A turn and river dilemma (possibly boring)

[jaxUp]

So, I was playing Party 5/10 6max last night and this hand came up. I was 3-tabling while trying to get rid of a virus on my computer, so I wasn't paying that much attention, but I have almost 200 hands on this guy so I have some pretty decent reads.

He will SnG pairs (ex, K5 on T52 board), but not every time. He is not likely to 3bet 2-pair. He likes to donk many turns and rivers HU, but unlikely to donk on a coordinated board without something good. His PFR is 13, but he's not raising the top 13% of his hands. His PFR's seem to be rather sporadic and don't mean a whole lot (similarly, he limps some fairly strong hands). I have seen him bet with only a draw once or twice, but he doesn't do it often. He plays too many hands and needs to be value bet. He is capable of folding, but doesn't like to do it often. His stats (for those of you that are into that kind of thing ) are 47/13/1.3-ish. AF may be a little off as I'm just going by memory.

5/10 6-max (6-handed)on Party.

folded to SB who completes and I raise A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in BB.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets, I raise, SB calls.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB bets, I??

[benkath1]

I raise/call.

How often does he steal? OL in sb makes you suspicious of a sneaky player.

HU a flush is possible, but I want a little more proof. I think he caught a piece of that board and thought his hand was good.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I was playing Party 5/10 6max last night and this hand came up. I was 3-tabling while trying to get rid of a virus on my computer, so I wasn't paying that much attention, but I have almost 200 hands on this guy so I have some pretty decent reads.

He will SnG pairs (ex, K5 on T52 board), but not every time. He is not likely to 3bet 2-pair. He likes to donk many turns and rivers HU, but unlikely to donk on a coordinated board without something good. His PFR is 13, but he's not raising the top 13% of his hands. His PFR's seem to be rather sporadic and don't mean a whole lot (similarly, he limps some fairly strong hands). I have seen him bet with only a draw once or twice, but he doesn't do it often. He plays too many hands and needs to be value bet. He is capable of folding, but doesn't like to do it often. His stats (for those of you that are into that kind of thing ) are 47/13/1.3-ish. AF may be a little off as I'm just going by memory.

5/10 6-max (6-handed)on Party.

folded to SB who completes and I raise A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in BB.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets, I raise, SB calls.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB bets, I??

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I call down here. It's possible he just has a pair, maybe a pair + flush draw. You could be dead to the flush, obviously, but I think his most likely holding is an A for the tie. Maybe even A + flush draw for a freeroll. You don't want to feed the rake if you're tied, but I think there's a good enough chance you're ahead that you can call down here.

[jaxUp]

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How often does he steal? OL in sb makes you suspicious of a sneaky player.


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The open-limp was a product of retardation and not trickiness. I don't think he has a very good handle on the SH game. He does not attempt to steal any more often than he'd normally raise and is not likely positionally aware.

[sean c]

Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

[jaxUp]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[sean c]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

[jaxUp]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

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Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

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I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

[benkath1]

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How often does he steal? OL in sb makes you suspicious of a sneaky player.


[/ QUOTE ]

The open-limp was a product of retardation and not trickiness. I don't think he has a very good handle on the SH game. He does not attempt to steal any more often than he'd normally raise and is not likely positionally aware.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the type of player you are describing, I stick with my raise/call. I think it is profitable in the long run.

PS nice avatar. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sean c]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

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I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong on the raise or calling the 3-bet?

[jaxUp]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

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Wrong on the raise or calling the 3-bet?

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Ok, well this didn't generate as much discussion as I'd hoped, but oh well. I think that the proper play is to call the turn and raise the (non-spade/pairing) river.

I'm going to assume that we are either raising the turn or raising the river. Calling down here is wrong IMO.

If he has Ax with no spade, then it doesn't matter what line we take...3 or 4 bets are going in regardless (4 if he decides to 3bet, 3 if he calls the raise)

If he has Ax with a spade, then by making sure there is a non-spade river we save a bet.

If he has 2 pair, we get 3 bets out of him whether we raise now or on the river, so by waiting to see if the board pairs we only put in 2 bets when we would get sucked out on.

If he has 9x with a spade, we still get the same number of bets when ahead, and put in less when behind.

There are probably more scenarios, but basically what it bois down to is that when we are ahead/tied we have the chance to make the same number of bets regardless of when we raise, but by waiting for the river, we only put in the 3rd bet when one of his outs does not come in. I am open to this being wrong, so please argue.

[sean c]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

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I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

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Wrong on the raise or calling the 3-bet?

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Ok, well this didn't generate as much discussion as I'd hoped, but oh well. I think that the proper play is to call the turn and raise the (non-spade/pairing) river.

