Hit a set on turn, but puts 3 flush on board

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t800)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t535)
CO (t790)
Button (t775)
SB (t1320)
BB (t698)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t727)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t75) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t15</font>, BB calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t75.

Turn: (t270) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ....

What line do you like best here? Do you like to bet out here, and decide if you call a raise/hope you take it down? Or do you like to check, and see what happens on the river?

[rbear]

I lead out 1/2 pot to get information out of this card. Without a flush or a straight, I think villian disappears here. Villian could easily have stuck around w/ a 6 or possibly 2 pair. Fold to reraise, and if villian cold calls, you may boat up anyways.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I lead out 1/2 pot to get information out of this card. Without a flush or a straight, I think villian disappears here. Villian could easily have stuck around w/ a 6 or possibly 2 pair. Fold to reraise, and if villian cold calls, you may boat up anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I'm just asking for opinions on how you play it. I am certainly not folding to a random raise. There are plenty of outs to improve on the river. And advising a fold to a raise is simply just poor. That being said, there are potentially some raises that I would fold to. But, you have 10 outs to improve on the river.

[rbear]

Do you call a check/push from villian here?

[prana]

[ QUOTE ]
I lead out 1/2 pot to get information out of this card. Without a flush or a straight, I think villian disappears here. Villian could easily have stuck around w/ a 6 or possibly 2 pair. Fold to reraise, and if villian cold calls, you may boat up anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? This really makes me wonder what is the dichotomy between looser MTT play and STT play because I have been somewhat successful at both but put much more faith in my MTT skills. In a MTT unless it is a very deep stacked tournament there is no way I am dropping a set to a raise here. If this is different in a shorter stacked tournament where I am getting a set fewer times before blinds hit I am misunderstanding short stack play maybe, IMO I am playing this strong regardless. You would really fold to a reraise here???

[rbear]

Fold very well could be ill advised. I'm definitely still learning here, and just saying what I'd do. I think I fold to a push(villian is most likely sticking around with something), which looks more like a flush draw than anything else. If villian does something dumb like min raise me back, I stay in and hopefully see a cheap showdown.
I think a straight would reraise this flop because of the flush draw, and I don't feel that top pair sticks around and reraises a bet on the turn. If villian plays back, I really only put them on flush/two pair. WA/WB. Meh.


EDIT: Early in a MTT I would probably call a push, being that I want to get a huge edge over opponents early.

Folding to a reraise is pretty horrible. I like checking the turn behind. This way you're winning more if he bluffs the river, calling all reasonable river leads, betting for value on river checks, and owning his slowplayed flush if you hit one of your 10 outs.

[Taraz]

I would bet out here a large percentage of the time. Sometimes I'll check, but seeing another diamond would really really suck. I don't think either play is that bad.

[tigerite]

Hero goes broke. If he has a flush you have redraw outs anyway, and most of the time he won't.

[tigerite]

As for what to do here, for an "ABC poker" line I'd usually bet between 1/2 and 2/3rds the pot, for a thinking player I might sometimes overbet the pot, to make him think I am bluffing the flush or trying to buy it. It varies.

[Scuba Chuck]

This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB. And I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least (is that still correct thinking in SNGs?). For this hand, I checked the turn, intending to check/call the river unless I improved of course, and bet the river if checked to.

I don't know if that line is optimal, but I don't see how I need to go for broke here, on the turn when I only have 1/8 of my stack in the middle.

For instance, let's assume villain called my flop raise with two overcards. He certainly isn't calling any bets on the turn without the flush (with some exception for the ace of flush). So, I'm not getting much value out of betting the turn I think. But on the river, if the board doesn't pair, I get much more out of a value call if checked to.

Once again, I'm just trying to verify how my thought process is. I'm not overly optimistic that my set bet is called on the turn by a hand that I beat.

[lacky]

bet the pot, and if he pushes, hope he is on a flush draw (likely) or hope you draw out. I aint folding.

course my itm is lower and my percent 1st is higher than most, might be a reason.....

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
... I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba,

Played a similar hand the other day. Had pocket Js flop came J72 all clubs. I was first to act w/ a pot of 400, I had approx 500 behind and I pushed with 3 players left to act. Dude insta-called with K5c and his hand held up. So this is one way to lose the most and I'm not sure I could have gotten away from this hand no matter what I did considering how many chips I had left. Maybe this is flawed thinking?

