QQ flop in very large pot

[Justin A]

Party 15/30, I followed someone on my buddy list to this game, and it turned out that all his fishy friends were there too. I have no read on the 3 bettor, I have reads on UTG1 and the BB that say they have nearly any two cards.

There's a poster in the cutoff. UTG1 limps, I raise black QQ in MP. HJ calls, Poster calls, button 3bets, SB folds, everyone calls back to me and I cap, everyone calls. 6 to the flop for 24ish bets.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to me and I?

Cry

[Evan]

My first instinct is to check and call one bet. I can't imagine you have the best hand here.

Edit to say I missed your backdoor flush draw. I'd call 2 bets since you'd have to be getting at least 28:2 at that point.

[bone77]

Ok, so do you want to tie yourself in to the pot, or do you want the easy exit? Betting will do the former, checking the latter. I'm a lagtard, so I vote for betting. The chances of it getting raised might be high with so many people in there, but with a fairly strong made hand and a bunch of backdoors, I want to at least see a turn. If you check the possibility of facing 2 bets cold back to you is fairly good and I wouldn't want to be in that position.

-tony

[Brom]

1 sb here stands a chance of getting you to the river. A check here means you'll only get to the turn for free some of the time. With the backdoor draws plus two-outter you have, I'd bet here and hopefully take a very valuable free card on the turn. You may also fold out KK, but I doubt it with the stats you provided.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
1 sb here stands a chance of getting you to the river. A check here means you'll only get to the turn for free some of the time. With the backdoor draws plus two-outter you have, I'd bet here and hopefully take a very valuable free card on the turn. You may also fold out KK, but I doubt it with the stats you provided.

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I think the chances of a free card are very low given that he is out of position against half the field, including the preflop 3 bettor. The chance to get through the flop for one bet is more important than the chance of a free card.

[Brom]

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1 sb here stands a chance of getting you to the river. A check here means you'll only get to the turn for free some of the time. With the backdoor draws plus two-outter you have, I'd bet here and hopefully take a very valuable free card on the turn. You may also fold out KK, but I doubt it with the stats you provided.

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I think the chances of a free card are very low given that he is out of position against half the field, including the preflop 3 bettor. The chance to get through the flop for one bet is more important than the chance of a free card.

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Sorry I don't understand what your implying with this? Are you saying check/call or check/fold or what?

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Flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to me and I?

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Check and muck.

While your backdoor flush draw is probably good, it might not be. If you could see the turn for one small bet, then maybe take the turn, but more likely than not, it will cost you at Least two small bets.

Sometimes life just sucks. But save your dough for when the odds are stacked in your favor.

[Evan]

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1 sb here stands a chance of getting you to the river. A check here means you'll only get to the turn for free some of the time. With the backdoor draws plus two-outter you have, I'd bet here and hopefully take a very valuable free card on the turn. You may also fold out KK, but I doubt it with the stats you provided.

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I think the chances of a free card are very low given that he is out of position against half the field, including the preflop 3 bettor. The chance to get through the flop for one bet is more important than the chance of a free card.

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Sorry I don't understand what your implying with this? Are you saying check/call or check/fold or what?

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[gonores]

Anyone who claims that they can't see a turn for 2SBs here is wrong. We're looking at a bare minimum of 14:1 and Justin has a good 4 outs, after discounting all his draws. I mean, half the damn deck gives him a good draw at the river.

As far as the hand goes, I think betting isn't a bad alternative...something I'd do occasionally. It'll add deception to your hand, and it may make people make bad folds. However, I'll check usually here, since it seems to be the kind of field where I can see a turn cheaper by checking.

In a hand with 6 players, there is a very good chance you are already beat and well behind. Still, you should bet out here. See where the action takes you - if there is a slew of re-raises that follow, you can fold and feel like you made the correct decision. What's the point of a big pot when someone with Ax, even if that X is a rag, leaves you with 2 to 3 outs at best (assuming that someone doesn't have the Kspade). On the other hand, if everyone just calls, well, then maybe the pot is big enough to justify betting again on the turn as long as a spade or K doesn't come up. In other words, your flop bet should be a probe bet, something to feel things out, but you're eyes should be set on folding a hand if the betting gets hot. Just got to deal with QQ losing sometimes, that's all.

[gonores]

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but you're eyes should be set on folding a hand if the betting gets hot.

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This is why betting shouldn't be done too often in this spot. If you bet out and it 2 more to call when it gets back to you, you HAVE to call. Now you've just paid 3 SBs to see a turn card. Not that I hate betting, but my primary thoughts on this flop is "how do I get to the turn for cheap?" If the best hand on this board is Ax where X is small enough to consider a fold (and the player is bad enough to both play Ax in a spot like that and fold a huge pot with this hand), you can try to cross that bridge later in the hand.

Fair enough, but on a board with two spades, if you are checking in mid position, a player may deduce that his "A"x is still good on the turn by reasoning that in a large, multi-way pot, you would have definitely played your "A"(J-K kicker), trips, two pair, with a flush and outside straight draw on board.

Now, I do see your point that if the players are so abyssmal, they may not see a check as a sure sign hero doesn't have an "A," trips, or two pair. However, that's a very risky assumption to make here.

Betting out also gives you a small chance of getting position on the turn (unlikely, but for one SB, why not).

So, if you are in any way planning to see this pot any further, betting out seems to be the best plan.

