Ok... now I'm confused. Clarification?

[Str8Fish]

Yesterday I was looking at someone else's post here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=4133973

I looked back at the odds I gave him for the Flop to the River, which is 7.01-to-1 and he told me I was wrong, that it was 14.33-to-1. But that's the Turn-to-River odds!

Was I right in this post or am I going crazy? If he had 2 or 3 outs to this board, he should have called with 11 SB on the board, right? If I'm wrong, then I've been playin this game wrong.

[WalkAmongUs]

3 outs on flop = 3/47 = 44:3 odds = 14.66:1 odds. You should usually only be looking at the next card to come. If you use flop to river odds, you must take into account the fact that you'll have to call a bet on the flop AND the turn.

Edited to say: If you're getting 11:1 on the flop and you use the flop to river odds, you're really only getting 13:3 effective odds, because you have to call a double size turn bet to see the river and if you use flop to river odds you HAVE to see the river.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday I was looking at someone else's post here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=4133973

I looked back at the odds I gave him for the Flop to the River, which is 7.01-to-1 and he told me I was wrong, that it was 14.33-to-1. But that's the Turn-to-River odds!

Was I right in this post or am I going crazy? If he had 2 or 3 outs to this board, he should have called with 11 SB on the board, right? If I'm wrong, then I've been playin this game wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right that it's 7:1 - IF you can see both the turn and the river cards. 7:1 would be good enough to call there if you knew that you wouldn't have to call a turn bet. That was very unlikely in my example, and is generally unlikely in limit ring games anyway. Most of the time if the flop aggressor is met with no resistance, they will bet again on the turn.

[Str8Fish]

So if you were to raise him, wouldn't you think he would check to you on the turn and hence, you would use the flop to river odds?

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
So if you were to raise him, wouldn't you think he would check to you on the turn and hence, you would use the flop to river odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's a possibility, but now you're reducing your odds because you're paying 2 bets to win the pot. The pot was 11 bets, if you raise, you're only getting 6.5:1. Not to mention you risk the chance of being 3-bet, which is terrible with such a poor hand. Plus, your draw is INCREDIBLY weak. 3 (and that was a generous estimate) outs, with .5-.75 of it being a backdoor draw, is not worth attempting a free card play with.

[Str8Fish]

ok I see now. Sorry... I'm just beginning to get used to using the odds chart. I actually never realized the flop to river odds are only if you have to see the river. One of those revelations that never hit me before.