10/20 KQs river [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

jason_t

12-07-2005, 12:15 AM

UTG+1 is 35.96/3.62/1.42 after 1000 and MP1 is 41.50/9.47 after 400. The blinds are tight and passive. shant is MP3. This is my first orbit playing with him at 10/20 and he does not know it is me. I think that he knows that the the limpers are bad because I know he datamines.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: I am Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 1 fold, I call, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, I raise, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises

gh9801

12-07-2005, 12:17 AM

What's the big deal? go ahead and threebet.

Jeffage

12-07-2005, 12:20 AM

What's the question?

Jeff

jason_t

12-07-2005, 12:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What's the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

He almost surely has a flush; this is hand reading 101 imo. He's not quite loose enough to be limping tons of suited connectors here. Granted, the /images/graemlins/heart.gifs on the board are such that connectors like 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif and J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif are possible here I think that Ax/images/graemlins/heart.gif hands are more likely given his VPIP.

gonores

12-07-2005, 12:29 AM

I think this is simple hand-reading, and I like a call here. If that makes me a wuss, then it makes me a wuss. I really don't know what else he could have here if he doesn't have Axh and maybe a suited connector or two.

gh9801

12-07-2005, 12:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is simple hand-reading, and I like a call here. If that makes me a wuss, then it makes me a wuss. I really don't know what else he could have here if he doesn't have Axh and maybe a suited connector or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Am I a huge donkey for thinking this is a really easy and standard threebet? If he has the nuts, so be it, but with 35VPIP he can have any suited connector... Like jason implied, he might not even have a flush here although it's the most likely case. I've played hands in the PP 10/20 where in this situation the check/raiser has had as little as 2 pair... I don't see how this is even a question - if you're not going to threebet this then what are you going to threebet? Flame me away

CardSharpCook

12-07-2005, 12:33 AM

of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

gh9801

12-07-2005, 12:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, are you saying call instead of threebet here too?

Jeffage

12-07-2005, 12:48 AM

I raise this as well. Many suited connectors will be played by this type of player up front and they don't all contain the ace. Also, this is online poker...he doesn't even necessarily have to have the flush to make this raise (though obv that is pretty unlikely). I will reraise this everyday of the week - but maybe I suck (feels that way sometimes).

I think this thread will have about 50 replies, mostly bc JasonT posted it and it was a seemingly no brainer hand so people will think there is a big mystical secret within b/c the answer seems so "obvious." I think it is obvious in a limit game online against a loose opponent. Reraise. If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum).

Jeff

jason_t

12-07-2005, 12:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

omfg this is not fold or call, this is call or raise. Who folds here? gg.

jason_t

12-07-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also possible that I just called and got shown 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif and cried over not 3-betting.

Jeffage

12-07-2005, 01:03 AM

One other thing I thought about - what if villian will cap any flush here (as many do online with the 4-bet cap). I think even with some doubts, this swings this to a reraise. I personally would always reraise here, but I think it's an interesting factor to consider that is prob not being looked at.

Also, talking to another poster, and he asked me what I'd do if it was the the 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif rivered. In an actual game, I would reraise and want to beat myself with a stick when it got capped since that card eliminated so many lower flush possibilities. Just thought that was interesting.

Jeff

jason_t

12-07-2005, 01:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
One other thing I thought about - what if villian will cap any flush here (as many do online with the 4-bet cap). I think even with some doubts, this swings this to a reraise. I personally would always reraise here, but I think it's an interesting factor to consider that is prob not being looked at.

Also, talking to another poster, and he asked me what I'd do if it was the the 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif rivered. In an actual game, I would reraise and want to beat myself with a stick when it got capped since that card eliminated so many lower flush possibilities. Just thought that was interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most villains, at least in the games I have played in so far, are fairly passive on the river without the nuts. I think a cap is usually unlikely here with a lower flush.

And I definitely agree with (what I think is) your statement that if the river is the T/images/graemlins/heart.gif I think it's a call.

gonores

12-07-2005, 01:11 AM

I should work on my post reading. I thought this was you vs. shant. It's much closer now, but I think 3-betting is much more viable here, though it's close.

Jeffage

12-07-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Most villains, at least in the games I have played in so far, are fairly passive on the river without the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not my observation when they can raise again but it can't be reraised; just from what I've seen.

[ QUOTE ]
And I definitely agree with (what I think is) your statement that if the river is the T /images/graemlins/heart.gif I think it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but would you beat yourself with a stick?

