Playing the double-paired board on the river

[rharless]

$2-$4 online, 4-handed. I am very short on short-handed experience. The other players seem "bad" to me but I could just be interpreting plays as bad which are actually good, short-handed.

I am dealt 3s 3d in the big blind.

UTG raises, Button cold calls, SB folds, I call. I'm thinking that "flops I want to see" can be defined as mostly anything without an A or K. Correct?

Flop: 7h 7c Qd

I check, UTG checks, Button bets, I raise, UTG folds, Button calls.

I checked waiting to see how action develops. Then I raised to test the button and get PFR out. Right now I think my two pair is good.

Turn: [7h 7c Qd] Ts

Non-threatening card. I bet and button calls. I plan to bet a non-A/K river.

River: [7h 7c Qd Ts] Qh

Uh oh, didn't consider this river in my plans. Now I play the board.

Your action? What sayeth the forum wisdom?

[Uston]

Easy. You're putting him on a couple of big unpaired cards so you should bet. Your opponent would have a moderately tough call with a naked ace and an almost impossible call with a king.

[Bob T.]

You are probably going to lose. But, I would make the desparation last bet, if you win 15% of the time, you break even, and you will probably get extra calls in the future if you are called here.

[Robk]

>You're putting him on a couple of big unpaired cards so >you should bet.

He could also be playing the board with a PP, and your bet will get you half the pot in those cases, or the whole thing if you would have been bluffed out.

[Ulysses]

UTG raises, Button cold calls, SB folds, I call. I'm thinking that "flops I want to see" can be defined as mostly anything without an A or K. Correct?

I'd define it as a flop with a 3 in it. After a raiser and cold-caller, you could be looking at AK, two big cards, two suited cards, a pocket pair or two. Basically, a lot of different flops might hit one of these guys.

When you miss, check, and button bets, a raise is OK, but a fold is just fine as well. I'd usually just bet this flop, though, and go from there. The problem w/ your checkraise is that if button has anything at all, he's probably going to call you down or make a play short-handed.

Anyway, to your question - bet the river and fold to a raise. You'll probably be called and lose, but you'll get a better hand to fold enough times to make the bet worth it.

[Uston]

Not to split hairs, but if his opponent has 22-66, his bet will get him the entire pot. No one who is playing a QQ77T board can possibly call a river bet.

[Robk]

Sorry that was confusing on my part. I meant if he checks and his opponent checks behind he will only be getting half the pot, whereas if he bets he will be getting the whole thing. That's what I meant by him getting half the pot by betting- the other half /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[bernie]

are they betting lots of draws and semi bluffing? if not, some players are very readable in shorthanded. theyll play it like a full game. meaning timidly. so if these players are that type, you can maybe fold to the flop bet. your c/r will also slow a Q down here if he's a little timid.

river...bet. it's the only way youll win. an A will call, but a better hand might fold. but he did call the c/r on the flop, then called the turn. he could very well be in call down mode. if this is your read, you could check and fold. saving the bet.

b

[rharless]

So yeah, I completely f'ed up the river. I knew it too, but just wanted to post here in hopes that someone could word the tongue-lashing in such a way that it would stick with me for next time I'm in this situation. Often times I will find that someone on 2+2 will phrase something in such a way that it really "rings true" and this then makes it easier for me to incorporate, going forward.

I checked. He checked. He won with K6o.

are they betting lots of draws and semi bluffing?

Yes. They are doing stuff like 3-betting the turn with 8-high, ample overcards on the board, and no draws. Each pot is raised preflop. A-high wins the showdown a fair number of times. This was on one of those startup poker sites where people are playing mostly to meet bonus deposit requirements. Play is completely ludicrous.

The pot was 7BB entering the river. Would it then be correct that my bet only has to make him fold a little more than 12% of the time, for the bet to be correct?

[J.R.]

The pot was 7BB entering the river. Would it then be correct that my bet only has to make him fold a little more than 12% of the time, for the bet to be correct?

If he has a better hand, you have to get him to fold 1 out of 7 times, or a little better than 14% (a little better than 12% is 1 out of 8, where you lose 1 seven times and win 7 once to break even).

If he has the same hand, your bet only has to succeed once to be profitable (assuming the rake is already maxed out and you both get your river bets back when he calls).