inducing bluffs? 2/4 HU

[soah]

Different opponent than the other hand posted.

I played a while full ring with this guy and he was a goldmine. I raised in EP once with QQ and he called (along with someone else) from the BB with QTo. Flop was ten-high and he minbet, and I raised it up because there were quite a few draws out there. He called my raise, and then check-called a pretty healthy turn bet as well. The game broke up and we ended up playing HU. He was pretty bad. He was folding too much and just bleeding chips to me, but then he started to adjust a bit and put some pressure back on me. A third player (maybe the guy from my other thread) had sat down briefly but he went bust after 15 hands or so. I think that has sort of added to his aggressiveness, because initially I was also just limping in a lot preflop and stealing pots postflop, but this third player was playing more aggressively and we started following suit. So I guess now he's playing DAG (donk aggressive).

So we get dealt cards and I have AKo and raise to $12. I have been raising preflop frequently, but only with somewhat playable hands (not just any two cards). He uses his slider to make some weird reraise like $28.50 or something. This is the second time he's reraised me preflop. The other time I folded. This time I call. Flop is KTx rainbow. I check and he checks. (I'm not sure why I'm acting first both preflop and postflop. It's possible this was the first hand after the third player busted, which could result in the blinds behaving in full ring mode instead of HU mode. It's also possible that he limp-reraised preflop and I'm simply remembering it wrong. I think his limp-reraise range is the same as his normal-reraise range anyway though.) The turn is an ace. It puts two hearts on the board. I bet $15 and he raises to $40. I call. River is an offsuit rag. I check, he bets $75.

Suppose his stack after that river bet is X. What values of X would make it appropriate for me to checkraise, and what values of X would make a call more appropriate (if any).

This turn bet was the first time that he'd seen me bet anything other than 60-90% of the pot. This may have been the only time that he had checked the flop after showing preflop aggression but I'm not sure.

[swolfe]

c/r $225 or less, call otherwise

[ahnuld]

I really dislike the wayyou played most of this hand. I 3 bet preflop, lead flop, bet more on turn, 3 bet on turn, lead river, cr river. Im looking to play a big pot here, its HU, I have a pretty good holding on flop, an extremly good holding on turn. I also pump turn becuase I hate to see a Q or J show up.

Given the situation you are in, I raise allin and hope 2 pair calls me. But I would have reraised preflop so QJ would not have been in the hand.

[Leptyne]

I can't think of a stack size that would induce me to flat call. I make a pot sized c/r of $225 to make it $300 to play.

[soah]

What sort of hand could he call with that I beat considering the action? I'd expect him to bet a flopped pair so there are no real two pair possibilities

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
So I guess now he's playing DAG (donk aggressive).

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant.

Anyway I really think you should bet this flop, it just makes the river play so much easier, I think if he has $250 or more I just call.

[Leptyne]

[ QUOTE ]
What sort of hand could he call with that I beat considering the action? I'd expect him to bet a flopped pair so there are no real two pair possibilities

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll withdraw my earlier reply. In the cold light of dawn I've written this problem down so I can better visualize whats happening. I don't play HU and have no business commenting anyway.

My limited knowledge is gained from 2+2 so I doubt there's anything I can add that you haven't already read.

What I've learned is that it is extremely player dependent and if you play long enough with an opponent you can get inside his head.

Beal, from Dallas, gets a lot of press re: his desire to play a $20M pot, and how it all went. Of course Beal is not a great player, but a great numbers guy. His strategy was to wear headphones so he couldn't hear his opponent and to use a random number generator. Fascinating.

As I study and learn I am not a big fan of the phrase " only a better hand will call (or raise) and a worse hand will fold". The objective against better (or weaker) players is to deceive them and get them to make a mistake. My 2+2 readings say that Ax is a raising hand so a random 2 pr is not out of the question with the flop check.

A really delicious spot where both players can represent the QJ. I think your hand is well disguised and feel you're good here enough times to back this play with your stack. Of course worse hands call. You see it routinely.

[soah]

When he checked on the flop I really felt like he had nothing at all. On the turn I bet weak to hopefully induce a bluff raise, because I felt like he was bad enough to fall for it. Since my read was that he had nothing, I simply called his raise and hoped for a river bluff.

As soon as I did it, I realized I'd picked a bad board to try it on since there are eight huge scare cards that could hit on the river (putting four broadway cards out). But alas, it was too late to go back. On the river I still felt like he was on a bluff and insta-called before actually taking the time to think. He only had about $70 left after his bet. If I'd realized that, I would have just pushed and hoped he had an ace or something. If he'd been deeper then I think raising is a lot more dubious since the two main possibilities here are that he either is bluffing or flopped a set and tried to slowplay.

As it turns out, my analysis of his hand was correct, yet I still may have misplayed. He had J2 of hearts for the turned monster draw which missed on the river. Pushing over top of his turn raise would have been roughly a pot sized raise. It certainly would protect my hand, but it would also prevent him from bluffing the river.

For simplicity we'll assume that he had exactly one pot sized bet left in his stack after the turn raise, and if I don't push, he will bet half pot on any river. I don't remember if I held any hearts or if the ace or king on board was a heart, so we'll assume one heart was dead. That leaves 8 flush outs and 3 gutshot outs and 44 cards left in the deck. He is exactly 25% to hit on the river. If he will call the turn push more than 50% of the time, then pushing the turn is my best EV. If he will correctly fold to my turn push more than 50% of the time, then calling and letting him bluff the river is my best option. I have no idea if he would have called a turn push.