200NL...I keep swearing I'll stop this...2 barrel bluff (or 3)

[pokerjoker]

Semi Hypothetical hand.

Villian seemed pretty tight pf. I put him on pocket pair TT (maybe JJ or below. AA is possible too but less likely, especially when he didnt push river. Most people wont play JJ-KK like this.

exactly which street do u give up?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO ($180.55)
Button ($265.15)
SB ($291.25)
BB ($165.10)
UTG ($517.55)
Hero ($171)
MP1 ($252.70)
MP2 ($27.60)
MP3 ($165.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $9, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($30) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP2 folds, UTG calls $20.

Turn: ($70) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, UTG calls $50.

River: ($170) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero is allin.

[scdavis0]

I think this is fine.

[soah]

I wrote a longer response but it's easier to just say that bluffing should only be done if you have a read that tells you there's a reasonable chance for success. No read = no bluff

[scdavis0]

I mean the turn is iffy when a lot of players won't fold and you got 6 outs. When you catch one of the best cards you possibly can on the river, no way can you wimp out.

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean the turn is iffy when a lot of players won't fold and you got 6 outs. When you catch one of the best cards you possibly can on the river, no way can you wimp out.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I'd give up on the turn with no read, but certainly the river is a clear bluff.

[FlyingStart]

What is hero represeting with that last bullett? AA? Or is villain supposed to buy that our line is consistent with AK? If we had QQ we would check behind here.

Also the last bullet will only be 1/2 the pot... I wouldn't have the balls, but I'm not a big bluffer

[emil3000]

The line is consistent with AK since it in fact is AQ.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
What is hero represeting with that last bullett?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero is representing: 9x, AA, KK, AK, x/images/graemlins/heart.gifx/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 22, 66, 99

I think this line is quite possible with all of these holdings, except maybe 99.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
If we had QQ we would check behind here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would certainly not check behind with QQ after playing flop and turn like this.

[tdomeski]

if he folded you were ahead or he is an idiot...

if you know he's an idiot then good play...

if not, bad bluff...

the answer is in your read...nothing we can say can help you.

holla.

[FlyingStart]

You are valuebetting against lower PP?

[FlyingStart]

Raising with 22 and 66 UTG+1 full ring? I know some people do it, and I sometimes do similar things, but it's not really common.. which should make it harder for villan to believe hero. A raise from UTG+1 with any 9 is also unlikely (expect pocket nines, which isn't the case here).

I'm not saying it's bad, but I think a suspecious villain might call hero down here with a PP since the river bet is only 1/2 PSB

[rwanger]

UTG hasn't defined his hand at all, and yet the villian keeps calling.

This flop had NO draws on it, and the turn didn't pick up ANY new legit draws (why would he have 87 or two hearts)...

With this board, the villian has you beat. If he thought he was good on the turn, he is calling you on the river....why would the king scare him? The only way you might have pulled ahead on the river was if you had AhKh. In that case though, you probably should have checked behind the turn (unless the villian is one of those types who calls the flop a lot just to see if you'll fire again), again for the reason that he must have some sort of hand to call you on this flop.

He has a 9 or pocket 2's. Pocket 6's is also a possibility if you've been raising alot preflop and reliably continuation betting.

[pokerjoker]

I checked river and Villian showed TT. I still wonder if he would have folded river after calling $50 on turn if I pushed. I think he would have.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked river and Villian showed TT. I still wonder if he would have folded river after calling $50 on turn if I pushed. I think he would have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving up was the right play. You can only bet $90 into $170...he's getting 3:1 to call where he has had an overpair the whole way.

If you're him, you should call too. You only have to be ahead 1/3 of the time.

[Big_Jim]

I didn't say it was a good bluff, just answering the question.

I think it's bad. River card didn't really change much.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad. River card didn't really change much.

[/ QUOTE ]

River was the scariest card there is for any possible hand Villain might have (assuming he's very unlikely to have two hearts). As played, that river is a mandatory push. Villain is getting good odds so he is likely to call, but the bluff is also getting good odds (almost 2-1), and AQ (non-flush) is about the only plausible hand for Hero to have that Villain beats.

The only way this isn't a clear push is if Hero has shown down pre-flop raises out of position with PPs lower than 99 or hands like AJ, or if Villain is a known calling station.

[girgy44]

[ QUOTE ]
why would the king scare him? The only way you might have pulled ahead on the river was if you had AhKh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or if he had AKo which he pretty much has. If the Q hits and he pushes do you say the only hand the villain can put you on is AhQh?

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]

Or if he had AKo which he pretty much has. If the Q hits and he pushes do you say the only hand the villain can put you on is AhQh?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always assume that your opponent as AK when he raises preflop, bets a rag flop, fires again on turn brick?

If this is you, and you have AK, do you push the river? Because (and of course this is easy for me to say because of the results) TT, JJ, and QQ are the only worse hands I see calling. I also wouldn't have put my opponent on any of those 3, since I assume that they usually raise preflop.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you always assume that your opponent as AK when he raises preflop, bets a rag flop, fires again on turn brick?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if Villain puts hero on AK specifically. What's important is that, at this point, villain is only beating a bluff, and the most likely hand for Hero to be bluffing with just made a pair. TT and even JJ probably give up (or give up more often than 1 time in 3, anyway), as do lesser hands, and QQ generally raises preflop. The only question for Hero is, how often does Villain have a hand that beats AK? It can't be often, and if villain was super-slow-playing a boat or AA, or overpaying for a flush draw, then c'est la vie.

