JTs faces flop min-check/raise

[ajmargarine]

Reads: Villian tries to be tricky and trappy somewhat. He bluffs scare cards quite a bit with air. He's also overbet the nuts a few times and gotten calls. He seem's OK, but is unpredictable. He's pretty passive preflop but can get aggressive postflop. This session I've raised his preflop limp to $13 at least 12 times. About half those times he called me preflop and c/f'd to my continuation bets. This is the first time he's played back at me. (I've also done this quite a bit with other players at the table, as they all have been real passive preflop).

$1/$3 NLHE 5-handed (Yes, this is online, my small site has some weird limits between NL100 and NL1000).

Hero ($350)
Villian ($420)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
Villian calls $3, Hero raises to $13, 3 folds, Villian calls $10.

Flop: ($28.50) K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Villian checks, Hero bets $20, Villian raises to $40, Hero??

I had settled in to betting $20 the last few times I raised to $13 and got one caller, whether I had the goods or not, so this is what they've been seeing for the last 20 minutes out of me in this situation, a $20 bet.

What should Hero do, and what's his plan for the rest of the hand?

[scdavis0]

Against a player like this I call. There's a really good chance he'll try to represent your actual hand if a diamond hits.

[Bukem_]

Call, use position.

[Big_Jim]

Given stack sizes.. I think calling is really the only way to go.

Any big raise you make here puts you in an ugly spot.

Call down until you improve... debate calling river unimproved.

[soah]

Certainly fold the river unimproved. He hasn't folded the last 12 times just so he can bluff on the 13th.

[Big_Jim]

Many of these villians will continue with weak ass bets on the later streets. In this case, I think the information/chance that he's donking it up, may be worth it.

If he is in the other camp and bets pot or near pot on turn and river, fold.

Call, let your position operate. A miniraise here is just too unlikely for a bluff.

[Bukem_]

Btw I like my chops and start counting the money he is going to give when when he puts me in this spot.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
A miniraise here is just too unlikely for a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's a lot of debate as to the truth of this statement.

I see a lot of donks do it with crap.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A miniraise here is just too unlikely for a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's a lot of debate as to the truth of this statement.

I see a lot of donks do it with crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is exactly why I find it ridiculous when people get min check-raised and then half-pot bet on the turn with AK
on a K743 board and 90% of the board advocates a fold.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Call, let your position operate. A miniraise here is just too unlikely for a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment makes me remember a hand vs. this villian. I had openlimped 88, both blinds call, OP Villian in the BB. Flop is A24; check, check, I bet, he check minraised me, I gave him credit and folded, as the pot was tiny. He shows Q7. After playing with him for an hour or so and getting a feel for him, this very easily could be air from him here.

[scdavis0]

The min check raise bluff is a money play when used effectively. Most people are way too caught up demonizing min-raises of any kind to open up their minds..

[deadmoney98]

Does nobody 3-bet here? You have fold equity against a lot of hands, not to mention pot equity, if you get to see turn AND river. Maybe I am over-aggressive, but at least some of the time I am re-raising here.

[scdavis0]

It's just highly dependent on the opponent. Against a wild one I'd want to call cuz he's likely to go off for a lot of chips if I hit my hand. Against a tight player I'm more likely to 3 bet cuz this type of raise is often a tester with something like KQ.

All in all a call is standard and a 3 bet is more read dependent.

[Big_Jim]

I think 3-bet sucks here, especially with stack sizes.

[ajmargarine]

I really, really wanted to 3-bet the flop, but I didn't and the hand continued...

Preflop: Hero is MP with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
Villian calls $3, Hero raises to $13, 3 folds, Villian calls $10.

Flop: ($28.50) K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue"> (2 players)</font>
Villian checks, Hero bets $20, Villian raises to $40, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($107) 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> (2 players)</font>
Villian checks, Hero bets $65...

My gut said I was good here. I gather from the comments so far, that most would check behind the turn??

[scdavis0]

ugh.. yeah check turn

call basically any bet on a non A, Q, K, 9 non-diamond river

i'd expect thing guy to have something like worse flush draw, QJ, weak king, air mostly

[xorbie]

I would check behind. Makes for a smaller pot, and I want my pair to go to showdown but as I'm not sure if I have the best hand, the best draw (or both) I'd like to keep things manageable.

[NickPoker]

Completely agree with Xorbie here. You check behind to manage the pot so you can call a reasonable river bet if you miss the river.

If you bet, most likely he calls if he is beating you and folds if he isn't. If your gut is correct and you are ahead the only thing you are risking by checking is if hits the river to beat you, and you might even pick off a bluff attempt on the river. If you are wrong and behind you have saved money, I guess there is an outside chance he could fold a hand that is slightly better than yours, which is the only case I see for betting.