Jeff

Shillx

12-07-2005, 01:25 AM

If he could have any flush here, he is 3:1 to have a worse one. He probably won't have any flush by looking at his stats though. Certainly JT, J9, T9 are possible hands. I would guess that hands like T7, 76 and 65 are also possible here. So if he limps any Ax and could have all those hands, you are a small underdog against his range. It looks like it will come down to either a THIN (and maybe incorrect) value 3bet/fold or a call. I would just call personally.

gh9801

12-07-2005, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

omfg this is not fold or call, this is call or raise. Who folds here? gg.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any sheep in the herd want to stand up and argue why it's close between a call and raise here? BTW, Villain is not passive, he has like 1.5AF, which is aggro for someone with 35VPIP. I've played a lot of 10/20 on PP lately and I've seen many of these types of players play hands strangely and c/r hands as weak as two pair here.

I still think this is a very clear threebet. No one likes to respond or argue with me because apparently I'm not in with the "in-crowd", I guess.

Entity

12-07-2005, 03:31 AM

Instinctively I 3-bet but I thought about it for just a few minutes and it's wrong. Just call.

GuyOnTilt

12-07-2005, 03:40 AM

Hey Jason,

Just call. He almost will always have a flush here, and A-high make up over 1/3 of his open-limping range from EP.

GoT

Entity

12-07-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

omfg this is not fold or call, this is call or raise. Who folds here? gg.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any sheep in the herd want to stand up and argue why it's close between a call and raise here? BTW, Villain is not passive, he has like 1.5AF, which is aggro for someone with 35VPIP. I've played a lot of 10/20 on PP lately and I've seen many of these types of players play hands strangely and c/r hands as weak as two pair here.

I still think this is a very clear threebet. No one likes to respond or argue with me because apparently I'm not in with the "in-crowd", I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 37.5000 % 37.50% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % 62.50% 00.00% { KhQh }

Take out the retardedly played sets and you're nowhere near a 66% favorite. As is, it's still a call unless you know him well enough that you intend to fold to a cap, and you don't.

gh9801

12-07-2005, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

omfg this is not fold or call, this is call or raise. Who folds here? gg.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any sheep in the herd want to stand up and argue why it's close between a call and raise here? BTW, Villain is not passive, he has like 1.5AF, which is aggro for someone with 35VPIP. I've played a lot of 10/20 on PP lately and I've seen many of these types of players play hands strangely and c/r hands as weak as two pair here.

I still think this is a very clear threebet. No one likes to respond or argue with me because apparently I'm not in with the "in-crowd", I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: 37.5000 % 37.50% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % 62.50% 00.00% { KhQh }

Take out the retardedly played sets and you're nowhere near a 66% favorite. As is, it's still a call unless you know him well enough that you intend to fold to a cap, and you don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I appreciate some in depth reasoning. I guess it's a lot closer than I thought. It's not a clear threebet, but I guess it's close enough that it doesn't really matter if you threebet or call?

I figured this was his range, it's still not high enough equity for KhQh
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.1579 % 63.16% 00.00% { KhQh }
Hand 2: 36.8421 % 36.84% 00.00% { 44-33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h }

newhizzle

12-07-2005, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 37.5000 % 37.50% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % 62.50% 00.00% { KhQh }

[/ QUOTE ]

i could be wrong, but i think a 35% VPIP guy is limping suited crap below T9 early, id raise, but i think its close

cnfuzzd

12-07-2005, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is 35.96/3.62/1.42 after 1000 and MP1 is 41.50/9.47 after 400. The blinds are tight and passive. shant is MP3. This is my first orbit playing with him at 10/20 and he does not know it is me. I think that he knows that the the limpers are bad because I know he datamines.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: I am Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 1 fold, I call, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, I raise, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises

[/ QUOTE ]

If the table has been fairly loose preflop, i think we can increase his hand range beyond what entity picked out. Sure, a 35% vpip isnt extremely high, but if a table has been playing loose, it will encourage the LP player to limp a whole lot more hands. Im not sure if this means we should 3 bet, but it is something to consider.

Sometimes i will 3 bet pf. Yes, i know, this is fairly lag. However, you are never really going to be protecting your hand, so i just start building a huge pot so i can call down and river something against Tags AK.

peace

john nickle

Entity

12-07-2005, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is 35.96/3.62/1.42 after 1000 and MP1 is 41.50/9.47 after 400. The blinds are tight and passive. shant is MP3. This is my first orbit playing with him at 10/20 and he does not know it is me. I think that he knows that the the limpers are bad because I know he datamines.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: I am Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 1 fold, I call, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, I raise, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises

[/ QUOTE ]

If the table has been fairly loose preflop, i think we can increase his hand range beyond what entity picked out. Sure, a 35% vpip isnt extremely high, but if a table has been playing loose, it will encourage the LP player to limp a whole lot more hands. Im not sure if this means we should 3 bet, but it is something to consider.

Sometimes i will 3 bet pf. Yes, i know, this is fairly lag. However, you are never really going to be protecting your hand, so i just start building a huge pot so i can call down and river something against Tags AK.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

My range also includes sets as a counterbalance which are unlikely given his aggression and likelihood of popping the turn or flop. The 8h on the board diminishes a lot of EP limping hands he can have given a 35% VPIP.