Argun

[Justin A]

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Anyone who claims that they can't see a turn for 2SBs here is wrong. We're looking at a bare minimum of 14:1 and Justin has a good 4 outs, after discounting all his draws. I mean, half the damn deck gives him a good draw at the river.

As far as the hand goes, I think betting isn't a bad alternative...something I'd do occasionally. It'll add deception to your hand, and it may make people make bad folds. However, I'll check usually here, since it seems to be the kind of field where I can see a turn cheaper by checking.

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Yeah this is a good point and I would have definitely continued for 2 small bets, maybe 3. The 8 is an important card here because it makes my backdoor straight outs pretty strong. As Gonores said I have about 4 outs here and my implied odds are probably good enough to see the turn for 3 bets.

Something that no one has mentioned is that there's still some chance that I have the best hand on the flop. If I do have the best hand, giving a free card is not good, but is that outweighed by my desire to see the turn as cheaply as possible if I don't have the best hand?

I'm going to amend my argument. I am going to advocate checking. Basically, I want to see what HJ, Poster, and button do first. Then, I can go from there. I don't see how with three people to go, someone is not betting at this flop. Let them do the weeding out for you, and then when it gets back to you, make a decision. No way you're giving a "free card" here with that many players. Gonores is smart and I'm dumb.

Argun

I check and call for one bet. For two I fold.

[Justin A]

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I check and call for one bet. For two I fold.

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Folding for two bets is a mistake.

[I.Rowboat]

If the limpers are the sort that would also limp KT or 9T in a full game, I think that further mitigates the value of putting any more money into this pot. You could be drawing completely dead here, as gutshots are getting the right price to peel even if it's two bets to them. I think the play here is to check/call one bet and fold to two.

[Justin A]

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If the limpers are the sort that would also limp KT or 9T in a full game, I think that further mitigates the value of putting any more money into this pot. You could be drawing completely dead here, as gutshots are getting the right price to peel even if it's two bets to them. I think the play here is to check/call one bet and fold to two.

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Did you read the thread?

[andyfox]

"If I do have the best hand, giving a free card is not good"

Nobody's folding for one small bet, so I don't see it as a tragedy if it happens to get checked around. It sure would seem likely, though, that there's an ace behind you.

In my game, I wouldn't decide to bet or check based on the value of deception. In a pot this size, they're calling, calling, calling.

[I.Rowboat]

{quote]Did you ready the thread?

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Yeah, I did, and if my less-than-rosy take on the situation is different from the rest of the thread, so be it.

It's a six handed pot on a draw heavy board and you are either WA/WB...and I really doubt you are WA, as big multiway pots almost always include at least one if not two A's. So IMO, you only have backdoor draws to a non-nut flush, a one card straight, a set, or a miracle FH/quads...furthermore, if the players are as willing to gamble as you indicate, your Q outs may be tainted by the presence of a KT or T9, so hitting your set may not be good enough. Oh, yeah, and you are in a pot with a bunch of fish who will almost certainly take any A to showdown, so I don't like the chances of getting a weak A to fold. IMO, you will have to improve a lot to win.

If I held the queens, I would try to get to the turn as cheaply as possible, and I would expect to be folding the turn most of the time. You didn't hit your set on the flop, you probably don't have TP, and you will almost certainly need to hit runner/runner to make the best hand. There is a lot in the pot and it is sure to be a monster by the time it's over, so it isn't a bad spot in which to gamble, but it seems like everyone else is gambling, too, so there would appear to be further opportunities ahead when you may hold a more obvious advantage.

Just my .02 cents, so take it for what it's worth.

[gonores]

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draw heavy board

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you are either WA/WB

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You are misusing the term WA/WB here. If he is ahead, there is almost no chance he is "way ahead."

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you only have backdoor draws to a non-nut flush, a one card straight, a set, or a miracle FH/quads

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That's 5.5ish outs, according to Ed Miller. Even discounting for bigger spades and tainted set/straight outs, you still have to credit Justin with 4 outs. Calling 2SBs in this spot is not only proper, it's mandatory, barring a read that it will be capped behind him.

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but it seems like everyone else is gambling, too, so there would appear to be further opportunities ahead when you may hold a more obvious advantage.

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I have no clue what this means.

[NLSoldier]

i didnt read the post but i know you have a habit of being a big pussy and folding queens in big pots.

[mike l.]

bet. try to win big pots.

[Justin A]

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bet. try to win big pots.

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mike, how does betting help me win this pot?

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30, I followed someone on my buddy list to this game, and it turned out that all his fishy friends were there too. I have no read on the 3 bettor, I have reads on UTG1 and the BB that say they have nearly any two cards.

There's a poster in the cutoff. UTG1 limps, I raise black QQ in MP. HJ calls, Poster calls, button 3bets, SB folds, everyone calls back to me and I cap, everyone calls. 6 to the flop for 24ish bets.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to me and I?

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No one is folding. Everyone is coming along. You have around 3.5 outs. The pot is huge. Betting here would be foolishness.

peace

john nickle

[cnfuzzd]

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bet. try to win big pots.

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Ive started adopting this philosophy. Not of betting when im hopelessly behind so that i can charge myself the most to draw to my few unclean outs, but of doing everything i can to win big pots. The other day, i was HU on the river in a 20BB pot, and i knew i was losing. So i took my cards, and JAMMED EM IN MY OPPONENTS EYEHOLE! I then stood up, and said in my best Jack Palance "Well boys, looks like this pot is mine" as my opponents eye-juice dripped all over the smooth green felt of the poker table. No one disagreed.

peace

john nickle