A3s (Feat. Busted Flush Draw)

[-Skeme-]

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed)

Hero ($91.80)
BB ($110.10)
UTG ($208.70)
UTG+1 ($62.40)
MP1 ($311.60)
MP2 ($225.60)
Hero ($200)
Button ($218.85)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $1, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero calls $2</font>, BB folds.

Turn: ($8) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, MP2 calls $8.

River: ($24) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $20</font>, Hero ??
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Comments and questions appreciated and encouraged for all streets.

[emil3000]

Are you thinking about bluffraising? I doubt it will work, your hand does not look like a straight or full house IMO.

[meleader2]

which hero are you? the 200$ or the 91$? i wouldn't even consider reraising here. MP1's bet on the flop may have been weak but that's a river pot bet...if anything else you should have raised his flop then 2/3rd the turn.

[yvesaint]

whos got the busted draw, you or him? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

if youre feeling frisky, check-raise, but i think youre probably actually ahead of most draws he could have (K-high flush, any hand with a 9, etc.)

do you think you could possibly fold out a J with a check-raise? i dont

[JaBlue]

Just fold

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Just fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Board + action is too innocent for that.

[beset7]

The fact that he led out on the flop would keep me from bluff-raising here. The bet size on the river is fishy but I think he has a jack often enough here to make folding OK. You have any reads on him?

[-Skeme-]

I think a minbet is terribly weak, especially after limping preflop and being checked to by the blinds. It's usually a weak hand, IMO. Usually.

[tdomeski]

anytime you c/r the river and he folds you were probably ahead anyways so I don't see why you would do that. i would probably just fold...heroic calls in $200 NL rarely work out, let them do that when you have a good hand.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a minbet is terribly weak, especially after limping preflop and being checked to by the blinds. It's usually a weak hand, IMO. Usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, i lead or check/raise this flop something like 100% of the time. Too aggro?

[Denutz]

I agree with todomski - if you c/r and take it down, you were probably ahead anyways.

I don't like the c/r on the river, b/c if you had a good hand, normally you would have been playing it at least somewhat aggressively to protect against the flush draw, correct?

It looks like what it is - a bluff to try to take down the pot b/c you didn't hit your hand, IMO. A large bluff MAY get him to fold a jack, but is it worth it for the small pot?

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
anytime you c/r the river and he folds you were probably ahead anyways so I don't see why you would do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't. Ever.


[ QUOTE ]
i would probably just fold...heroic calls in $200 NL rarely work out, let them do that when you have a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also do this. A lot. In fact, frequently when people call down on very drawheavy boards and the river misses. I've picked off many a bluff like that.


[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, i raise this flop something like 100% of the time. Too aggro?

[/ QUOTE ]

Too aggro and reckless for me, unless of course you only mean in this exact situation, with the minbet and all. Then yes, a raise is probably decent, because I figure my FE is high. If it was a full PSB I'd just call, but I'd much rather lead the flop myself instead of check-raising with my draw, OOP.

This board is weird, it could've helped Villain, I don't know, no read. I don't know why I checked, I lead this almost 90% of the time I'd say. With his tiny bet, sure a check-raise could be good, not entire sure why I only called, not that I think a call is bad.

Anyways, onto my analysis. I'd let the replies go for longer, but I've gotta sleep soon and don't wanna wake up to 30 replies saying, "A check-raise bluff is stupid!"

Alright, first off, I was never intending on a check-raise bluff. The question was whether or not I should even entertain the thought of picking off a bluff by Villain. I'm surprised more people didn't immediately assume that's what I meant (not that it's a solid idea either.)

Preflop: bland, basic and simple. Flop: check? Sure, call of minbet, sure. Turn is where it gets interesting. I lead for $8 as opposed to a check-raise on the flop for a few reasons. 1) It's dang tricky, aint it? 2) I'd like to define my hand a little, take command, and bet myself as opposed to check-calling a bet. Taking command as in I might win the pot right there. This hope/thought comes directly from the flop action. If he had bet full pot I'd check again in fear of being raised if I'd lead flop.

He calls. The board is insanely draw heavy. He only calls. Another clue, heheh. River totally blanks and I check. He bets big, and then the gears start turning, heh.

