View Full Version : river value bet checkup
tyler_cracker
12-06-2005, 11:11 PM
Table is loose passive and generally gives me an erection.
Hero has JJ in CO. Couple limpers, Hero RAISES, everyone calls.
Flop (12 SB): Q 5 2 rainbow (6 players)
Checks to me, Hero BETS, everyone calls.
Turn (9 BB): 3 (6 players)
Checks to me, Hero BETS, 1 fold, everyone else calls.
River (13 BB): K (5 players)
Checks to me, Hero...? (Button remains to act behind us)
Value bet? Why or why not? If so, what's your plan if Button raises? if someone check/raises?
ZenMusician
12-06-2005, 11:16 PM
Hero Checky...your hand has been outdrawn too often.
There are no draws on the flop that didn't get there on
the turn (more or less). You are facing a weak Q at least.
If you bet you have to face:
...what's your plan if Button raises? if someone check/raises
I don't like overcalling if Puck bets either...
-ZEN
tyler_cracker
12-06-2005, 11:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like overcalling if Puck bets either...
[/ QUOTE ]
Alpha Force is at my table? Sweet!
(or, if you prefer:)
The cast of A Midsummer Night's Dream is at my table? Sweet!!
ZenMusician
12-06-2005, 11:28 PM
...or that raunchy dude from the MTV real world series?
Oh......and check call!
-ZEN
I say check and evaluate action behind. Probably call for just 1 bet.
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet. IMO with this many people there's too good of a chance that someone has you beat, most likely from the flop. I check and reevaluate.
bozlax
12-06-2005, 11:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet. IMO with this many people there's too good of a chance that someone has you beat, most likely from the flop. I check and reevaluate.
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. I was going to say I'd call this a place for a bet/fold. Bet on the longshot chance that you can make the weak queen fold (I guess that makes in not a value bet, tho, so you're right, Redd). Fold because if you get raised anywhere it's at least a queen.
benkath1
12-06-2005, 11:55 PM
I can't do it. Having that Q on the board was scary enough with that many callers. I check call this.
I dunno dude - how often do you suspect someone folds a queen here? I'd say <1% of the time.
tyler_cracker
12-07-2005, 12:43 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, i thought it might make a reasonable exercise for that reason.
Except now bozlax is advocating bet/fold. Curiouser and curiouser.
Shillx
12-07-2005, 12:52 AM
You aren't winning this pot very often, and that was before the king came off. I guess you can use that as a little extra incentive to check here.
Shillx
12-07-2005, 12:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Congrats, tyler; you started one of a rare group (I could count them on both hands) of threads where I think the river is not a value-bet. IMO with this many people there's too good of a chance that someone has you beat, most likely from the flop. I check and reevaluate.
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. I was going to say I'd call this a place for a bet/fold. Bet on the longshot chance that you can make the weak queen fold (I guess that makes in not a value bet, tho, so you're right, Redd). Fold because if you get raised anywhere it's at least a queen.
[/ QUOTE ]
C'mon boz...
You would have to slip in the ruffie, goto the bathroom, get a beer and then come back and bet in order to get a queen to fold. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif
The last line doesn't make any sense either. They are going to call all the way and then raise a river king with a pair of queens. /images/graemlins/confused.gif
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