Q8

[Chris Daddy Cool]

live 20/40 game wednesday afternoon at bay101

i just came back from the bathroom and wandering around and i post my blind in the CO (BB + SB). its a pretty good game and i'm up a bit off of some sets i flopped.

An aggressive asian surpisingly limps UTG. Bland UTG+1 and UTG+2 limps. A young'n trying to play well limps in MP1. Bland MP2 follows suit. Then the hijack ruins the fun and raises.

I look down at my cards and see Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and make the call. The button and the SB both fold. BB calls.

8 way action for 17 small bets.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. UTG bets. UTG+1 folds. UTG+2 folds. MP1 raises. MP2 folds. Hijack 3-bets. I make a deep reach into my stack and cap it.

BB quickly gets out of the way. UTG stares for a long hard second, shakes his head muttering something about AT and folds. MP1 quietly does the same and the hijack calls. Just me and him heads up now.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG jumps out of his seat and moans. Hijack checks. I check.

River: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

He checks and I check.

He flips over JJ and I muck.

And UTG wants to kill me.

Why did you cap it on the flop?

[Brom]

For the "free" card he took on the turn?

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
For the "free" card he took on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

He might also be trying to "Buy" some outs in this giant pot.

[DeathDonkey]

No chance he lays down when the ten pairs? If not I love it.

-DeathDonkey

I understand the free card part, but what do you mean buying outs?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand the free card part, but what do you mean buying outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

If our Q is dominated it's not an out; if we get a better Q to fold by capping we purchased outs. Etc.

[CardSharpCook]

Q: May I have a free card please?

A: Sure! That'll be $80!

[CardSharpCook]

just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral. In this case you actually have 5 outs, so it is a little better. I am amazed, however, that two players folded after betting and raising. Who lays down on the flop in live play?

[Brom]

[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral. In this case you actually have 5 outs, so it is a little better. I am amazed, however, that two players folded after betting and raising. Who lays down on the flop in live play?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's assuming you get to see the river with your flop cap right? (i.e. no more than the 4 small bets go in)

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Chris,

I know I'm definitely not folding, but I'd have to do the math to know whether calling or capping is better. Assumptions on how other players react to your call and to your cap and how often you're bet into on the turn if you 4bet? My gut is capping's probably better.

GoT

[private joker]

I think the important thing in this hand is it's harder for Chris to represent a T because the jerk in EP revealed his hand. If he'd kept his mouth shut, I think Chris bets the turn hoping to take it down there.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you assume i only have 4 outs?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral. In this case you actually have 5 outs, so it is a little better. I am amazed, however, that two players folded after betting and raising. Who lays down on the flop in live play?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's assuming you get to see the river with your flop cap right? (i.e. no more than the 4 small bets go in)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and that's an iffy proposition. I fold this. But as it worked out, it does actually work.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral. In this case you actually have 5 outs, so it is a little better. I am amazed, however, that two players folded after betting and raising. Who lays down on the flop in live play?

[/ QUOTE ]

He has a backdoor spade draw, a gutshot and an overcard to the top card on the board.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you assume i only have 4 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume that you have 4 outs?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just did the math. With 4 outs and assuming that you will indeed get a free river, this is play is EV neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you assume i only have 4 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume that you have 4 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

because i can count?

[Brom]

What if he has KQ? I'm not actually trying to be a nit or anything, but what was your read on him? What hand range did you give him?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Chris,

I know I'm definitely not folding, but I'd have to do the math to know whether calling or capping is better. Assumptions on how other players react to your call and to your cap and how often you're bet into on the turn if you 4bet? My gut is capping's probably better.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

I did a little rudimentary math when Chris mentioned the hand to me and assuming we don't have an all out nutty game, I think capping is a fair amount better here, given that we can't fold. Even in the event that we don't get a free card, freezing the action to limit it to one bet on the turn is fairly important given the current pot size and the liklihood that we're staying until the river.

