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[krishanleong]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Villian was slightly loose passivish. Little weak too.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

I'm a big proponent of playing draws passively when it's a good spot, but I think you should definitely raise the flop here. The villain is passive so he won't 3bet too often and knock the BB out. Even if he did 3bet BB will often call. Raising reduces your implied odds on the turn, but a lot of times the passive villain will check if a club hits anyway, especially an overcard.

Raising will often buy you a free card. Plus you have your 33% equity plus a King which will often be good and possibly a 7. Therefore the raise doesn't have to give you a free card too often to be +EV.

I don't like the turn raise because the loose monkey isn't folding anything ever. These plays just never work at 10/20. Never.

Raise the flop for value if nothing else. Make a decision on the turn after that.

Now look at what's happened here: SB donks out into 2 opponents, which usually ins't a pure-bluff (and there's not much to semi-bluff). On the turn he is neither folding a 6 nor a J. Putting 2BB into a 5.5BB pot when you've got about 25% pot equity and opening yourself up to a 3-bet from a 6 doesn't seem too hot here.

[TStoneMBD]

im really, really, really not a fan of this. raise the flop and dont raise the turn. your equity is so huge with 12+ outs.

[7ontheline]

Looks like I'm late to the party, but I agree with raising the flop for a free card and am down on raising the turn. SB has a piece of the board if he's donking 2 streets, and your total equity is not enough to make this a value raise when your fold equity is likely so low. His loose-passiveness just reinforces the need for a flop raise since you likely buy a free card that way.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
im really, really, really not a fan of this. raise the flop and dont raise the turn. your equity is so huge with 12+ outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off everything everyone said about raising the flop I understand. It's my normal line in this spot. My coach doesn't really like it though.

It's not so much about pot equity as it is about fold equity. I don't know if this is the correct spot for it since he did fire into 2 opponents on the turn on an uncoordinated board but the turn raise should, in certain spots, have a decent amount of fold equity.

Krishan

[Wynton]

I don't think you've got great fold equity here. A slightly loose/passive opponent has bet twice into 2 opponents (and the pf raiser). And now you raise when another flush draw appears, without a K or A showing up. It just doesn't seem likely villain is going to fold.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
It just doesn't seem likely villain is going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I didn't actually raise the turn. But the turn raise with a 8+ out draw is something I intend to work into my game.

I still think not raising the flop is an interesting play.

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It just doesn't seem likely villain is going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I didn't actually raise the turn. But the turn raise with a 8+ out draw is something I intend to work into my game.

I still think not raising the flop is an interesting play.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising this turn is kinda bad. If he has a 6, you might get 3-bet, even if he is passive, and putting in 3 bets rather than 1 sucks. Also, since he is passive, he isn´t folding his top pair, and so there isn´t much else that you are hoping to fold out. Raising the flop just has too much value not to in this situation.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop just has too much value not to in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you quantify it?

Run these scenerios. Both call the flop raise, you hit the turn get 1 bet from 1 opponent on turn + river. Both call the raise, you check the turn and hit the river and get 1 bet on river. Both call raise you check turn and miss.

Versus, calling the flop hitting the turn and getting 2 BB on turn, 1 on river. calling flop, calling turn (middle player folds) hitting river and getting 2 BB on river. Calling flop, calling turn, folding river.

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

I´ve got to write a paper in the next 45 minutes, so if I finish before then, I will do the math. This seems simple enough that anyone else should be able to do that math though. Did you already do the math and come out with calling the flop being better?

Well, im not raising K7s in middle position but perhaps you can easily get away with it...I think this kind of hand is +ev if it picks up the blinds but -ev if it plays out. I dont like turn bet, what are you raising in that position that hes giving you credit for A6? Also keep in mind, hes passive, if hes betting this may have made him a monster and you just threw your foot into the trap. I raise the flop all the time, but its not a big error not to especially with the overcaller
cdl

Raise the flop. This isn't about FE at all, it's about free card equity. This kind of opponent is the perfect player to use a flop raise against. Save the slow-played draw semibluff for LAGs and TAGs, and remember to use it sparingly.

