Major Downswing..........seriously lost

[Rojosox]

Hey all, I figured to post here as I do every once in a while. I normally play the 10-20 NL, and 200 sngs....but over the last week I have run into thee worst luck I could ever imagine. I have begun to question my play, but honestly, I do not think it's that bad. I'm on the worst downswing I've ever had. Losing $45,000 in 6 days is just eating me up and I wanted to know how people go about dealing with significant downswings and how to come out of them. Is there anything specific that you do that you do not think others do that definitely helps? I mean I clearly can take a break, as I'm sure I'll get that response...or play it out... just looking for a place to turn as my head has been a gigantic mess over this past week. Thanks in advance,

-Jared

[michw]

I drop down when I'm running bad and it usually gets me going in the right direction.

[tewall]

Matt Matros commented about this in his book on the making of a poker player. He went through his hand histories very carefully, and found a number of leaks. Basically he found he had been accumulating certain mistakes (such as playing too many hands, not sufficient values OOP) too slowly to notice while they were happening, but he was able to discover them when looking through the hand histories.

You could get someone else to look through them as well.

But your downswing is a very short amount of time. His dry run was much, much longer than yours.

[bennies]

Hi Rojo, hang in there. You probably won't get many replies while our dear american members are sleeping. But they will reply tonight for sure.

About your downswing. I don't play cash games and I have no idea about the variance there. However, for sng's, this downswing is enormous. I think you should question your play, it is rare that winning players loose over 50 buyins, and I've never heard of a winning player loosing more than 100. Your downswing is equivalent to over 200 buyins at the 215's.

[jeffraider]

Worst luck? That's like 200 buyins at the 200s, do you mean a little bad luck and a whole lot of tilt?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Rojo, hang in there. You probably won't get many replies while our dear american members are sleeping. But they will reply tonight for sure.

About your downswing. I don't play cash games and I have no idea about the variance there. However, for sng's, this downswing is enormous. I think you should question your play, it is rare that winning players loose over 50 buyins, and I've never heard of a winning player loosing more than 100. Your downswing is equivalent to over 200 buyins at the 215's.

[/ QUOTE ]

most of it is from playing 10 20 and 25 50 nl if what i am told on aim is correct.

edit: to those of you that don't know jared, he is one of the best players at 10/20 nl on party, and is a hell of a sng player also. he has helped me immensly in my quest to be a better player.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hi Rojo, hang in there. You probably won't get many replies while our dear american members are sleeping. But they will reply tonight for sure.

About your downswing. I don't play cash games and I have no idea about the variance there. However, for sng's, this downswing is enormous. I think you should question your play, it is rare that winning players loose over 50 buyins, and I've never heard of a winning player loosing more than 100. Your downswing is equivalent to over 200 buyins at the 215's.

[/ QUOTE ]

most of it is from playing 10 20 and 25 50 nl if what i am told on aim is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's still like... 15-30 buyins right? No way something isn't right.

[Rojosox]

I'm actually even over about 200 SNGs this week. The torture has been at 10-20 NL, and i'm only down 3k of the 45k in 25/50-50/100 NL........ I'd post there, but know way more people on this forum.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

most of it is from playing 10 20 and 25 50 nl if what i am told on aim is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's still like... 15-30 buyins right? No way something isn't right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dropped 30-40 buyins at the $55s within a week, I really wasn't doing anything wrong (maybe overplaying small pairs a little bit to raises), 15-30 really isn't as much as you'd think!

All I can say to Rojo is keep battling, I'd say look over your HHs but I am sure you've done so already. Variance is a bitch that rides us all at some point.

[Degen]

pwn the step 5's for a week, make yourself feel better

or come to thailand and get a couple of hot slaves /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Melchiades]

15-30 buy ins in NL cash is a LOT.

As others have said, this downswing is too big to be due to variance unless you happen to be victim to an extremely rare occurence. It's reasonable (and perfectly understandable) to assume that you've been playing badly for part of this, but that doesn't matter much as it's in the past.

Here are my suggestions; I think doing some combination of these is +EV:

1) Take a break (obviously).

2) Cash out all but a small amount (I think $55 is good) and work your way from the $11s to the $55s playing on a falsely short bankroll with poor bankroll management on a site different from the one you currently play. (You could also do the equivalent in cash games, but I can't translate stakes for you.) If you lose your fake roll, laugh (If you won't find it funny, don't do this one).

