Totalbet 10% refund on Craps losses

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
If craps is your game of choice, or you have always wanted to give it a try then Tues 6 Dec - Sun 11 Dec are the dates to play! If the dice didn't roll in your favour during this time we'll refund you with 10% cashback on Mon 12 Dec 2005!

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I wrong to think this is +ev?

[junkmail3]

If you bet $100 and lose $1.40 of that, you get .14 back. So, it's a 10% discount on the house edge.

So, yes.

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a 10% discount on the house edge.

So, no.

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp?

edit: bad reading comprehension, thought you meant "yes" to the +ev, not "yes" to me being wrong /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'll leave my stupidity up there for all to see.

Yes, because it's losses so it will still be -ev. If you lose that is.

[flatline]

I'm pretty sure this can be +EV.

Let's say you make only one bet. Pass line for $100.

Two possibilites.
48.6% of the time you win and have $200. (.486*200)=97.2
51.4% of the time you lose and have $10. (.514*10)=5.14

So, on average you will have (97.2+5.14)=$102.34

Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change?

[junkmail3]

Check this out. It's a bit confusing, but might help:

(i'm not sure about my +/- EV consideration anymore)
wizard of odds calculations (http://wizardofodds.com/general/rebate.pdf)

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Of course, if you keep betting, the HA will quickly make this -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the HA isn't changing ... how can the EV of a bet change?

[/ QUOTE ]

The refund isn't on each bet, it's on the total loss.

[bobman0330]

Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob,

Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments.

[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you people insane? This is huge +EV. Bet $100 on pass or something. (I have no idea how craps works.) If you win, you win $100, if you lose, you lose $90.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob,

Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, missed it in my righteous indignation. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[XChamp]

I cash in for $1,000. I place $1,000 on the pass line knowing the house has a 1.4% advantage. If I lose then I cash out my $100 refund and never play again. If I win then I cash out my $2,000 and never play again.

Now, normally 50.7% of the time I lose $1,000. 49.3% of the time I win $1,000.

.507*-($1,000) + .493*($1,000) = -$14.00

However, I get $100 back if I lose, so I really only lose $900 instead of $1,000. Thus, my EV is

EV = .507*(-$900) + .493*($1,000) = $36.70

How is this -EV?

I was thinking if one should just play the min. say $5 with double odds (-.6%) and drinks a lot with only tipping $1 then maybe is could be a 0 EV? Not sure how much per hour you would lose at -.6% but you could get 2 drinks an hours worth $3/each while tipping $2 for a gain of $4/hour minus your -.6% loss an hour. Lots of fun for almost nothing.

[flatline]

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking if one should just play the min. say $5 with double odds (-.6%) and drinks a lot with only tipping $1 then maybe is could be a 0 EV? Not sure how much per hour you would lose at -.6% but you could get 2 drinks an hours worth $3/each while tipping $2 for a gain of $4/hour minus your -.6% loss an hour. Lots of fun for almost nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think online casinos give you free drinks.

You have a good point there.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
I cash in for $1,000. I place $1,000 on the pass line knowing the house has a 1.4% advantage. If I lose then I cash out my $100 refund and never play again. If I win then I cash out my $2,000 and never play again.

Now, normally 50.7% of the time I lose $1,000. 49.3% of the time I win $1,000.

.507*-($1,000) + .493*($1,000) = -$14.00

However, I get $100 back if I lose, so I really only lose $900 instead of $1,000. Thus, my EV is

EV = .507*(-$900) + .493*($1,000) = $36.70

How is this -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

XChamp,

Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments.

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
we'll refund you with 10% cashback on Mon 12 Dec 2005!

[/ QUOTE ]

If what they actually mean is that they refund you "a 10% discount on the house edge", then this is really confusingly worded, and could be construed as an attempt to mislead. The way it is worded, it certainly sounds +EV. The way junkmail3 and you later exlplain it, it is certainly -EV.

Hence everybodys confusion. Do you have a copy of the original email, or links to terms & conditions? From what you posted, it's really misleading.

[theghost]

These are the T&C for the craps promo:

[ QUOTE ]
10% CASHBACK ON CRAPS
If craps is your game of choice, or you have always wanted to give it a try then Tues 6 Dec - Sun 11 Dec are the dates to play! If the dice didn't roll in your favour during this time we'll refund you with 10% cashback on Mon 12 Dec 2005!

Terms & Conditions
Only play on Craps in our casino will qualify for the 10% cashback promotion in the promotional period and the minimum refund issued will be £0.10. Only players with an overall loss in their account for play from Tues 6 Dec until midnight Sun 11 Dec (GMT) will be credited - example: a player plays craps on Wed 7 Dec and at the end of the session has won £100, on Sat 10 Dec the player returns and plays Craps again and at the end of the session loses £120. The player does not play again and on Mon 12 Dec their account is credited with £2.00 for the overall loss of £20 they had during the promotional period. All qualifying accounts will be credited by 18h00 on Monday 12 Dec 2005.


[/ QUOTE ]

Their upcoming promotion is Baccarat:
[ QUOTE ]
10% CASHBACK ON BACCARAT
Playing Baccarat is as easy as betting red or black on roulette and the house edge is very low! This means you stand a great chance of winning and if you don't, playing between Sat 17 - Wed 21 Dec, we'll give you 10% cashback!

Terms & Conditions
Only play on Baccarat in the casino will qualify for the 10% cashback promotion during the promotional period and the minimum refund issued will be £0.10. Only players with an overall loss in their account for play from Sat 17 Dec until midnight Wed 21 Dec (GMT) will be credited - example: a player plays baccarat on Mon 19 Dec and at the end of the session has won £70, on Tue 20 Dec the player returns and plays baccarat again and at the end of the session loses £80. The player does not play again and on Thurs 22 Dec their account is credited with £1.00 for the overall loss of £10 they had during the promotional period. All qualifying accounts will be credited by 18h00 GMT on Thursday 22 December 2005.


[/ QUOTE ]

Edited for t&c linky (http://www.totalbetcasino.co.uk/Promotions/Totalbet_Monthly_Cash_Match/0,8949,,00.html).

Also: wouldn't baccarat be the best game to play for a one time bet? Is a large one time bet the best appraoch?

[stigmata]

So it's not a discount on the house edge. It's a discount on your losses.

As you play a large number of games your losses will approach the expectation from the house edge and the two become the same. However, over a small number of games this could lead to a +EV situation.

For example: Betting 1 unit on the banker in baccarat:

This is the normal situation, from wizardofodds:
(0.458597)*1*0.95 + (0.446247)*(-1) + 0.095156(0) = -0.01057985 expected return.

If we add in a +0.1 (e.g 10% of 1 unit cashback) on a single bet loss, it leads to a +EV situation:
(0.458597)*1*0.95 + ((0.446247)*(-1) + 0.1) + 0.095156(0) = 0.08942015

So on a single $100 bet the EV is $9. The problem comes when you make multiple bets. This is because if you win one hand and lose the next two, your rebate will be around $9 (a bit more because a win only pays 0.95). If you win 100 and lose 101 hands, the rebate will still only be around $9.

On a single bet it is a discount on your one loss, sufficient to overcome the odds. On multiple bets, it is essentally a discount on the house edge.

I'm thinking I could be doing something wrong though.....
This could perhaps be combined with bonus whoring?

[stigmata]

2 mistakes (so far) in my post:

1) The second equation should read:

(0.458597)*1*0.95 + ((0.446247)*(-1 + 0.1)) + 0.095156(0) = 0.03404485

E.g. Average $3.50 on a single $100 bet.

2) The rebate on one win and two losses of $100 bets will be $10.50