Against a LPP type, there's no reason to pay 3 small bets to see the river with your FD when you can pay 2 small bets almost all of the time.

EDIT: About the subject title....

Nothing's new in this game. Hold'em has been out for 30 years and every move you can think of has been tried at least once.

[danzasmack]

My dad read Barry G's book and said that was his favorite part - Barry put in something about calling the flop with a flush draw and then raising the turn.

Here's why I don't like it - you raised pf. SB bets out. You say he is "loose/passive" so i think it's safe to say this bet means he has a jack or some kind of made hand. I'd say he folds the turn here almost never. If the turn was an A, K, Q then i like your raise (even if you didn't have the K) because then you may get a weak/passive to fold.

That being said, I make this play almost 100% of the time in a blind battle, or if I have position on the pfr (iow if i cold called - but i don't post those hands because ill get flamed for cold calling lol)

Edit: here i raise the flop

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: About the subject title....

Nothing's new in this game. Hold'em has been out for 30 years and every move you can think of has been tried at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say it was something new for you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Krishan

Why wouldn't you raise the flop? It's for a value given the flush draw and K overcard, plus you have the option to take a free card on the turn.

[TStoneMBD]

the games that i play in might be different from yours, but turn semibluff raises get paid off every time. i raise the flop and bet the turn, they are more convinced that way and i find semibluffing like that works much better. i dont think you should start semibluffing the turn just to add trickiness to your game. do it against opponents who you think are folding hands against you to your turn raises especially if they dont trust your flop raises. also try to make sure they arent the type to 3bet your turn raise.

Good Point.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop just has too much value not to in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you quantify it?

Run these scenerios. Both call the flop raise, you hit the turn get 1 bet from 1 opponent on turn + river. Both call the raise, you check the turn and hit the river and get 1 bet on river. Both call raise you check turn and miss.

Versus, calling the flop hitting the turn and getting 2 BB on turn, 1 on river. calling flop, calling turn (middle player folds) hitting river and getting 2 BB on river. Calling flop, calling turn, folding river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

My quick EV calcs show the flop raise withthe assumptions you laid out being slightly more EV. Others can check my math.

Scenario 1 (flop raise):

(.24)(6.5BB) + (.76)[(.24)(5.5BB) + (.76)(-1BB)] = 1.9856BB

Scenario 2(call down):

(.24)(6.5BB) + (.76)[(.24)(6.5BB) + (.76)(-1.5BB)] = 1.8792BB

Edit: To clarify, for simplicity's sake I just counted flush draw outs (becuase I did not want to discount for King outs which are going to be good often but not always; I also rounded percentages for the nine-outer without making adjustments for one additional card beng out on the turn).

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
the games that i play in might be different from yours, but turn semibluff raises get paid off every time. i raise the flop and bet the turn, they are more convinced that way and i find semibluffing like that works much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

We play in the same games. It's really tough trying to integrate new plays into your repetoire. Some things work at different limits. Sometimes the board texture is critical, other times it can be the player read. I don't have a good feel for which semi-bluff works better at 10/20-20/40.

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think you should start semibluffing the turn just to add trickiness to your game. do it against opponents who you think are folding hands against you to your turn raises especially if they dont trust your flop raises. also try to make sure they arent the type to 3bet your turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to add trickyness to my game. I edited the hand because I did not raise the turn. I called. This is a spot where I think my coach might have liked a raise. Raising the turn with a 8+ out draw was something we talked about. I think the move can work well and I will continue to experiement with it.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

i think you overestimate the difference in implied odds between calling the flop and raising it. He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing. Also raising flop makes pot bigger so if you hit guys are more likely to peel with things like small club.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you overestimate the difference in implied odds between calling the flop and raising it. He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing. Also raising flop makes pot bigger so if you hit guys are more likely to peel with things like small club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because I talk like I think a flop call is good doesn't mean anything. I'm not sure what is better. There are lots of arguments each way and it's not clear. (I haven't done the EV calcs and I should).

