$55 bubble hand.

[GutPunch]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

BB (t1850)
UTG (t2130)
Button (t3800)
Hero (t2220)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="red">UTG is allin for(t2130) </font> btn folds, <font color="blue"> Hero??? </font>

Hero, Btn, and UTG have all been fairly agro stealing mostly from the BB guy who has been really passive.

UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2.

Would this be a call basically for all my chips? Or should I wait if I think I can push trash and steal the blinds?

[ClockWyze]

"Big Blind is t200"

Hero (t2220)

anything else need to be said?

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG understands bubble play fairly well, than he should know not to be pushing any two through three opponents with more than 10xBBs.

I think he would have to have a very strong hand here to be doing this. He has two players that have him covered yet to act. If you call, expect to be a coinflip or a big dog the majority of the time. I don't think you are very far ahead here enough to call.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]


UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2.


[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif... If you think pushing any 2 here is good I don't think you understand bubble play very well.

If you think he's pushing 100% of hands then go ahead and make the call. But you're wrong... and you should fold.

[Shillx]

The NE (nash equilibrium) here is ~ 22% CO push/7% Button call/4% SB call/7% BB call. This means you should call with 99+/AQs+/AKo.

He is pretty foolish if he is pushing any two. You are essentially waiting for him in the middle with 77 if he is pushing any2.

Edited for ya

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
The NE here is ~ 22/7/4/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's this mean?

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The NE here is ~ 22/7/4/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's this mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

volunarily put $ in pot
not sure what the 7 is
and 4 = pfr

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
The NE (nash equilibrium) here is ~ 22% CO push/7% Button call/4% SB call/7% BB call. This means you should call with 99+/AQs+/AKo.

He is pretty foolish if he is pushing any two. You are essentially waiting for him in the middle with 77 if he is pushing any2.

Edited for ya

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you shouldn't call with the hands mentioned because of some theory, its unlikely your opponents are playing perfect theoretical poker. In any case I'd always fold here, and would never push 22% of hands as the cutoff in practice.

[ilya]

I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's quite correct to call against any two so if that is in fact his read and it is correct with a reasonable degree of accurcay then a call can become correct. I think an opponent like this may not even exist at the 55's however.

[GutPunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youd be VERY supprised at some of the horrible play.

FWIW, I obviously folded (not that it matters).

I did however want to know if you feel an opponent is pushing any2, would a call be correct given stack/blind size.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youd be VERY supprised at some of the horrible play.

FWIW, I obviously folded (not that it matters).

I did however want to know if you feel an opponent is pushing any2, would a call be correct given stack/blind size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, sorry if that came off the wrong way.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's quite correct to call against any two so if that is in fact his read and it is correct with a reasonable degree of accurcay then a call can become correct. I think an opponent like this may not even exist at the 55's however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, right, this whole hand is essentially a question about UTG's likely range. I think we agree that virtually no one is pushing anything close to any 2 UTG here.

[chisness]

why are you saying you obviously folded when you posted the hand in the first place?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The NE here is ~ 22/7/4/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's this mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

volunarily put $ in pot
not sure what the 7 is
and 4 = pfr

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... no.

It means "UTG should push top 22% of hands", "Cutoff should call a push with top 7% of hands", etc.

The "Nash Equilibrium" part implies that if three of the four players follow the strategy outlined, the fourth player cannot do any better than to also follow the strategy.

So, if everybody knows that everybody else is playing the NE, there is no gain to deviating from it.

It's highly theoretical, obviously, but absent any reads it is in some sense the "best" mathematical answer.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure you should be playing the $50s if you are seriously considering calling here. Then again what do I know, I don't play the $50s myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's quite correct to call against any two so if that is in fact his read and it is correct with a reasonable degree of accurcay then a call can become correct. I think an opponent like this may not even exist at the 55's however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, right, this whole hand is essentially a question about UTG's likely range. I think we agree that virtually no one is pushing anything close to any 2 UTG here.

[/ QUOTE ]

christ, i don't think so.

something tells me that unless villain's range looks like [2-7]x[2-7] (all combos of cards taken from 2-7) you shouldn't be calling here.

a few other snide comments:

1) you're right, he shouldn't be playing the 50s, he should be playing higher so i can get a piece! LOLLERCAUST!!!ELEVEN!

2) he posted the hand because he wanted to know if his fold was a good fold, duh?

3) this is a really easy fold.

4) nash equilibria are, in general, not a great thing to use in poker.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

4) nash equilibria are, in general, not a great thing to use in poker.

This made my day. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Am I the only person that does not think this is so clear cut? I mean why is he pushing? He wants people out of the hand. He could raise, and would probably raise TT+. So, in my opinion, he could be pushing with Ax or 22-99. This is not all game throry here. It is also poker. If he is pushing with Ax, you are at worst a 54% favorite. But maybe he is pushing A6, A5, ...

He could hold 88,99 which is the worst scenario.