I'm going to assume that we are either raising the turn or raising the river. Calling down here is wrong IMO.

If he has Ax with no spade, then it doesn't matter what line we take...3 or 4 bets are going in regardless (4 if he decides to 3bet, 3 if he calls the raise)

If he has Ax with a spade, then by making sure there is a non-spade river we save a bet.

If he has 2 pair, we get 3 bets out of him whether we raise now or on the river, so by waiting to see if the board pairs we only put in 2 bets when we would get sucked out on.

If he has 9x with a spade, we still get the same number of bets when ahead, and put in less when behind.

There are probably more scenarios, but basically what it bois down to is that when we are ahead/tied we have the chance to make the same number of bets regardless of when we raise, but by waiting for the river, we only put in the 3rd bet when one of his outs does not come in. I am open to this being wrong, so please argue.

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Of course your assuming he bets the river also with his 2 pair/9 and only 3-bets you with at least an ace.

[jaxUp]

Yes, this opponent will always lead the river if I call, and will donk a spade, not allowing me to check behind. Also, I included in OP that he would not likely 3bet 2 pair, so I don't think he's ever 3-betting less than a straight here.

[sean c]

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Yes, this opponent will always lead the river if I call

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If this is the case then calling and waiting is probably better. I just have a hard time getting my arms around not raising being correct when i have the nuts but i see what you are getting at. At any point and time more than 3 bets go in on the turn/river you are at best chopping.

[jaxUp]

[quote At any point and time more than 3 bets go in on the turn/river you are at best chopping.

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Yeah, but I have to call because of the likelihood of an A.

[bozlax]

Haven't read anything beyond the OP, and I barely got through that.

Based on your read (especially this part: "I have seen him bet with only a draw once or twice, but he doesn't do it often.") I don't think Villan hit a flush, here. He may be freerolling you with the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, but it's unlikely. So, at worst you're splitting.

Raising the turn doesn't gain you anything. A 3-bet could mean what you already know, a call could as well. And, if he's playing two-pair or an unlikely set, you don't want to take away his initiative. Either way, he's going to see the river, and "chargining him to draw" doesn't work, as he's probably getting half of his own money, anyway. So, just call the turn. On the river:

If it's a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, call or check behind.
If it pairs the board, call or check behind.
Anything else, raise/call or bet/call.

[bozlax]

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I just have a hard time getting my arms around not raising being correct when i have the nuts...

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Hero doesn't have the nuts. There are 45 hand combinations that beat him on the turn.

[jaxUp]

Yeah, good analysis boz. I thought the same thing. The only thing I don't agree with is:

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If it pairs the board, check behind.


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This guy is too dumb to c/r. I have never seen him c/r and he has had some good hands. he always leads with them. If he checks to me I am betting for value.

[Redd]

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unlikely to donk on a coordinated board without something good

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This is the crux of the matter IMO. What worse hand can you expect him to have here? He's got to be pretty dumb to donk anything less than a straight. I call/call.

[Greg J]

I really like the idea of calling this turn, and raising/calling or betting/calling a friendly river card (non spade that does not pair the board). Otherwise I still call down no matter what comes.

[jaxUp]

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unlikely to donk on a coordinated board without something good

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This is the crux of the matter IMO. What worse hand can you expect him to have here? He's got to be pretty dumb to donk anything less than a straight. I call/call.

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sorry, I should have been more specific...I meant something good as in TP+. He would donk a 9 or 2 pair here every time.

[jaxUp]

Anyways, Here's the results.

5/10 6-max (6-handed)on Party.

folded to SB who completes and I raise A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in BB.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets, I raise, SB calls.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB bets, I call.

River: T /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets, I call

Villain turns Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHING

[Pedigree]

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MHING

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What does this stand for?

[jaxUp]

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MHING

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What does this stand for?

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My hand is no good

[bozlax]

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Yeah, good analysis boz. I thought the same thing. The only thing I don't agree with is:

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If it pairs the board, check behind.


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This guy is too dumb to c/r. I have never seen him c/r and he has had some good hands. he always leads with them. If he checks to me I am betting for value.

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Makes sense.

[Pedigree]

Cool, thanks.

[Shillx]

Ok I set up a reasonable range, TT-99, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 92s+, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 92o+, that you have 68.7% equity against. This is 339 combos.

There are also 28 more possible flush combos that we have to include. So your total equity figures to be about 63-64% in this spot.

With this it looks to be close between just calling and raising the river or raising now. I dunno but this hand is tough dude. I don't know what I'd do at the table, but I would try to find a raise somewhere in here. Good post.