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t800)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t770)
MP3 (t535)
CO (t790)
Button (t775)
SB (t1320)
BB (t698)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t727)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t75) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t15</font>, BB calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t75.

Turn: (t270) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ....

What line do you like best here? Do you like to bet out here, and decide if you call a raise/hope you take it down? Or do you like to check, and see what happens on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.

Note: FYI Grunching on the limit forums can be loosely defined as replying cold, without reading other replies and also as a developmental post seeking input or evaluation on the reply.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lower set &amp; 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB. And I am wondering what is the best way to win the most/lose the least (is that still correct thinking in SNGs?). For this hand, I checked the turn, intending to check/call the river unless I improved of course, and bet the river if checked to.

I don't know if that line is optimal, but I don't see how I need to go for broke here, on the turn when I only have 1/8 of my stack in the middle.

For instance, let's assume villain called my flop raise with two overcards. He certainly isn't calling any bets on the turn without the flush (with some exception for the ace of flush). So, I'm not getting much value out of betting the turn I think. But on the river, if the board doesn't pair, I get much more out of a value call if checked to.

Once again, I'm just trying to verify how my thought process is. I'm not overly optimistic that my set bet is called on the turn by a hand that I beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see it as WA/WB because it's a draw-heavy board. I want to charge those draws, or drive them out.

I'd just bet out 150. If Villain pushes, it's read-dependent to me. I don't think folding is as awful as some say, but I'd most likely grit my teeth and call at the 33s (if that's where you are here).

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I've got to disagree with that. If he's got a diamond you're not way ahead and if he already has a flush you're not way behind. I normally thinking of WA/WB situations as where you're either ahead of him drawing to about 3 outs or behind him drawing to about 3 outs.

Just bet 60% of the pot and call any raise, etc.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lower set &amp; 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a strong analysis, but might be too specific in donkland, which is why I bet out (see my other post).

But if you nailed the read, nh, and a check behind then looks correct.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This hand just screams one of those situations where I am WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I've got to disagree with that. If he's got a diamond you're not way ahead and if he already has a flush you're not way behind. I normally thinking of WA/WB situations as where you're either ahead of him drawing to about 3 outs or behind him drawing to about 3 outs.

Just bet 60% of the pot and call any raise, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff, read my other post about why I think I'm WA/WB. But yes, if he has one diamond, he has 8 outs to improve, and if he already has the flush, I have 10 outs to improve.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lower set &amp; 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how fish think, and it consistently amazes me. I wish I could explain it to you, but it's possible that a hand like KQo could go fishing here. It's obviously not a wise call, but, afterall, they are called fish for a reason.

Edit: I should add that hands like 78, 47, 4x, 6x, or 5x could also call here.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how fish think, and it consistently amazes me. I wish I could explain it to you, but it's possible that a hand like KQo could go fishing here. It's obviously not a wise call, but, afterall, they are called fish for a reason.

Edit: I should add that hands like 78, 47, 4x, 6x, or 5x could also call here.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
I wish I could explain it to you,

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I wouldn't want to take up that much of your time /images/graemlins/wink.gif but I see your point. In my OP I should've said "likely" hands in my range.

[tewall]

You'd be getting better than 2 to 1 on your call. With 10 outs, I don't see how you could be sure enough of your read to lay the hand down. So if you bet the turn, you're committing yourself to the hand.

[tewall]

I'm thinking the same way you are. I think betting may actually be a bit higher EV, but not by enough to make it worth the risk. Assuming you play much better pushbot than the opponents, it seems to me the extra EV gained isn't worth the risk.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
bet the pot, and if he pushes, hope he is on a flush draw (likely) or hope you draw out. I aint folding.

course my itm is lower and my percent 1st is higher than most, might be a reason.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Lacky, I think at your level, it's reasonable to put your opponents on a more legitimate hand range than at the $33s. Thus, once you bet the turn, you're more often than not pot committed, and know what you're up against.

[Mez]

I like to keep the pot small here. I don't mind a check on the turn. I'll call upto a 3/4ths pot bet on the river if another diamond doesn't hit.

Betting out also has benefits to define the hand, but you really can't fold unless its a significant re-raise.