and if we sexy the river and get three bet, we have to call, but are gonna hate the call everytime. Yeah, I think the river call is fine to be honest

[GMan42]

I also like a bet-call on the river. I think you just can't take the chance he'll wimp out and check behind (possibly expecting a check-raise from you)...you did say he slows down on later streets, after all.

[Entity]

Am I the only one who thinks bet-calling this river would be pretty bad? Since there's quite a reasonable chance if he's retardedly aggressive on the turn that he'll bet that hand ofr value, a check-call is ok, but I really think bet-calling the river is pretty bad.

Rob

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks bet-calling this river would be pretty bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. He'll bet for us.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks bet-calling this river would be pretty bad? Since there's quite a reasonable chance if he's retardedly aggressive on the turn that he'll bet that hand ofr value, a check-call is ok, but I really think bet-calling the river is pretty bad.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Rob.

This reminds me of one of Shillx's game theory (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=4122208&amp;Sear chpage=1&amp;Main=4120854&amp;Words=%26quot%3Bgame+theory% 26quot%3B+Shillx&amp;topic=&amp;Search=true#Post4122208) situations. He's advocated in micros many times that if you both like your hands and you can't 3bet the river, don't bet it.
For those who don't want to click on the link, the short story is if we check, Villain will bet any hand, winning or losing. If we bet, Villain will raise winning hands or call losing ones. So betting guarantees Villain an extra BB when we're behind and nothing when we're ahead.

It's not perfect since Villain may spook and check behind with a worse hand here, afraid of the board pairing or putting Hero on a sexy, but I don't think he does very often. IMO he checks behind seldom enough for us to c/c here.

[Buck_65]

Villain had AA and MHING FWIW

[djhoneybear]

I haven't looked at the other responses so excuse me if this is redundant but I would fold preflop. Raising the flop makes sense if you are in late position but do you really want to take the lead betting your draw on the big streets? What will check-raising the flop do? The turn play looks good to me but I would bet out with an aggressive player. River seems fine.

[TheHip41]

Bet call the river.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's already been explained a few times why bet-calling the river is particularly bad here.

Rob

[gopnik]

I like it. AJ, AA, 99 all possible after turn action.

Thank you for that link! Very good post