Sanity Check

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

NLHE satellite to the PokerStars $200 Tourney. Early in the tournament. Blinds 10/20. I have about 1660, no real big stacks at the table.

I'm in MP with A /forums/images/icons/club.gif A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I open raise to 60. C/O calls (he has me covered).

Flop: T /forums/images/icons/club.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I bet 150, he calls.

Turn: K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I'm getting a bad feeling here. I bet 300, he calls.

River: 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

What's my play?

[Rickfish]

I don't know how loose this player is. My first reaction is that he might only have a Queen when he calls on the flop but he may have AQ. He smooth called when a second King appeared - what would you smooth call with? If he had AQ he would be probably be raising now in case you have AK. So let's discount AQ. Same goes of Q9 in the unlikely case that he'd call pre-flop. He could have KQ, KJ, KT, QQ, QJ, QT, JJ, JT, TT, 98 but he might have folded QQ, JT and 98 by now. It looks a bit grim unless he is a loose player who has to see the river on a drawing hand.

I would check the river and see what happens. He will either check and show with a hand he is not sure about, bluff with a missed draw, or bet for value with a big hand. You might get information from the size of the bet which gives you a clue.

[Magician]

I would check and see what he does. If he bets then you have another decision to make.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I check the river, he goes all-in. I stew over it and use up a bit of my extra time before folding, giving him credit for a K.

I manage to struggle back to a reasonable amount of chips, but go card dead midway between the first and second break. Survive long enough to have to gamble to make the cut (26 spots get the buy-in). Double up once, win the blinds once, but I know I still have to gamble to make the cut when I get A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif in the BB. SB completes. We see the flop, 3 spades 8 high. He bets, I raise all-in. He calls and has T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . No A, no /forums/images/icons/spade.gif , I'm out at #34.

[Magician]

Two ideas:

a) Raise more before the flop? With the blinds that low maybe a raise of 80 or 100 would have been better? When called you get more "value" out of those Aces.

b) When the K hit on the turn, how about a check? Or betting the same absolute amount as on the flop?

Is b) a losing play long-term (overpair, but the board just paired on the turn with a card opponent easily could have)?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

a) I wouldn't bet 5x the BB preflop. That's too big to be my normal preflop raise, and if you've read my prior posts you know I'm a believer in using a standard size raise regardless of the hand I have. I used to use 4x in the past, but have seen little change when I went down to 3x. I'm toying with the idea of 4x in the first 3 levels, then dropping to 3x after that.

b) If I check and he bets the pot or more, I'd probably just fold there. As for the size of the turn bet, 150 would have given a draw correct odds to call. 2/3 the pot, which is what I bet, is about the smallest amount I like to bet in NL.

c) I raised preflop. My opponent called a pot-size bet on the flop with 3 cards in the playing zone, a possible made str8 and no flush draw. I think the most losing play there is feeling entitled to win with AA.