Rob

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[/ QUOTE ]

but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[/ QUOTE ]

but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two words: Backdoor flush.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's actually worth ~1.9 outs if it's fully clean. I'd give it ~1.6 here.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

10/47 * 10/46 = 4.6%. That is the same as one out on the flop.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
10/47 * 10/46 = 4.6%. That is the same as one out on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
The second numerator should be 9, and no it's not.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

oops. 4.1% Dude, basic out calculation is Outs * 2 * cards to come = %it will come.

On the flop an out is worth about 4.5% (this method undervalues few outs and overvalues many)

[Brom]

The percentage chance that a backdoor flush will come in is 10/47 * 9/46 ~= 0.04163 or 4.1%

The formula relating number of outs (on the flop) to percentage chance of hitting (by the river, which is the only way to get a backdoor flush) is:

%chance = N(93 - N)/2162

Where N is equal to the number of outs.

Solving for N in this equation will give one the number of outs a backdoor flush is equivalent to. With the given numbers, one gets that a backdoor flush is equal to about 0.9780 outs. Since this isn't the nut flush though it is worth even less than that. Take what you will from these calculations, I just wanted to clear it up.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
oops. 4.1% Dude, basic out calculation is Outs * 2 * cards to come = %it will come.

On the flop an out is worth about 4.5% (this method undervalues few outs and overvalues many)

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wrong. 4.1% is correct, but you've already accounted for the fact that there are two cards to come by multiplying by 47 then 46. There is no need to divide by two. You have ~1.9 b/d flush outs if they are all clean. Your method is valid if that correction has not already been made, for example calculating for KQ on a 942 flop vs 55. In that instances you'd divide the total chance of it coming by the river by 2 to get your outs, since there are no running combos to account for that cannot be simply divided by 45 like "normal" outs. If that doesn't make sense, think of it this way: you have a 10/47 chance (~21%) of picking up 9 outs. Do you see how this is different from "normal" outs like the KQ example?

In theory we're kind of arguing semantics, since you know the probability of it coming. Whatever lingo you choose to transpose that into is fine as long as you don't apply it incorrectly somewhere along the way. In this case, though, you are.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

I'm not dividing anything by 2... OK, if I have KK on a AK7 board and he turns over AA, I have 1 out. there is a 4.5% chance that I'll hit my king. I have 3 to a flush on the flop. There is a 4.1% chance that I hit on the river. This comparison says that a BDF is equal to 1 out. I do see how you are saying that, in a way, a BDF is more valuable than another out in that we'll have a good idea whether or not it will come by the turn, but in effecting our flop equity calculations, we can only count this as 1 out.

[GuyOnTilt]

Ah wow. Okay, I see what I did now that I actually did the math. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I had done a bdfd calc a couple weeks ago for a specific hand and figured out how implied odds on a turn call when turn our fd equated into extra outs on the flop and it came out to ~1.9. For some reason that number stuck in my head and I forgot that was with added in implieds, bleh. My bad. Carry on. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

GoT

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah wow. Okay, I see what I did now that I actually did the math. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I had done a bdfd calc a couple weeks ago for a specific hand and figured out how implied odds on a turn call when turn our fd equated into extra outs on the flop and it came out to ~1.9. For some reason that number stuck in my head and I forgot that was with added in implieds, bleh. My bad. Carry on. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

whatever dude, i'm still not folding the flop.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]

whatever dude, i'm still not folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither.

GoT

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

whatever dude, i'm still not folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

omg EFF the flop, what should CDC throw if i've just thrown RRR followeed by RRR???

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
Even in the event that we don't get a free card, freezing the action to limit it to one bet on the turn is fairly important given the current pot size and the liklihood that we're staying until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well put.

We are getting ~8:1 on the flop even if we call 3 cold so seeing the turn seems in order to me.... and for reasons Rob has listed I think capping becomes the play.

Edited: I made a dumb comment about pre-flop but somehow missed that we had posted.

-joey

[newhizzle]

id normally fold the flop, but i guess thats wrong, if im calling, im capping

edit: also, i might bet the turn, the pot is monsterous at this point, even if dude only folds rarely it will be profitable since we have equity with our gutshot too, but getting c/r'd would obviously suck since we have to call it