10/20 JJ

[jason_t]

Villain is 37/22/2.38 over a large sample.

I called the flop planning to slam a good turn card.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: I am MP2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, I call.

Turn: (7.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, I call.

River: (9.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, I call.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

[CardSharpCook]

I can see that this guy is pretty agro, and I guess that's your concern. You've got to believe you're losing this 60-75% of the time, but I agree that you are winning enough to make this a call down.

[Dazarath]

I don't like it. On the turn, you're getting 9.25:2 on your calldown. ~1/6 of hands have the flush already, and this is not taking into account the two pair hands that have you beat.

PREFLOP: Standard.

FLOP: I like your plan, your hand will be much stronger if a blank hits the turn, waiting til the turn blanks off to get aggressive is the right play IMO on this board with your hand.

TURN: I understand why you called down, this guy's stats are pretty aggressive. Its hard for me to say if calling down is right or not. Judging by the villain stats, I do think the villain is capable of checkraising this flop without a club, but I also think he will checkraise this flop every time he does have a club no matter what that club is, thats what maniacs usually do. To be honest with you, I dont know what the right move is here, I am really not happy with folding this turn or calling down. I would probably fold the turn since his postflop aggression factor is not that high for a typical lag IMO.

[goofball]

It seems that villian is aggro enough that you will be able to either get 3bets in on the flop and then raise the turn anyway. I raise the flop almost all the time.

[Evan]

I think we can fold the turn. 4.5:1 to call down when we're probably drawing dead isn't very good (I don't think he'll bet the turn with a lot of the hands we beat).

Player may be aggressive, but is he to the point of being a donkey? Aggressor's perspective of your hand when betting the turn into a four club board would most certainly include some kind of club as well. Looks like he wants you to call. He won't check, because on a four club board checking does nothing in this case. If you have J club, for instance, you will check right back. If you have a set, checking gives you a free card. Either way, it looks like he has AT LEAST a club, if not one that is paint. Fold on turn.

[BigEndian]

Based on only his numbers I think you can call down. But I think this is a good example of how numbers don't paint an accurate enough picture. Is this an opponent who will bet without a club on the turn AND the river?

And then me may just have a T (or worse) and figure you haven't hit yet because you haven't raised and so he autobets.

- Jim

[B Dids]

To quote what I told you last night

"if he's bad enough that you have to call down, call down".

[Dazarath]

I'm pretty sure this is a losing calldown even if our opponent has not seen his cards.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure this is a losing calldown even if our opponent has not seen his cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're wrong. We've got 45% equity here against a completely random hand and we only need to be good about 17.7% to eek out a profit here.

Rob

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we can fold the turn. 4.5:1 to call down when we're probably drawing dead isn't very good (I don't think he'll bet the turn with a lot of the hands we beat).

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree. the parlay that he has a worse hand and a club doesn't fall on the river isn't a very good one.

Krishan

[ QUOTE ]
two pair hands that have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
What two pair hands does he have there?

[gonores]

If you're planning on blowing 2 bets on late streets, why not raise the turn? It's a ridiculously easy fold to a 3-bet and you might get him to fold a 3-5 outer.

[BigEndian]

I like.

- Jim

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're planning on blowing 2 bets on late streets, why not raise the turn? It's a ridiculously easy fold to a 3-bet and you might get him to fold a 3-5 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking this as well. It's actually more than that when u consider losing half the pot to a river club, which is another what 4.5 outs he has.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're planning on blowing 2 bets on late streets, why not raise the turn? It's a ridiculously easy fold to a 3-bet and you might get him to fold a 3-5 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was going to make exactly the same reply and then I saw yours.

Yeah, you have a lot of folding equity on this turn. If he has something like A/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, he probably folds and he is making a pretty big mistake getting ~10:1 on a 8.5 outer. The times when you get him to fold a hand you want folding far outweigh the times you get three-bet and fold and would have won the pot since it is so unlikely he three-bets if you are ahead or drawing live.