1) What hand wants a call here with his $20 bet after limping preflop, minbetting ultra draw heavy flop, and NOT raising my turn lead?

2) What reasonable hand can Villain have that bets here after previous action that beats me? Let's go through his range:

Overpair? No. The limp preflop knocks out that possibility IMO. 2 pair? Nah, the high majority of the time I will expect the Villain to raise on such a draw heavy board. JT is the most reasonable and I'd expect more action from it. A set? No, same reasoning as above, I expect raising on the turn and preflop raises for 2/3s of the set possibilities.

4X/images/graemlins/spade.gif? That's definitely a possibility, although probably slightly unlikely as I have the other 2 spades and the higher type /images/graemlins/spade.gif's are already on the board.

Anyways, I did not think there were any hands (except maybe busted draw that somehow included a 4, not that likely, though) that bet river this hard. It seemed like a bet designed to get a crappy hand to fold. Any other pair will obviously check behind after my action on flop. AJo is a possibility, but I don't think it bets here that big that often, if ever.

Obviously I called. I had him on a 9 or another busted draw. He showed KQo and MHIG. I just think his range of hands that bet here are more likely bluffs than legitimate hands.

There is also the possibility he is bluffing with the best hand, but I doubt it. This was not a brag post btw.

[yvesaint]

yeah, like everyone said, all those busted draws hes bluffing here, you beat, so call &gt; fold &gt; raise

nh

[-Skeme-]

Again, raising never entered my mind. The whole "any hand you fold out here was most likely behind anyway" concept isn't foreign to me, guys.

Just trying to improve my hand reading skills. Unfortunately, the other half of this sample size is when I fold, and I don't get results for those. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[swarm]

Dude, you have the nut flush draw with an overcard. You say the minbet smells of weakness. What do you think your call looks like, someone chasing a draw?

Raise the damn flop to $10 and take it down. If they call and check the turn, fire again.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think your call looks like, someone chasing a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, which is why I thought his big river bet was so likely to be an attempt at pushing me out. Also, sometimes I do check-call from BB with huge hand and lead big on turn.


[ QUOTE ]
Raise the damn flop to $10 and take it down. If they call and check the turn, fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I rarely do this. I don't like playing draws for big pots right off the bat, OOP. As I said earlier, a check-raise in this spot is fine, given his crappy minbet.

[yvesaint]

oh come on theres no way you check-call 2-pair/made straight/set here from the BB in an un-raised pot...

[beset7]

I called in this exact spot the other day with UI AK (though the pot was a little bigger because of more preflop/flop action). I think if you had a bigger kicker to your ace I'd feel better about calling.

[-Skeme-]

Not on this board, no. On unscary boards, yes, all the time. It's a good way to get a pot going against a Villain who you think is somewhat weak. They always think you're stealing. I can't count on them betting again and will rarely get called when I check-raise.

I also had "not on boards like this, though" added in my first draft of the last post. Don't remember where it went, I'm tired. Going to Mickey D's soon.

[pokerjoker]

IMO villian is a donkey and is trying to induce hero to bluff. When someone min bets when they can just check and be guarenteed a freecard this is usually a donkeys monster.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you had a bigger kicker to your ace I'd feel better about calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. I had him on the 9, though. More variations of a random 9 that I beat than A9. /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[ QUOTE ]
IMO villian is a donkey and is trying to induce hero to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty damn complicated move for a monster-having-minbetting-donkey, wouldn't you say? What monsters does this donkey have that he doesn't raise preflop? 88 and JT? Meh.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO villian is a donkey and is trying to induce hero to bluff. When someone min bets when they can just check and be guarenteed a freecard this is usually a donkeys monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't coincide with my experience of donkeys.

[-Skeme-]

Also, sorry about the messed up stacks. I had $200, UTG had the small stack, I was SB. I had to recreate this manually using the outline of a different hand. I couldn't get the convertor to work properly.

[swarm]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the damn flop to $10 and take it down. If they call and check the turn, fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I rarely do this. I don't like playing draws for big pots right off the bat, OOP. As I said earlier, a check-raise in this spot is fine, given his crappy minbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your thinking here but why play an approach that induces villans to bluff you. A more aggressive line will lead to villans checking down rivers to your A high versus having to make heroic 20 calls...

