Common problem with super-draws

[Marlow]

My first post in MNL! Gotta love the split!

The problem...

Let’s say you and villain are deep stacked in a 2/4 game with around 1,000 each. Villian is a TAG and will bet strong if he plays, but does not often get out of line.

You have T /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and find yourself HU with villain on the flop. The action is on you, and you are OOP. There’s $30 in the pot.

The flop is: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif x

How often do you lead for pot or less? How often does hero overbet (and by how much)? If you do not lead, please offer your reasoning.

I will post a follow-up question about the turn later today.

[maranello11]

If Villian raised, I like a check raise on flop. Whenever I have a hand like this and a flop that strong, I say to myself I am going to play a big pot. I only bet this flop if in position and checked too.

[Hattifnatt]

In this example I will lead almost 100% of the time with normal 100bb stacks and hope I can 3-bet push.

With 250bb its a little tougher and I probably check and call and might make a move on any turn.

[maranello11]

Reason I like a check raise is if he just calls flop bet and turn is a blank, then you can decide if you want to back down or not from the hand. It always sucks betting turn and then getting checkraised for the rest of your stack with one card to come. I guess it could be worse though!

[Marlow]

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If Villian raised, I like a check raise on flop. Whenever I have a hand like this and a flop that strong, I say to myself I am going to play a big pot. I only bet this flop if in position and checked too.

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You never lead OOP? If not, I'm interested in your thinking here...

tyvm

[Hattifnatt]

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If Villian raised, I like a check raise on flop. Whenever I have a hand like this and a flop that strong, I say to myself I am going to play a big pot. I only bet this flop if in position and checked too.

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c/r is limit play IMO. About the only time I do that is when I have top pair bad kicker and want to win it right there and can slow down if called. Of course, you have to do it once in a while for deceptive purposes.

[Ghazban]

The deeper the stacks, the more my action depends on what I know about my opponent. "TAG who doesn't get out of line much" isn't really enough information. If I somehow end up playing deep and don't have a read (say he was deep when I sat and I tripled up within my first orbit), I try to play small pots until I have a better feel for how hard I have to push things to make him fold. This often has me in check/call mode with huge draws like an OESFD because they'll rarely give you poor immediate odds (you can call a PSB on an OESFD). With weaker draws, I just don't get involved.

I think your example has a typo, too, as there are 2 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the deck.

[Hattifnatt]

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I think your example has a typo, too, as there are 2 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the deck.

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New deck CHEF /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[maranello11]

A lead is fine, but if Villian raised this pre-flop and is checked too, he will almost always fire a bet, thus you check raise and he either lays down his overs and you win pot or he three bets his AA, KK and you suckout or he just flat calls and you have to play poker on turn. If you always lead the flop this allows overs to get away easily and I feel your hand loses value. When calling a raise with this type of hand dont we want to play a big pot with such a huge draw?

[Marlow]

Thanks, I'll fix the typo ASAP.

Quote:
"I try to play small pots until I have a better feel for how hard I have to push things to make him fold."

Question: Do you want him to fold the flop, or are you trying to gauge it for a move on a later street?

[pho75]

I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

[FlyingStart]

I checkraise big if villain was the PFR. If I was PFR I lead for pot (If you are gonna win a big pot with this hand you have to disguise your hand. Leading also have the advantage that you can steal the pot on the turn UI because you have AA thus far in the hand). In both cases I push if he raises again.

edit: good point about the big stacks.. maybe this calls for a slightly different different line depending on villain. Maybe slow down a little on the flop and try to get more money in on the turn when you make your hand, hopefully it will be the straight not the flush. (both would be nice if he as AKs tho /images/graemlins/cool.gif)

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, I'll fix the typo ASAP.

Quote:
"I try to play small pots until I have a better feel for how hard I have to push things to make him fold."

Question: Do you want him to fold the flop, or are you trying to gauge it for a move on a later street?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking. If the villain is going to go to the felt with AA even with a 400BB stack on a board like this, I'm not too thrilled about racing (provided, of course, that he has a nonzero chance of paying me off when I hit something). Its not that I want him to fold if I get it in with 15 clean outs twice (I don't); its that I don't need to take that kind of variance if I can win more in a different hand (say when I have a set on a board like this).

In any capped game, deep stack situations change slightly as the effect of one hand on future hands is tangible. If I lose my 400BB stack when I put it in as a small favorite, I am not likely to be able to get another shot at putting that much money in vs. this opponent again this session.

Re: my quote, I was speaking more of the hand in general than the flop action in particular. I can't get a good idea of how much pressure this guy will take with an overpair-- I need to get that information by watching him in other hands (both vs. me and vs. others at the table).

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
A lead is fine, but if Villian raised this pre-flop and is checked too, he will almost always fire a bet, thus you check raise and he either lays down his overs and you win pot or he three bets his AA, KK and you suckout or he just flat calls and you have to play poker on turn. If you always lead the flop this allows overs to get away easily and I feel your hand loses value. When calling a raise with this type of hand dont we want to play a big pot with such a huge draw?