[Leptyne]

The biggest problem I have with this play is a tite player UTG. Many players will limp here with strong cards for various reasons. With a cold caller in the pot villain should have more than a limping hand to call an EP bring-in, a cold call, and being UTG. Surely AA and KK would have been heard from but QQ down to 22 could call. Your lead clearly represents either a 9 or a PP that can beat 99.

When you decide to fire the 2nd barrell I think the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif gave your cold bluff, semi-bluff or strong hand some legs. I fire again at the river. I don't see any way the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif can hurt, it can only strengthen the possibilities that villain was beat all along or you got lucky and he's beat now by a back door flush, AK, etc.

I don't see anything wrong with the play, just the timing. You should be attempting this against weak-tite players that have clearly demonstrated they will wilt as the pressure increases. Being a calling station in this situation is a sign of weakness, unless he's got the nuts, or thinks you're over-aggro enough to keep betting into a better hand, but you need better info than this before you fire that 2nd barrell.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
TT and even JJ probably give up (or give up more often than 1 time in 3, anyway)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have TT or JJ and fold this more than 75% of the time, then, no offense, but I want you in my game. You check called the villian into putting his stack in while you had an overpair...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

Not trying to be snooty, but that is the utter definition of weak tight.

[soah]

If your read is that your opponent will not fire the third barrel, then it would be correct.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have TT or JJ and fold this more than 75% of the time, then, no offense, but I want you in my game. You check called the villian into putting his stack in while you had an overpair...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

Not trying to be snooty, but that is the utter definition of weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like your problem with check-folding the river isn't with folding, but with getting into that spot in the first place. Agreed that Villain's play to this point is poor if he intends to check-fold the river, but, in a vacuum, folding to a push is correct. TT-JJ will not be ahead often enough to make calling profitable, and I don't think it's close. Again, AQ is virtually the only plausible holding that TT-JJ beats.

[ QUOTE ]
...and then folded getting 3:1 when ONE overcard came?

[/ QUOTE ]

This understates the importance of that K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. It's not just one overcard. It pairs AK and completes the flush, thus demolishing the range of plausible hands that TT-JJ beats.

[rwanger]

I promise you, if you are folding TT here as villian, you are costing yourself a TON of money. I call getting 3:1 on my money every time here, even if the river is the Ace of hearts. Why? Because if I put myself in this position, I thought TT was good and I could get my opponent to get all his money in with no hand.

I'm not saying the villians line is always correct, although in this particular case it was, and if he folds here, you put a little note: "will call down with what he thinks is the best hand, then fold to half-pot bet when a random over card falls".

The rub is that you guys seem to fear AK for some reason, so the backdoor flush K scares the hell out of you and you fold. So I assume you call then when it comes Q of hearts?

[BlackRain]

At the 200 NL game that I know I think your line is chip spewing most of the time. Continuation betting into 2 other people isn't the best play IMO when you completely whiff on the flop. If you do cont. bet, I like a stronger bet on the flop. 25 bucks makes TT and smaller PP's think about calling a lot more from my experience. If you are going to fire a second barrel on the turn I don't think it has to be so heavy. 30 bucks makes a mediocre hand go away too and doesn't get you so heavily invested. I also think it makes more sense to fire a 2nd barrel with AK, rather than AQ, as you can now back into a winner against QQ as well. I think the river pretty much plays itself, you have to bet that scare card. It would be nice to have a bit more behind here to take away his odds (don't bet the turn so hard). But there is no stopping now. Bet and pray.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I promise you, if you are folding TT here as villian, you are costing yourself a TON of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget for a minute that folding makes your play on the flop and turn look absurd in retrospect. Hero raised the pot in EP preflop. Then bet big on the flop and turn, and pushed the river. All you beat at the river is AQ-AJ, or a pocket pair 88 or lower -- i.e. a pure bluff. He's unlikely to have raised preflop to begin with with those hands, let alone fire three barrels post-flop with a hand that clearly isn't good and an opponent who likes his cards.

Do you honestly believe that Hero, with this line, has one of those hands more than 25% of the time in this game? If so, I think you're way off, and we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying the villians line is always correct, although in this particular case it was, and if he folds here, you put a little note: "will call down with what he thinks is the best hand, then fold to half-pot bet when a random over card falls".

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, you keep denigrating that K /images/graemlins/heart.gif. The J /images/graemlins/club.gif is a "random overcard," unlikely to have hit your opponent whether he was bluffing or not. The K /images/graemlins/heart.gif cripples the chances that Hero is bluffing with the worst hand.

[ QUOTE ]
The rub is that you guys seem to fear AK for some reason, so the backdoor flush K scares the hell out of you and you fold. So I assume you call then when it comes Q of hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'd play it check-call/check-call/check to begin with, so I wouldn't be in this spot in the first place. That said, I would fear the Q much less than the K, since EP raises with AK are much more common than raises with AQ or KQ. I don't know if that's enough to turn it into a good call, but if I'd played the land like that and the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif came on the river, I guess I'd have to call.

[lehighguy]

They never fold overpairs, ever. I keep trying to beat that into my stupid head but it never stays.