When not to play a premium hand

[Seal]

Hello:

I was in a satellite to the $500 pot-limit WCOOP event at pokerstars and the top two finishers were to be given a seat. With 4 players left I was the chip leader with over 13k and the other players had between 3 and 8 thousand.
I said to my son, "If I was smart I would just let the other three players play and I'll probably come in second."
Of course the very next hand in the BB I pick up AK off and the SB raises the 400 blind to 1200. I figured I probably had him and without heading my own advise I raised up big.
He thought about it for a while before raising all-in and I happily called. He showed JQ off when all our chips were in the pot and I finally exhaled knowing I was a big favorite.
Of course a jack came up with no help for me and he wins the pot and the lion's share of my chips.
My question is: Was I right in my initial statement to my son? Should I have effectively sat out until the end, or is it always correct to get your chips in when you believe you are the favorite?

Thanks,
Seal

[Rickfish]

Good question. You should have told us how many chips the SB had as it affects your decision. I don't think you can necessarily sit there and hope someone else does all the dirty work for you.

Let's say the SB was the guy with about T8k. It is extremely likely that you have the best hand but you have been playing against this player for quite a while and should know how likely he is to have a genuine hand. I would raise all-in expecting him to fold. If he calls on QJ he is a fool.

The trouble hands are pairs. I have sympathy with anyone would just call. If no Ace or King falls and he wants to bet then you have to think hard about whether he has a pocket pair but if he is the type of player who tips his weak hands by underbetting you can raise. By just calling you can get out against a pair cheaply or outplay him on the flop. On the downside, he may outplay you on the flop - without an Ace or King you can't call a full bet.

Like I said, my first reaction is to go all-in immediately expecting a fold but I recognise that calling may work a lot of the time too. I just think that re-raising all-in is likely to work more often.

From your comment to your son you must have thought of folding. If you are going to do that why not sit out and go and watch TV? /forums/images/icons/smile.gif One of the good things about having lots of chips is that you can set people all-in with the best hand and survive if you are unlucky, i.e. you will have to be unlucky at least twice to get KO'd. But if you win this pot you can even try knocking out the small stacks with the worst hand. But to reiterate, I am not trying for a showdown - I am not expecting a call.

[Squirrel]

You said the remaining 3 had between 3000 and 8000. That's a pretty big spread so I'm wondering how many the SB had, and what chip position he was in.

If he was 2nd, or 3rd with a decent stack (5000 or so), his preflop play is horrible IMO.

I don't think calling would have been a terrible play on your part, but I prefer the way you played it.

I'll take AK against ANY unpaired hand for all the chips anyday. Okay, maybe not AKs /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

I know the fact this was a satellite alters strategy some, but I would need an even bigger chip lead than you had to pass up this situation and coast to 2nd.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you want good answers, always give the details. Give us his exact chip count, or at a number close enough. Don't say you raised it up big, say how much.

If you raised it up big to 3000, and he was the 8000 stack, you played it poorly. In fact, in that spot, I woudl either fold my AK or raise him all-in, so he knows he's going to face elimination if he calls. And so he knows he absolutely cannot raise and bluff you out now. Then, if he folds, I would show my AK, and type something in the chat box about "Raise me, and I'm folding or putting you all-in." Let them know they're risking it all to play with you.

Then, of course, fold a lot, because you can let them beat up each other and win your seat that way.

Your stack is big enough that if they're still raising one another, you can sit back and let them go at it without you being involved at all. Only if they're raising your blind a lot, AND not getting into it with each other, do you need to start playing some hands.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)