$200NL AQs - Value bet river?

[Lady Dont Tekno]

Villain is 41/20/2.5

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO ($199.58)
Button ($426.30)
SB ($340.20)
BB ($201.81)
UTG ($227.55)
Hero ($209.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, BB calls $14.

Turn: ($45) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30.

River: ($105) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[AcesUp2121]

I think so.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

[ QUOTE ]
I think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a really obvious value bet? Sorry just a new situation for me at this level.

[xorbie]

Villain go to showdown % is an important statistic too. I would bet around $60 here.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain go to showdown % is an important statistic too. I would bet around $60 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Went to showdown is 33% but only 100 hands.

This was my exact river line and he pushed for about 90 more which I figured was a standard call.

[AcesUp2121]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain go to showdown % is an important statistic too. I would bet around $60 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Went to showdown is 33% but only 100 hands.

This was my exact river line and he pushed for about 90 more which I figured was a standard call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, I don't see that many river checkraises at this level. Probably have to call it, but I think you're never good.

[HardCory]

Im pretty sure ur value bet is good here. It is quite possible that he is drawing to the nut flush on the flop and connected with an ace. If he flopped a set i think he would have (should have) played it faster. His stats translate to a value bet here

[Big_Jim]

Any ace calls this bet. Bet $60-75 or so.

[jzpiano14]

geez....river checkraise sucks, i would make a call there, but would be super unhappy about it, I think your beat here 95% of the time. Make a note of it and move on.

i would check here, the only hand that will call you is Axh, and i think there's a greater chance of you getting c/r allin by a badly played TK or some trips/fh hand