But if we think of EV on the hand, and then the resulting tournament, it might merit a call because doubling up with move you into great standing for 1st place. By folding here, you still might come 4th. But, by calling, you are either 4th or in great position for 1st. If this hand was 88, I would call for sure! 77 is tough though. It is really borderline for me. Basically, it comes down to your reads. What is the probability he is doing this with 88,99? What is the probability it is A8-AK or KQ? What is the probability it is A2-A6?

Maybe it is bad strategy, but I play for 1st before I play for 3rd and it has increased my ROI compared to how I used to play.

I am not saying by any means that I would definately make this call. But I am not laying it down as easily as everyone else here.

[tigerite]

It's a terrible strategy. Players like you calling here is a big part of why people profit so much on the bubble as short stacks.

[citanul]

no, you aren't the only one who thinks it's clear cut. but the people who don't think so are very, very wrong.

no amount of "i play for first" could possibly make this correct.

I've had 2000 chips and 4th has 100 and I've come 4th. But I am still happy with my move in that situation. I'm not trying to move up the ladder. I want to win, and if the big chip stack wants to steal my chips, and I have the right cards, I'm making my move for first before I am in the money.

I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st.

I'm not going to lie, I play $22s, not $55s and perhaps that is why I am wrong here.

calling on bubble with mid PP is genius compared to the other crap that happens on the 55s.

I think people over estimate the average 55er...

MY BAD, didnt see the blinds were 100/200. ya, i would fold this as well...but i stand by my statement that we overestimate the skill of the average 55er /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

This whole paragraph is crap, but the last sentence especially is just laughable. Think about it for a bit and you'll understand why.

i agree you should play for first, NO DOUBT! but ignoring all of the stack sizes is a big mistake, IMO. if you truly had 2000 chips when the short stack was 100 and busted to the big stack, i think that is just plain silly.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is pushing with Ax, you are at worst a 54% favorite. But maybe he is pushing A6, A5, ...

He could hold 88,99 which is the worst scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think you greatly overestimate what he could be pushing here.

88, 99 is the worse scenario? Yes, an overpair is the worst scenario, but add TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA to this list. AA/KK is of course less likely because he'd probably try to keep someone in the pot, but you never know. I don't know about you, but I'd be playing QQ/JJ/TT in a manner that would look like I don't want action, because I don't, I want the blinds!

Also, you say if he is playing Ax you're at worst 54%. You're right, and I hate that result! 54% of the time your pretty much out of the tournament in fourth here.

I have a bubble to ITM of 75%, so I'm not taking chances when I'm likely a coinflip or dog like in this situation.

According to SNGPT, he needs to be pushing 75% of hands to make this a +0.5 $EV call. 75% of hands is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T3o+,T2s+,95o+,93s+,86o+,84s+, 76o,75s+,65s. Umm, is he pushing this range?

dang he is good...so his itm distribution is 8 first for every 2 second/third he takes...

Anyone else wanna sign this guy up for coaching??

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I've had 2000 chips and 4th has 100 and I've come 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Judging from your previous posts, you almost definitely played this tournament wrong.

I'm confused? Just because of pure odds of losing a hand I am ahead and losing the resulting tourny? Okay, maybe it is lower than that, I'm not sure. But I certainly do well from that position as I feel as though I play a big stack well.

That is not what I'm saying. I'm saying with over half the chips on the table I will tend to finish first a lot.

[citanul]

i'm gonna stop looking at this thread as every time i do a little part of me dies.

WORD!

[tigerite]

Look you are being told by every single person here you are wrong and still can't see it. Even if somehow by magic you were made HU after "making a call like this", you wouldn't even win 70% of the time if your opponent moved all-in on you every hand. In fact, it wouldn't even be 70% if somehow every other person in the tournament before the bubble had busted on the first hand, and you had called on the first hand of the bubble, thus the blinds were 10/15.

So please, stop being daft.

Hey, I'm just talking about how I play and trying to learn. Okay, I am wrong, I apologize.

hey, we all have gotten our balls busted in here, just initiating you to the club /images/graemlins/smile.gif

if you havent been busted, then you havent made a stand on any topic. keep posting brother!

[tewall]

If you call and lose, you get 0. If you call and win, you have about twice as much as the other two, giving you about a 50% chance of winning. As a gross apoximation, let's say your EV is .4 if you call and win. 77 is going to be let's say 55% to win in this situation. So 55% of the time you win .4, and 45% of the time you win 0. This averages out to a little over .2 If you fold, your EV, without assuming you play any better than your opponents, is .25. So it's easy to see that folding is bad.

You can run this by ICM to get more accurate numbers, but suffice it to say that you need a stronger hand to call in this situation, because the cost of losing is so high. If you lose .25 when you call and lose, but only win .15 when you call and win, you are risking 5 to win 3, which means your calling hands have to be 5 to 3 favorites over whatever range the pusher is pushing with just to break even. Against a random hand, 77 is just barely above that, so if UTG has any standards whatsoever for pushing, calling with 77 will be -EV.

[Elektrik]

I'm amazed at how unecessarily long this thread is.

Citanul wins as usual.

*sigh* 2p2...

[citanul]

how's it going dude? you still in the ER? how's the femme?