$33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining

[Steve]

Villian is a tight player, should I figure "I'm probably a coin flip, wait for a better time" and fold? If his range is AJs+, AQ+, 66+, I'm still a slight underdog. Am I estimating a tight player's range correctly with the blinds so high?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t6000 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP3 (t42904)
CO (t96359)
Button (t29622)
SB (t75260)
BB (t70254)
UTG (t44431)
UTG+1 (t30702)
Villian (t89265)
Hero (t80160)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, <font color="#666666">Villian is all in</font>, Hero???.

[yvesaint]

its ok to fold, i definitely dont see tight players doing this with AQ-AJ

[Steve]

[ QUOTE ]
its ok to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

so, would you fold it?

AK wants to be the pusher, not the pushee. Especially with 17 players remaining and villain's stack size. Wait for better opportunities against smaller stacks.

[Chief911]

I think I'd fold this. I used to be the person that called this, but with the tight read, I think its a fold.

There is one situation where I would advocate a call, and that is where you felt like you were significantly outclassed in the 17 players remaining. Then you might want to be willing to gambool here.

Otherwise, I think you can fold.

Nick

I want to win the tournament. I think you can add quite a few hands to his range with the blinds this high, making it +ev to call. A raise of this size would be unusual with a big pair also. I'm calling.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to win the tournament. I think you can add quite a few hands to his range with the blinds this high, making it +ev to call. A raise of this size would be unusual with a big pair also. I'm calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get this. the blinds just aren't very big. both hero and villain have &gt;15bb to start the hand.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its ok to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

so, would you fold it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[locutus2002]

Instacall.

I expect to see TT-JJ most of the time.
AK is about a coinflip and chips won are worth much more than chips lost ($EV).

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall.

I expect to see TT-JJ most of the time.
AK is about a coinflip and chips won are worth much more than chips lost ($EV).

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf

Not an instacall. I'm treating this as a (slightly bigger) SNG with 17 players left. Calling coinflip has to be -EV here (not sure if MTTs can be ICM'd, but if they can, I'm somewhat certain this is -EV).

[Chief911]

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall.

I expect to see TT-JJ most of the time.
AK is about a coinflip and chips won are worth much more than chips lost ($EV).

[/ QUOTE ]

My head hurts.

[locutus2002]

If villain showed me jacks I would call.

Because the expected value of a 160K stack with 16 players left is alot more than twice the expected value of a stack with 80K... to me.

[Pasterbator]

and whats the expected value of ZERO?!

btw, i fold this.

Agree with chief. First of all, my hand range for villain is 88 - QQ. If he's that tight, he's not playing anything outside of that range that way. It's just absurd to think so - AQ with a guy second in chips to his left? No sir. With the BB at 6,000, you have some wiggle room. You have room to buy blinds and make plays on the flop. Even if villain is switching up, he may still be a 54/46 favorite here. If you knew another player was going all-in to your left, then maybe... /images/graemlins/smile.gif. But, not now.

AK has more fold equity than value imo, I personally wouldnt risk going all in on an unmade hand without being the raiser.

[locutus2002]

You can treat it how you like, but this is nothing like a Sit N go.

It's a 17 player tournament that pays 10 spots (relative to where everyone is at) The payout is increasingly top heavy.
1st 34.2%
2nd 20.5%
3rd 12.3%
4th 9.6%
5th 7.5%
6th 5.5%
7th 4.1%
8th 2.7%
9th 2.1%
10th 1.4%
(taken from party website and adjusted as % of total distributed to top 10 places in a field of 400+)


The average stack is 10XBB. 160K is 27XBB, (20XBB at 4k/8k)

Just eyeballing it an 80K stack is worth about 8th-9th place (on avg). And 160K stack is worth 5th-6th.

There are unlikely to be any very soft players at this point, the most important thing is chips. You are substantially overvaluing your ability to outplay the other players if you are willing to pass on your best hands with 13XBB left.

Then again maybe you can fold and pick up aces next hand.

[citanul]

i don't know where you come up with:

1) your number for average stack left in the tournament, as you shouldn't be able to have one i think
2) any of a number of other things which are pulled entirely out of the air.

[billyjex]

I flip a coin. Heads call, Tails fold.

[locutus2002]

1) avg stack taken from eyeballing sum of chips at table divided by # players at table (assumption other table about the same) (margin for error : small)

2) 80/6 = ~13

3) look it up yourself. 73% paid to top 10 spots.
1st spot gets 34% of this (X 73%)= 25% of total prize pool.

I intentionally overlooked the small amout for 11th-17th which should be deducted from all the prizes but its not significant.


On a personal note, your probably a dick.


3)

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]

On a personal note, your probably a dick.


[/ QUOTE ]

good point, now i can discount what he's saying because hes a dick

*rolls eyes*

[miami32]

I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz.

i think that the beginning of this thread, the part where you put your opponent on a range, and then proceed, is reasonable. the parts that include "i know i'd have the worst of it, so i call instantly" not so much.

c

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding?!...the 4th spade hits and we're golden!...lol..think u got the wrong thread here bud...anyways...after reviewing the mentioned ideas and rationale...I would fold.

[AtlBrvs4Life]

This is tough, but I would probably fold knowing your read. If he really is tight, the best you can hope for is AQ and I doubt that.

By the way, was this the 4:10 rebuy from yesterday? If so, you can definitely wait for a better spot. I have never seen worse play on a final table for so much money in my online poker career. I finished 2nd for $5500. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Steve]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, was this the 4:10 rebuy from yesterday?

[/ QUOTE ]

twas the 12:10AM actually. btw if anybody cares the Villian had AA. But you already knew that.