[Klepton]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're planning on blowing 2 bets on late streets, why not raise the turn? It's a ridiculously easy fold to a 3-bet and you might get him to fold a 3-5 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

free showdown too.

[Dazarath]

Ok, scratch what I said earlier. That's what I get for posting when I'm not thinking straight. ~1/2 of hands already have the flush, and then there's a possibility that the opponent has us beat with either a Q or two pair. I guess it's a good calldown, if he plays this way with some large percentage of hands, but against any opponent who knows not to do this with 6-high, I think this is a -EV calldown.

[jason_t]

I don't think I agree with raising the turn and folding to a 3-bet. He's aggressive and I don't ever want to be moved off the best hand. There is concern for protection in this large pot but there is value in letting him fire with a worse hand on the river too.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
He's aggressive and I don't ever want to be moved off the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
That sort of macho attitude is a pretty big leak.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's aggressive and I don't ever want to be moved off the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
That sort of macho attitude is a pretty big leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see this being a macho attitude at all. I'm against an aggressive opponent. I think that he'll sometimes 3-bet with less than a pair of J. Why would I open myself up to this? Why is this macho? Why is this a leak? It's not if his range his wide enough, the likelihood he does 3-bet with a worse hand is high enough and the pot is large enough.

[CardSharpCook]

I wouldn't put it past a guy like this to 3-bet with nothing. Also, I'm not really sure I mind him drawing to 3-5outs if I know he will bet the river UI.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not really sure I mind him drawing to 3-5outs if I know he will bet the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no possible hand that has that few outs. If he is behind, he can chop with any river club, so that is 4.5 outs right there. Even if all he has to go with it is a smaller pocket pair, he has 6.5 total outs. Often he has more. We have real folding equity with a turn raise.

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't put it past a guy like this to 3-bet with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]
Certainly, more than 0% of the time you will get 3-bet by a worse hand (or a better hand with no club) and be forced to fold a hand that you shouldn't be folding. The question is whether this threat is large enough to offset the times that your raise gets your opponent to fold a hand he shouldn't be folding. I doubt that it is. Few players would three-bet this turn often without a club.

However, I have no problems with you saying that you have weighed both sides and decided that you are going to lose more from making bads than you will gain from making your opponent make bad folds. My objection is to jason_t's claim that he won't raise here because he simply refuses to ever make a bad fold. That is not a good attitude. Part of the game is that you sometimes have to fold even though there is a non-zero chance that your opponent is full of it. I have come to peace with that and outgrown associating any machismo with poker a long time ago.

[Klepton]

i think you mistake was trying to be tricky against an obvious LAG.

next 3 bet the flop and see what he does. if he 4 bets and then leads the flush turn, you can easily fold.

playing straight forward against lags = fun.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you mistake was trying to be tricky against an obvious LAG.

next 3 bet the flop and see what he does. if he 4 bets and then leads the flush turn, you can easily fold.

playing straight forward against lags = fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wasn't an attempt to be tricky. This was an attempt to not put in bets in a spot where I might be breakeven against his range. I hoped someone like Entity could analyze his range and my equity against more closely.

[jason_t]

I just think your misinterpreting what I said and reading too much into it. That's all.

[Vaughn]

what are you hoping for? No club, or queen?

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's aggressive and I don't ever want to be moved off the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
That sort of macho attitude is a pretty big leak.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this has more to do with hand ranges than it does macho. i.e. what the opponent(s) having a wider hand range for a situation implies.

if you read him as a pretty tricky player who is capable of 3-betting the turn w/ a worse hand (which seems to be your read), then just call down. if he wouldn't do this then go w/ gonores' play.

fwiw i think folding the turn is pretty bad; this guy's range of checkraising hands on the flop probably includes any pair (club or not) and occasional air. to have that high of an aggression factor while entering that many pots for a raise, he is definitely a loose cannon at times.

[DeezNutz3]

I actually like a calldown here for many of the reasons you have stated.