Can you talk about times where you do call the flop with a flush draw? Generally speaking I'm always in the raise the flop because of equity + free card.

If he doesn't bet into me on the turn all the time, the value of a free card has to be dimished as well. I agree he doesn't lead everytime.

Krishan

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop just has too much value not to in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you quantify it? &lt;scenarios snipped&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a matter if pot equity. Do you get more equity on a flop raise or the turn raise?

The flop raise is strictly for value, you have little fold equity. The turn raise is definately value -EV, so the question becomes: does this turn raise have enough fold equity to overcome the flop equity you gave up by not raising the flop?

Fold equity is tough to quantify, but we can quantify our equity by value. We have 12 outs ~ 45% pot equity at the flop.

Scenario: flop raise
Flop raise = +3SB *.45 - 1SB(your cost to raise) = +.17BB
Turn = +1BB * .25 = .25BB (25% shot we made our hand and bet the turn for value, costs 0BB to take the free card)
River = +1BB * .45 = .45BB (we had a 45% of making the hand by the river)
Total = +.87BB

Scenario: Raise the turn as a semi-bluff on a miss.
Flop call = +0BB
Turn raise = (2BB * .45) - (2BB * .55) = -.1BB (we get .45*2BB if we hit or make it on the river, we lose 2*.55BB if we miss because we could still hit the river.)
River = +1BB * .45
Total = +.35BB

So, waiting until the turn to raise is a net -.52BB over raising the flop. The question is, does the added fold equity gain back more than .52BB? Adjust for the fact that the BB might come along and foil the fold equity, that we might make our hand on the turn and lose it on the river, and that we had fold equity in our flop raise line if we followed up on the turn.

And perhaps most important, if we do fold them out on the turn with a semi-bluff we lose our .45BB equity we'd get on the river on a made hand, which really means we're giving up .97BB (I think, the percentages on each permutation are starting to lose me...). And how do we know they won't fold to a raise when the flush hits if they'll fold when it doesn't hit?

I don't really know, seems like giving up the .52BB with all the caveats would require a lot of fold equity on the turn.

Do the numbers look ok? Seems like I always screw up something.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
(I haven't done the EV calcs and I should).


[/ QUOTE ]

You can look at my calcs above in this thread. I undercounted your outs however. But you could use that forumla making the necessary adjustments based on the numebr of outs you think youhave. I gave you only 9 but I think you in fact have more.

[krishanleong]

numbers look okay. I think. The thing is I think calling the flop and raising any street you hit/folding the river if you don't is a worthy line.

This turn raise is clearly dependent on your fold equity which because villian fires into 2 on a relatively uncoordinated flop doesn't seem good.

Krishan

[Zygote]

i would raise the flop and take a free card on the turn

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did my equity calcs and when he doesn't bet into you on the turn, you come out better calling the flop because you get a free card when you miss and 1 BB when you hit. When you raise the flop you just cost yourself the extra SB.

So him checking the turn is an argument for not raising the flop.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

unless he is more likely to check when either a K or club comes

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
unless he is more likely to check when either a K or club comes

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how to account for that in my calcs but you are correct. Can we call it a wash?

Krishan

[ArturiusX]

If I suspect the villians are thinking players (not even good players, just observant ones with a memory), I try to mix up how I play draws a bit to encourage getting paid off more. I don't think I'd neccesary make this play in this situation, but if I had been doing the standard "raise the flop, take the freebie" a few times I'd definitely consider this.

[luckyharr]

The villain should know that the 6 didn't help your hand, and if he thinks it did he might put you on a new heart draw. I don't think he's folding anything that beats you. I would like this play more if the turn was an Ace or Queen since it's easier to sell that the turn hit you. There's the occasional 10/20 type who donk bets almost every pot until someone else takes control of the hand. I like this play against that specific type of player, but I think raising the flop and betting the turn would be the right play against a normal weak 10/20 player, or take a free card against a player that calls down with any pair or an Ace.