How much?

[SGS]

2/4 6 max game at party. I have a solid image and 557. The button hasn't gotten involved much and seem pretty decent/tight. I have AJo in the BB. Folded to the button who makes it 10 to go, I call. Heads up. Button has roughly 480.

FLOP 10,K,Q rainbow

I lead for 20 amd he calls.

TURN 9

I lead for 40 and he calls.

River brick

How much?

SGS

Well, if you say he is a pretty tight player he probably would not have called your turn bet without a jack, unless he had a set and called to hopefully get you to check him a free river.

With a set he is unlikely to call any bet above between 40-60 or 1/3 to 1/2 the pot, but if he has a jack he will call a bet substantially larger than it, at roughly double at a 200-250 bet. Therefore between 4-6 smaller calls will equal the one large call, and as he is a tight player i would say that at least 1 in 3/4 times he will have the jack and call. Thus you will make far more profit by betting big on the occasions your tight player has the one card for a straight

[Big_Jim]

Good first post.

I agree with everything said here.

[Leptyne]

I no longer use the "value bet" in this situation. this assumes I can guess the maximum value I can extract from the hapless villain when I have the nuts. I just push! I am always pleasantly surprised by the number of callers. Unlike the previous poster I find that there are a number of sets that put you on a steal, or make a "crying call". You know, the old "I knew he had it but I just had to see it".