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand your thinking here but why play an approach that induces villans to bluff you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't. I would've been happy if he checked behind and mucked. He bet big and I began thinking about his range and reasons for doing this. I had no prior thinking of, "I'm gonna let him bluff big so I can snap it off with my A3."

It's like you said, my hand looked weak, like a missed draw. I thought his bet screamed of desperation so I looked him up. I wasn't already thinking of how I'd be snapping off some PSB on the river when I checked the flop.


[ QUOTE ]
A more aggressive line will lead to villans checking down rivers to your A high versus having to make heroic 20 calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't have to make the call. I didn't want to be in the position to where I had to make that call. Again, I would've been very content with him condeding the pot by checking behind. If he woulda bet like $8 I would've folded. The bet was fishy so I began thinking.

[Wayfare]

I do not make that call, but if you think you're good 1/3 of the time... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tdomeski]

I think it's like 50/50 on fold/call but the fact that he could be "bluffing" a hand like 8-9 would make me lean towards folding just barely.

[ahnuld]

Leading flop rules all actions, or cr flop bet big on turn.

River looks like a boring easy fold. Dont go looking for battles in small pots with garbage. He isnt folding a J

[kurto]

Why call 1/5 of your stack with nothing? He could be bluffing you with a pair of 2s and beat you. A weak 8, 10 or J.

by the way- I tend to read his flop bet 1 of 3 ways-
"I have the draw and want to build the pot in case it hits"
"I have a small weak piece of it and want to let everyone know... but I don't feel that great about it so, if you reraise me, I'll probably fold."
or "I have a monster and hope I can induce a raise by betting weak."

If its 1 or 2, you're better off acting on the flop because you've shown weakness now and you've lost bluffing credibility.

If its 3... he's been trapping you and is looking to get paid off on the river.

Of all the options above... the weak "I'm on a draw bet" is the only one you're beating... though even then, someone drawing to a flush with K4... just hit big.

I fold.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a minbet is terribly weak, especially after limping preflop and being checked to by the blinds. It's usually a weak hand, IMO. Usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost always lead out on this flop, but if i don't, and villian bets $2, i checkraise 100% of the time (barring some VERY specific read)

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
River looks like a boring easy fold. Dont go looking for battles in small pots with garbage. He isnt folding a J

[/ QUOTE ]

AAAARGHH! STOP SAYING THINGS LIKE THIS!! This is why posting hands that hinge on Hero's read is a bad idea.


[ QUOTE ]
He could be bluffing you with a pair of 2s and beat you. A weak 8, 10 or J.


[/ QUOTE ]

A pair of Deuces doesn't call my turn lead. If they do, they most certainly check behind on river. The only bare J that bets is probably AJo and MAYBE KJo and I don't think they bet full pot here.


[ QUOTE ]
by the way- I tend to read his flop bet 1 of 3 ways-
"I have the draw and want to build the pot in case it hits"
"I have a small weak piece of it and want to let everyone know... but I don't feel that great about it so, if you reraise me, I'll probably fold."
or "I have a monster and hope I can induce a raise by betting weak."

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not reading a flop bet, sir. A read is putting someone on a hand or at least narrowing their range to a certain degree, not naming every possible explanation for their action.


[ QUOTE ]
If its 1 or 2, you're better off acting on the flop because you've shown weakness now and you've lost bluffing credibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I guess it's excellent that I frequently check-call flop, lead turn for PSB with sets and straights on rainbow boards.


[ QUOTE ]
If its 3... he's been trapping you and is looking to get paid off on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I expect a monster to put in a decent bet or raise on this insanely drawheavy board long before the river.


[ QUOTE ]
Of all the options above... the weak "I'm on a draw bet" is the only one you're beating... though even then, someone drawing to a flush with K4... just hit big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, yeah, K4 is real likely.


[ QUOTE ]
I almost always lead out on this flop, but if i don't, and villian bets $2, i checkraise 100% of the time (barring some VERY specific read)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I agree. The check is alright, but once he bets so weak I should've just raised and not played a decent hand so timid. I prefer a lead here as well, again, I'm not sure why I checked.