3) Play a new game, like LO8 or triple-draw lowball or something. Play it at stakes that you're very comfortable with (2/4?), but take it seriously.

4) Take someone to a nice restaurant and realize how little money's worth.

5) Keep yourself busy for a while and only come back to poker when you feel like playing, not when you feel like making money.

6) Think about times when you lost money because of obviously bad play. Consider how much money finding and correcting those mistakes has made you since. Then, review your HHs. Find mistakes that you made towards the beginning of your downswing that are standard for you; also find mistakes that were due to tilt. Enjoy the ridiculous amount of money losing this $45k earned you in the long run.

Honestly hope this helps.

[zipppy]

Hey Jared-

I think multi-pwning smaller stakes SNGs/NL cash games is a great way to regain confidence, stop the downswing, and have a little "break" from the regular games you play in.

By doing this, you can see others' mistakes and open up your eyes to how far you've come. If you play 100 SNGs at each level starting with the 22s, or 5000ish hands at each cash game level starting with 1/2 NL, perhaps you can better evaluate at which level you're noticing less mistakes in others' play, and figure out if there are serious leaks in your own game.

If whatever you decide to do isn't working, think seriously about stealing raptor's luckbox.

>>>ZIPPPY

Edit: I know that 22s and 1/2 is WAY below what you normally play, but that's the idea. Start with something you'll crush.

[durron597]

When on a big downswing I go read Irieguy's posts on the subject.

Post 1 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=17 65434&Searchpage=2&Main=1765434&Words=-Re%3A&topic=&Search=true#Post1765434)

Post 2 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=18 22484&Searchpage=2&Main=1822484&Words=-Re%3A&topic=&Search=true#Post1822484)

Post 3 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=23 02700&Searchpage=1&Main=2302700&Words=-Re%3A&topic=&Search=true#Post2302700)

[Maulik]

I was "running terribly" until I looked over some HHs via PT and found out I was using my selective memory to remember when I was outdrawn. Fortunately for me, I begin replaying my hands and seeing this was a consequence of playing some hands terribly.

[1C5]

Nice post.

I am in the middle if "it" now and "it" sucks.

[citanul]

Rojo,

It sounds like you're getting crushed at 10/20. Crushed hard.

At times like this it's important to do a few things:

1) slow down or stop
2) look over hands
3) eliminate the tilt
4) find a way to make the games you play fun to you again before you play them
5) notice how much money you have left, and how you're still up a buttload
6) when you do figure out that you're on tilt, figure out how to not do it to yourself in the future, and then consider the money lost now money well spent if you never go donkeynuts again
7) go back to the basics. if the basics don't work at your normal game, move down a stake or two
8) play fewer tables. laugh a little. breathe a little

I'm sure there's more. You know other poker players. Go hang out and make them let you unload your bad beat stories on them.

c

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I am in the middle if "it" now and "it" sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jared, if you're running even at the $200s perhaps you should ride it out playing SnGs. There is less variance, especially if you decided to drop down a level at least until your confidence is back.

Lord knows IC5 and the rest of us $22ers hope you end this quick before you drop down to the $22s.

Report back when you start running well again... good luck.

[citanul]

sidenote:

are you Rojocuse or whatever?

c

[lacky]

The thing that has helped me the most in looking at negative varience is playing with an excel spreadsheet. I dont remember who wrote it, the file is called streaks. If you pm me I can email it to you, but you could probably search it too.

the sheet calculates simulated runs of play bases on the bb/100 and sd you put in. Playing around with it was a real education in how bad you really can run. I know from it to play 20/40 limit I have to be ready to deal with a $25,000+ downswing, more than twice the accepted 300 big bet standerd people like to talk about. I would guess in 10/20 nl that figure is closer to $80000.

I hope to never go through a run like that, but if pops up in normal simulated runs, it's clobbering somebody in real life too. I hope to not get cancer, but it's happening to somebody.

oh, and take a week off, start back lower, reveiw your play, etc. etc.

[1C5]

I know nothing of a downswing like that as I only play the 22s but being down money after 750 games (2 months worth of play for me) takes its toll on my confidence in my poker skills. I can't remember the last time I had a "good" day.

[TheNoodleMan]

I reccommend watching a juicy game for a while without sitting in it. After a half an hour of watching some folks donk it it up, you should have much more confidence in your own game.

