TT flops OESD, do I have FE on the turn?

Absolute 100$ 6-Max
Hero has TT on the CO and raises to 4
Villain's stats after 50 hands are 39 VPIP, 2.5 Aggression

Folded to villain on BB (45$), who calls

Pot(8.5)
Flop: Jh Qc 9h
BB leads for 4, Hero calls

Pot(16.5)
Turn: 5s
BB bets 4, Hero?

Compare and contrast calling, raising to X amount, or whatever line you would have taken if you will. Keep in mind villain's stack size.

I probably would've raised the flop to about 12, folded to a raise. As played, I'd probably raise the turn and fold to a raise :P

[rachelwxm]

raise flop?

[DoomSlice]

Who needs fold equity when you've got sufficient pot equity?

Raising the flop here is fine. You plan on taking the free card, correct? And folding to further betting (provided you don't have odds to call to chase the OESD outs, villain could easily have something like KQ to warrant the T outs no good). As played, does raising the turn have enough FE to make it worthwhile? And how much are you raising the turn to?

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Who needs fold equity when you've got sufficient pot equity?

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Yea, thats why I'm asking if I should just call here. His turn bet = weak though, and I like picking on weak /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Kyriefurro]

I don't think you have a whole lot of FE on this turn. That 5 didn't do much to change things. More importantly, villain's weak bet here looks really suspicious, especially with that 2.5 AGF. I'm guessing he's got 2-pair or better.

You have immediate odds to call for the straight on the turn, so folding is out of the question. Raising now has at least SOME fold equity, which would net you a $12 profit. However calling seems to me to be a better option.

If the river is a blank, villain will probably lead again. A (big) raise here looks an aweful lot like a slow-played flopped straight which would be very hard for villain to call. If you hit your straight on the river, villain may still have a hard time letting go of a TP/2-pair/set hand and will call a reasonably large bet (maybe even all-in). I would expect a check/call from villain here with most of his possible holdings.

So calling this turn bet seems the best option.

[DoomSlice]

I do too, but when given the chance to draw really cheaply (where I might get paid off more when I hit) or bluff right there, I usually take the cheap card.

Heck, you can even bluff the river if you don't hit. If he seems weak now he'll probably seem weak there too.

Alright, suppose you just call, and the river is a rag heart. He checks. Would you stab at it, or not bother? If so, how much? I'm not sure if villain is good enough as I don't have a good enough read yet, but if he is he would be aware that its unlikely I would be slowplaying a set or the likes on that flop, making raising the turn perhaps less convincing. Also, would you have raised this flop and then taken the free card if you were in this spot Doom?

I do like raising the flop, but it is strictly for that free card value, as I do not think my FE is substantial there. Therefor, I wonder if calling flop, and then calling his scared bet isn't the best way to go about it. The turn card didn't change anything, so if I didn't feel I had much FE on the flop, the answer to my own question would be that raising the turn here kinda sucks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DoomSlice]

My decision to raise the flop would be based on my read of the player, specifically how likely he is to reraise right there (that would be a pain) and how likely he is to come out firing again on the turn.

Against an unknown I usually do raise the flop in order to get the free card or disguise my draw when it hits on the turn.

In your case, if he checks on the river, I look at my watch and fire a 1/2 potish sized bet if the second hand is past the 30 and hope that he folds a jack (JT maybe?).

[fathertime]

The 4 dollar bet is often a q,j,9 wk, none of which are folding unless you get real aggressive--and even then the ss may call you down; it could also be a draw or a pp. If he is a typical bad shortstack, I'll play it passively and expect to see any number of hands at showdown:

Recent hand against a ss, .5/1nl, ss has about $30: I raise on button with kq, 2 to flop, q39r; I bet 2/3rds pot; get raised all in by ss, holding j9o; I instacall and mhig.

I'm assuming .5/1 at Absolute.