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With these kinds of hands sure you want to play big pots, but it's important how you grow the pots. You really don't crush anything until you make your hand, you're just in good shape against everything, which means folding equity is very important. Either I want to make a huge bet that has a lot of folding equity, or I want to make my hand and get my money in against a nearly dead opponent. OOP means it's harder to get paid when you hit, which means you usually take the bet/threebet line to get the money in on the flop when you're in good shape and put your opponent to a tough decision. This is way too awkward with these stacksizes. I guess you might say checkraise/push serves the same purpose, but who the hell folds after threebetting the flop. You just get money in on a coinflip. If you're flatcalled you say "play poker on the turn". Yeah sure, but the situation sucks when you miss. You now have a lot of money in the pot and a lot less equity, as well as an opponent in position whose shown a lot of strength by calling the checkraise. There will be about 250 in the pot assuming pot-repot on the flop. You now have to either check/call or checkraise all in. Real tough spot.

Check/calling is my default, lots of room to play on the turn and river, hopefully you hit your straight and not the flush.

[fuzzbox]

What exactly is the problem? What is a good line?

You can play such a strong hand in a lot of ways.

I kinda like lead for pot - if raised then just call (you have immediate pot odds). I then might check-raise the turn if I miss, or lead if I hit. Check-raising the turn with this hand is good because your FE is higher, and there is more money in the pot that you can win (you might be winning hundreds rather than 60), and you put a lot of pressure on villain.

I dont like going to the felt for this much money for this crappy pot.

Besides, I might hit on the turn and be able to get it in as a monster favourite.

[98romaine]

You did not mention pre flop action but I would lead this flop almost everytime with this type of hand. I don't like checking b/c I may miss the opportunity to start building a pot on the flop with a very good drawing hand. This is good situation to play a big pot in 250BB game.

[ahnuld]

I recently had this hapen to me, where villan was pfr and I called with suited connectors and flopped a flush draw and a pair. We both had 725 preflop. I like my line, which was lead for pot, he raises, I push. It was a big big raise but I have 5050 against anything but a set, and huuuge fold equity. If villan prf I suggest you do the same.

[teamdonkey]

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I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it's more like 54/46 against an overpair, assuming you have no folding equity. OOP i don't mind getting it in on the flop at all.

[Leptyne]

As only a small favorite on the flop I don't want to get a lot of money in now. Of course if you miss on the turn you're a serious dog.

When I'm deep stacked my play changes. I'm looking to play against weak players. I don't want to play another deep stack that is unknown when I'm OOP.

[pzhon]

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I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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/images/graemlins/club.gif In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.

/images/graemlins/club.gif It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop.

[-Skeme-]

I haven't read any of this thread, but I will say this: The most common problem with superdraws is folding equity.. a lot of times Hero simply does not have it and ends up flipping a coin for a stack. This is not how to play your super draws. If a decent opponent has raised preflop and reraised your flop lead, you don't always have to jam. I know your OESFD looks very pretty, but it's still only a 3% favorite over Aces, which is rarely folding. If you willingly shove it in against Aces or any other hand with no FE, you might as well start calling all ins with small pairs and taking races.

Folding equity comes first.

[tdomeski]

don't play drawing hands out of position against better players...

in this hand i would lead every time with these stacks.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
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I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/club.gif In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.

/images/graemlins/club.gif It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is. If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain.

The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip.

There are better ways to play such a magnificient hand.

Consider this kind of action
Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls

Pot (270)
Turn J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
A seemingly innocuous card to villain, and you can either lead for 200, and villain doesnt know what to do with his AA. Or maybe you check, and villain believes you to be flushing, so he bets 200, and you can now push, the pot is 400 - which is well worth fighting for.

Or another turn could go
Pot (270)
2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero checks, villain bets 200, hero pushes. Villain will have a tough time calling that with his Aces, as your action really looks like a set. If he does call, well you still have many outs.

Or what about this
Pot (270)
2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
hero checks ... villain checks ... what? He checks? Well yes, villain might be a little afraid of a check/raise, so he might just check here, and then the river ..

J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Now you lead for 300, and villain has to look you up (if indeed he has AA).


I would judge all of the above scenarios to be superior to firing 1k into the pot on the flop. All of them increase your chances of winning the pot, and increase the amount of money you can win with it. You also tend to put maximum pressure on an opponent who does have a big pair like AA or KK, and there are various scenarios where those hands will call big bets on the turn/river when they are drawing stone dead.

[ahnuld]

You get it allin on the flop here, he either folds alot and you win, he either calls and you gamble as a sligth favorite, or he calls and you have a set next time which you play the same way and hes [censored]. It all adds up to extra cash for you. Anyone who doesnt wanna get in on this flop either doesnt have enough gamble in them or ins underrolled.

[pzhon]

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.


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These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is.

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The folding equity is huge. Expect people to raise/fold with TT-QQ, and perhaps a few hands without a pair. Some people will fold AA. It's particularly valuable to get higher flush draws to fold.

If it were very likely that the villain would call, then it would be much more profitable to bet/3-bet all-in on the flop with sets.

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If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain.

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It doesn't bother me to be a small favorite in the very unlikely case that the villain calls, and to pick up a small to medium sized pot most of the time.

[ QUOTE ]

The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip.
...

Consider this kind of action
Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls


[/ QUOTE ]
At that point, there isn't $30 in the pot. There is $180.

It's tough to get paid off OOP. It makes more sense to try to keep the pot small until you hit when you have position.