[rohjoh]

Jared,

I think it was that 7 buy in beating I put on you at Hollywood Park, sent you into hypertilt. Seriously though, you have been crushing the 10-20 for a while now, take a step back, and review your hands. I know you were playing to many hands. The biggest thing is to not try to make it back in 1 day, or 1 month for that matter. I would even suggest not playing or the rest of the month. Go enjoy your trip, and forget about poker for a while.

[The Yugoslavian]

Rojosox,

Well, look at it this way too....you've been playing a ton of poker in the last year or whatever and from everything I've heard you've had some pretty great runs of profit. I've been surprised I didn't see this post sooner given how much you play and the stakes you play for.

Your downswing doesn't mean you've suddenly lost your skill....likely you are playing sub-optimally from where you were playing *PLUS* you're seeing 'IT' playing at high stakes so the absolute $$ involved is so much.

I think taking a break or playing something where the $$ involved won't have such an affect on you for a short while may be beneficial.

Maybe you should just become a pro pineapple player, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[el_dusto]

I'm just coming off a 20-some buy-in losing streak. Looking at my HHs between the last 30 crappy games and the first 30 not-crappy games, three things really stuck out at me:

1) I was in too many marginal hands, especially OOP.
2) My bets were shrinking as the streak went on. (I suspect this is less useful in limit play, but I noticed that my bets had slowly gone from 1/2- and pot-size to 1/4- and 1/2-pot.)
3) I was super-mega-crazy-tilted after the first bad day, when a number of good opportunities were sabotaged by bad luck. This weird SMC-tilt lasted almost a week as I became one giant self-fulfilling prophecy; even though the tilt had me convinced that I was tremendously unlucky, I was really getting myself into -EV situations over and over, forcing flips and 40/60s when I didn't really need to.

Just as variance delivers its unholy cargo every now and then, it will save us in the end. Good luck, play hard, and if you start to get that tilty feeling, get off the table. ^_^

oh, and one thing I do that I've never heard of anyone else doing: I write long and detailed bad-beat stories for my blog, read them, leave them on my screen a while, and then never publish them. It's almost as good as telling someone else, except you don't have to deal with the audible sigh and eye-roll.

[rbear]

FWIW, I have sweated you a few times this past week (215's). Seems like you are playing optimally there, and could keep grinding out a profit there. Anyways, don't cash games swing a lot more than SnG's??? I tend to avoid them for this reason.

Wish you the best

[Apathy]

Jared you already know my advice. I know people like to play through these things or drop down but I have always found that a break from playing before going to work on HHs and reading is best. If you decide to keep playing then make sure you stay well bankrolled for the games you are in and be sure to watch your game extra closely for mistakes.

[Custer]

Put in more hours. You are a very good player. You are running very bad. You are sad because you are running bad. When you run better and make money you will be happy. So play more. The more you play the sooner you will run better. And the sooner you run better the sooner you'll be happy. And that's the important thing, being happy.

Good Luck.

moses

[citanul]

dude, that last guy's post was poetic. you should change your location to "sad because running bad" or some [censored]. laughter = medicine.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Jared you already know my advice. I know people like to play through these things or drop down but I have always found that a break from playing before going to work on HHs and reading is best. If you decide to keep playing then make sure you stay well bankrolled for the games you are in and be sure to watch your game extra closely for mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is easily the best advice in this thread. I find that when I am running bad at sngs, it is usually best to take a weekend off, and blow off some steam (read: booze and womanize, maybe a round of golf or two.) After taking a day or two off from playing, play a few less tables, study up, and get your mind back in the right frame.

[FieryJustice]

Rojosox is one of my few heros. /images/graemlins/smile.gif You are a master...you know things will get better. Take $10,000 and go on a sweet vacation and chill out.

[citanul]

Chicago - London - Moscow - Budapest - Prague - Saint Petersburg - Istanbul - Hong Kong - Singapore - Bali (Denpasar) - Singapore - Delhi - Bangkok - Kuala Lumpur - Sydney - Bangkok - Los Angeles - Chicago

was like 5k for airfare.

Wow... $45,000 in $10/$20?

I've been playing for 15 months and building up my BR gradually and then the last three days I've had a 300BB downswing. I guess I am happy to be not alone... misery loves company...

[Daliman]

Your luckbox obviously overheated.