SGS

12-07-2005, 04:41 AM

This is an easy 3-bet. It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

SGS

blumpkin22

12-07-2005, 04:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain this.

KramerTM

12-07-2005, 04:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's considering all possible combinations of two hearts here. Doesn't really make sense to do that and is counter to how you are supposed to read a hand. Clearly there are a lot more combos of A/images/graemlins/heart.gifX/images/graemlins/heart.gif than two hearts below a Q.

Entity

12-07-2005, 05:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy 3-bet. It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

SGS

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not. First of all, in general, people are much looser in the blinds against raises when you see this sort of stat -- a 35/5 guy -- rather than just limping random trash UTG. That said, just for the sake of argument, I entered "38%" into the Stove to figure out what the top 38% of hands was, then filtered by what was suited.

A2s+,K3s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s

Unfortunately to achieve this range, we have to remove the following hands:

K3s+, Q5s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s.

That leaves us with, in the suited realm, J7s, J9s, JTs, T9s, 97s, T7s and suited Aces. That's 6 possible river flushes that we beat, and A2s, A5s, A6s, A7s, A9s, ATs, and AJs that we lose to. Of course, pokerstove's estimates aren't perfect and we might be able to add a few more hands to his range -- maybe 76s because the table was great, or maybe 76s and 96s and J6s because our sample size isn't perfect? Regardless, when we add these combos in, and include the fact that he's most likely playing a set or two pair faster on the turn, we're not ahead of his range 66% of the time. If we knew that he would only cap the river with the nuts we could make a somewhat-thin value 3-bet here, intending to fold to a cap, but I don't think we have a good enough read to be attempting such a play in a large pot.

So yeah. Call. And enough of this "3-bet and it isn't close" [censored], because not only is it not a 3-bet, but we're going to have to tweak our read or the information we have to make this a 3-bet. We go with what we have, and what we've got says we call.

Rob

Entity

12-07-2005, 05:04 AM

These stove results are from a player slightly looser than the one we have profiled here:

Hand 1: 38.8842 % 38.88% 00.00% { 88, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h }
Hand 2: 61.1158 % 61.12% 00.00% { KhQh }

Pokerstove is smart enough not to let duplicate cards mess with its results, so I just entered a fairly wide range of suited hands preflop that a player even slightly looser than this homie might limp.

Rob

KDawgCometh

12-07-2005, 05:23 AM

I'm three betting here all day and all night. He is raising on a lesser flush a lot more often then he is raising with the nut flush. How bad are the limpers, if you three bet shant PF, will they call, cause if they will, I think putting a few more bets into the pot works for our hand

KDawgCometh

12-07-2005, 05:28 AM

ent, I think that we can add in a lot of suited hands to this guy that look pretty to him because they are soooted.

Shillx

12-07-2005, 05:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
ent, I think that we can add in a lot of suited hands to this guy that look pretty to him because they are soooted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try doing some EV calcs 1st.

Pretend that he could have any flush and only caps the nuts. We are dumb and call should he cap. We are a 3:1 favorite to win the pot.

EV just call = 0
EV 3bet = 6bb-3bb/4 - .5bb = .25bb

So best case we win .25bb by 3betting here. Obviously we win more if we can 3bet/fold but that is a whole new ballgame. The point is that he isn't going to be limping suited junk UTG anywhere near as much as he will be limping Axs. If he were a 70/5 then sure I would certainly agree.

SGS

12-07-2005, 06:44 AM

Totally overlooked that. I would like to say I thought that it was the BB who check-raised thus increasing the likelihood of random hearts, but then I would just be lying. I agree with you that this is probably just a call.

SGS

SGS

12-07-2005, 06:48 AM

I agree, I totally didn't think about the increased possibilitys of Axs. I just saw that the guy was loose passive PF, saw that we had the 2nd nuts, and figured he could have random trash hearts. I agree with you that calling is probably better.

SGS

PokerBob

12-07-2005, 07:30 AM

I think I am calling the flop here. I am 3 betting that river all fothermucking day.

PokerBob

12-07-2005, 07:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

He almost surely has a flush; this is hand reading 101 imo. He's not quite loose enough to be limping tons of suited connectors here. Granted, the /images/graemlins/heart.gifs on the board are such that connectors like 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif and J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif are possible here I think that Ax/images/graemlins/heart.gif hands are more likely given his VPIP.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he is passive enough to limp KQo.

PokerBob

12-07-2005, 07:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also possible that I just called and got shown 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif and cried over not 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

we both know 35VPIP ain't limping that.

jason_t

12-07-2005, 07:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has the nuts, so be it. And I'm sure he did...or this post might have been on the cutting room floor (and no, none of this is an an insult to Jason - it is the nature of message boards, poker and this forum).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also possible that I just called and got shown 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif and cried over not 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

we both know 35VPIP ain't limping that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point.